Drought in Oklahoma, May 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1208 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1205 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

 - Light rainfall amounts for southeast Oklahoma and areas of
   sprinkles further north into early Saturday.

 - Temps below normal through Saturday then a warming trend.

 - Thunderstorm chances return for the first part of the work week.
   Some severe weather potential will exist with details refined in
   later forecasts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Near persistent trends will continue through Friday with mostly
cloudy skies and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below seasonal
normals. Primary corridor of rain will remain well south of the of
the forecast area with only a low chance of light amounts near the
Red River counties. Strong shortwave trough does rotate across the
region by Friday night and most guidance does depict patchy light
precip amounts through the forecast area from Friday afternoon
through early Saturday morning. Fcst soundings support mid level
convection is possible however very dry sub cloud layers persist. A
brief shower and maybe a thunderstorm into NE OK is possible Friday
evening, but overall the chance for measurable precip continues to
look very low. Forecast will include areas of sprinkles and a low
chance of light rain showers with overall weather impact expected to
be nil.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1042 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Pleasant early May weekend ahead with mild temps and clearing skies
on Saturday. Southerly winds become gusty at times Sunday marking
the start of a warming trend.

Good agreement on the timing for the next wave to influence the
region for early next week. Expectation is preceding warm advection
wing will increase shower and storm chances Monday night into
Tuesday morning ahead of the cold front passage and continued chance
of storms through Tuesday afternoon. Overall coverage within both
precip regimes is more uncertain. Sufficient instability and shear
profiles may develop to support a window of severe weather
potential. Temps warm to nearer normal ahead of the frontal passage
followed by a return to cooler and drier weather for mid to late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Mainly quiet aviation conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will generally be light out of the northeast to east-
northeast. Speeds will also generally be low except for a few
gusts to 10-15 kts during the afternoon. Scattered mid clouds will
persist through the periods with thick high clouds, but generally
at or above 10 kft. A few low clouds could develop for KFSM or
KMLC but generally with limited coverage. No rain is expected, but
a few sprinkles could occur in the south.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  47  70  48 /   0  10   0   0
FSM   71  46  72  45 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   70  45  73  47 /  10  10   0   0
BVO   69  42  70  43 /   0  20   0   0
FYV   68  42  68  41 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   65  42  65  42 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   68  44  69  45 /   0  10   0   0
MIO   65  42  66  43 /   0   0   0   0
F10   68  45  70  47 /   0  10   0   0
HHW   66  46  71  46 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
437 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-012145-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
437 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This Evening and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected through tonight.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Spotter Activation Not Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards.
SUNDAY...High Wind Potential.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Much more settled conditions will prevail through the weekend and
into early next week. Showers will be possible during the day
Friday, particularly across southeast Oklahoma, but little impact
is expected. Thunderstorm chances increase for the early to
middle part of next week with some severe potential during this
time.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
717 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     Tornado          1 SSE Apple             34.12N 95.41W
04/28/2026                   Choctaw            OK   NWS Storm Survey

            A tornado uprooted numerous trees, snapped
            numerous large tree limbs, and damaged a
            home.

&&

EJC