Drought in Oklahoma, May 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1145 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Light rain showers expected through Friday evening across far
  southern Oklahoma and western north Texas with minor
  accumulations (<0.25") expected.

- Cool, temperatures are expected through Saturday, then a
  warming trend to above normal temperatures into next week.

- Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Sunday afternoon
  across portions of northwest Oklahoma with breezy, warm and dry
  conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Mostly cloudy skies today in an upslope post-frontal airmass,
giving way to similar cool, below normal temperatures in the 60s.
Mostly zonal flow aloft with the best sub-tropical jet and moisture
across Texas, specifically central and southern Texas. There is a
low chance (<30%) for light shower activity across portions of
western north Texas and near the Red River this afternoon and
evening. Soundings indicate nearly zero instability, so not
expecting much in the way of lightning with any activity.

Additionally, there are light rain showers across southern Kansas
along a weak front associated with a disturbance embedded in the
flow around an upper low over southern Ontario. Most of the activity
will remain in Kansas as the disturbance lifts into the Midwest.
Weak radar echoes are present across northern Oklahoma from KTLX,
but most, if not all, of the activity is not reaching the surface.

This evening, a shortwave will approach Baja Cali and bring some
increasing mid-level moisture with the westerly flow over Texas. The
wave will shift eastward overnight and rain chances will increase
across southwest and west Texas. Chances for rain showers begins to
increase early Friday morning across western north Texas and the
shortwave drives the moisture east northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday night)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Heading into Friday morning, the shortwave will approach southwest
Texas and remain on a southern track across Texas, which will keep
the better rain chances to the south of the forecast area. However,
there is increasing chances for some of the rain showers to clip
western north Texas into far southern Oklahoma. Soundings show
little to no instability as far north as the Red River with the
farther south progression of the shortwave and associated lift, so
the potential for any embedded storms with lightning remains very
low. Once again, cool and cloudy conditions are expected Friday with
highs in the 60s.

Another shortwave late Friday across the Plains will bring
additional chances for rain showers to Kansas, similar to today.
However, chances are fairly low (<10%) for this activity to persist
into northern Oklahoma. If something persists, accumulations would
remain very light, only a few hundredths.

Rain chances across the forecast area will quickly come to an end by
Saturday morning as northwesterly flow returns aloft. Temperatures
will warm a bit closer to normal in the 70s by Saturday and sunny
skies returning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

South to southwesterly low-level flow redevelops on Sunday and
warmer temperatures are expected each day Sunday through Tuesday.
A few waves in the northern stream aloft will create a low
potential of showers or storms in the north Monday and Tuesday,
but the highest chances of precipitation will be farther north.
Current models suggest that a cold front may push into the area
late Tuesday in the wake of one of these northern stream waves. We
will watch the trend over the next few days for that.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1143 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Thick mid-level cloud cover will continue across far western and
southern Oklahoma and western north Texas well into daytime. Lower
cloud cover (though likely still VFR) will be possible beginning
late tonight in parts of western north Texas where periods of rain
are expected. Skies will clear toward sunset with VFR conditions
continuing. Winds will remain out of the northeast.

Meister

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  67  49  68  46 /  10  10  10   0
Hobart OK         66  49  67  43 /  20  20  30  10
Wichita Falls TX  66  54  66  46 /  30  30  50  10
Gage OK           65  40  67  40 /  20  10  10  10
Ponca City OK     67  45  69  45 /  10   0   0  10
Durant OK         68  55  66  48 /  20  20  40  10

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...23
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...04