Hail and Damaging Wind in Oklahoma, April 1, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

 - Severe weather chances increase late this afternoon through
   early tonight, particularly across E OK. All severe hazards
   possible.

 - Strong winds develop late tonight through Thursday morning,
   especially across northeast Oklahoma.

 - Additional round of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday
   evening as a cold front moves through the region.

 - Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A frontal boundary and sfc trough were draped across northern
portions of the area this morning, extending from the south Texas
panhandle well into Missouri. This front will tend to lift back
north through the day as lee troughing intensifies ahead of an
approaching mid-upper level shortwave. As this occurs, dewpoints
increase into the mid 60s across central and eastern Oklahoma,
east of a sharpening dryline across the Texas panhandle/Western
Oklahoma. This will set the stage for thunderstorm development
along the dryline and frontal boundary by late this afternoon and
evening.

Before this occurs, warm sector showers and embedded
thunderstorms will continue into this afternoon, associated with
a subtle wave within the warm advection regime. Severe weather is
unlikely with this activity, though any storm lingering into the
late afternoon could intensify as instability and shear increases.

Storms that initiate near the front will be a greater concern for
our area late this afternoon and evening, generally north of I-44
and near the OK-KS border. MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg, steep
lapse rates, and gradually increasing deep/low layer shear will
allow storms late this afternoon through the evening to strengthen
and become severe. Large hail and damaging winds will be the
primary hazards initially, but tornadoes will also be possible as
the low level jet intensifies this evening. Storms that initiated
off the dryline will have moved east across central Oklahoma and
will be approaching the CWA by late evening. By this time, these
storms are likely to be more linear in nature, with a higher
damaging wind threat and decreasing hail potential. Tornadoes will
remain possible within the line as low level shear/helicity
becomes maximized during this evening. Currently expect highest
severe potential to occur between 6 PM and 3 AM tonight as
frontal/dryline storms move east across E OK.

By the early morning hours, storms will be moving into NW AR with
at least a low severe threat persisting. However, a weakening
trend is expected as instability wanes with time and eastward
extent. In addition to the severe potential, heavy rainfall will
be possible tonight as PWATs will be anomalously high for this
time of year. The recent dry spell may help alleviate concerns to
some degree... but flash flooding will certainly still be
possible with rain rates up to 1-2 in/hr, especially across
northeast Oklahoma.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to decay and move east
through Thursday morning, with gradually clearing skies behind it.
Winds will become quite gusty out of the south-southwest
following storms tonight into Thursday morning as the sfc low
passes just north of the area. As of now, gusts are forecast to
remain mostly less than 40 mph, but there is at least low
potential for advisory-level winds late tonight through early
Thursday afternoon, particularly across northeast Oklahoma.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday, but there will be at
least a low chance of showers and thunderstorms across far E OK
and NW AR during the afternoon as the trough axis moves through
the region. No severe weather is expected. Some WAA showers/storms
remain possible Thursday night ahead of another system which will
impact the area on Friday. Strong moisture advection will take
place Friday morning as a sfc low strengthens across the central
high plains. By the late afternoon and evening hours, a cold front
will move southeast into the region, with widespread thunderstorm
coverage expected along the boundary. Severe weather will again
be possible with this activity, particularly damaging wind gusts.
Highest severe potential is expected across northeast Oklahoma,
decreasing to the south and east as the front moves through the
region.

By Saturday morning, rain chances will be exiting the FA with
post-frontal high pressure filling in behind it. This will provide
quieter weather through the weekend, albeit much cooler with
highs in the 60s. Temperatures gradually recover going into next
week as southerly flow attempts to re-establish itself. Long range
guidance suggests the pattern will remain dynamic next week with
additional rain and storm chances by mid-late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are expanding in coverage to the west
of the area currently and will be moving into portions of NE OK
over the next hour. A storm could still graze by KBVO this
evening, but mostly showers are expected there through the
evening. More widespread coverage of thunderstorms is expected to
move into E OK late this evening from the west and progress across
the area through the overnight hours. Gusty winds and heavy
rainfall will be possible with any storms, along with a period of
MVFR cigs from late tonight into tomorrow morning. Area of showers
and storms should exit NW AR by mid morning tomorrow with
clearing skies from west to east through the afternoon. Gusty
southwest winds will follow the storm system tomorrow afternoon
across all sites.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   65  85  68  80 / 100  10  10  50
FSM   66  83  66  83 /  70  70  60  60
MLC   66  83  68  80 /  90  30  30  50
BVO   62  83  63  80 / 100  10  10  60
FYV   64  80  63  80 /  70  70  50  60
BYV   64  78  65  80 /  60  60  50  60
MKO   64  83  65  80 /  90  30  20  50
MIO   63  81  65  78 /  90  30  30  50
F10   63  83  65  79 /  90  20  10  50
HHW   64  81  65  78 /  80  70  30  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...04

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
500 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-022200-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
500 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Mainly Northwest of I-44.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing for northeast Oklahoma...after 9 PM elsewhere.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma.
	ONSET...This Evening.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered late afternoon storms will develop along and northwest
of Interstate 44 with large hail and locally damaging wind
potential, along with at least a limited tornado threat through
this evening. By late evening a line of storms will spread into
eastern Oklahoma. These storms will pose a risk of damaging winds
and a limited tornado risk. The storms are expected to weaken as
they spread eastward toward northwest Arkansas with the severe
weather threat diminishing by the early morning hours Thursday.
Heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will also be possible,
particularly across northeast Oklahoma. Late overnight into
Thursday morning, strong south-southwest winds develop, with
gusts between 20 and 35 mph. Isolated gusts near 40 mph are
possible across northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm...Very High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm...High Wind and Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms may be ongoing early Thursday morning across
portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. These storms
are expected to move east of the region by the afternoon. Gusty
winds will maintain a concern for grassland fire weather
conditions for those locations who do not receive meaningful
rainfall. Thunderstorm chances increase again Friday afternoon and
become widespread Friday night into Saturday as a slow moving
cold front moves into the region. A risk of severe weather will
accompany the initial storms through Friday evening with a
transition toward a heavy rainfall risk Friday night into Saturday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

OKZ054-059-020030-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
634 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 633 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles west of Kildare to near Marland to 5
miles east of Perry. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Skedee...                         Webb City...
Apperson...                       Burbank...
Fairfax...                        Blackburn...
Ralston...                        Foraker...
Maramec...                        Grainola...
Sooner Lake...                    Shidler...
Pawnee...                         Kaw Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9652 3624 9661 3623 9682 3625 9682
      3625 9692 3633 9693 3634 9703 3651 9703
      3655 9690 3658 9689 3660 9692 3659 9705
      3668 9706 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689
      3674 9683 3677 9682 3678 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 226DEG 22KT 3681 9710 3654 9714 3629 9719

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
720 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

OKZ054-055-059-020115-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Washington OK-
720 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM CDT...

At 719 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a scattered strong
thunderstorms across Osage and Pawnee Counties, moving northeast at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Barnsdall...                      Bigheart...
Dewey...                          Hallett...
Bartlesville Municipal Airport... Tallant...
Pawhuska...                       Cleveland...
Blackburn...                      Osage Hills State Park...
Pershing...                       Foraker...
Grainola...                       Nelagoney...
Shidler...                        Wolco...
Hominy...                         Pearsonia...
Walnut Creek State Park...        Wah Sha She State Park...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9579 3642 9596 3642 9600 3630 9600
      3621 9603 3623 9659 3691 9675 3700 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 226DEG 31KT 3655 9683

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
734 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

OKZ054-059-020130-
Osage OK-Pawnee OK-
734 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OSAGE AND PAWNEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM CDT...

At 733 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 3 miles
northwest of Lake Mcmurtry, moving northeast at 25 mph. Other strong
thunderstorms were located across western Pawnee County.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Ralston...                        Maramec...
Skedee...                         Sooner Lake...
Pawnee...                         Apperson...
Burbank...                        Fairfax...
Kaw Lake...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3670 9703 3668 9694 3675 9689 3674 9683
      3677 9682 3678 9675 3694 9675 3621 9658
      3617 9682 3625 9682 3625 9692 3633 9693
      3634 9703 3651 9703 3655 9690 3658 9689
      3660 9692 3658 9698 3659 9705 3668 9706
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 241DEG 21KT 3622 9723

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

69

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
834 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

OKZ054-059-060-064-020215-
Tulsa OK-Osage OK-Pawnee OK-Creek OK-
834 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL OSAGE...
NORTHWESTERN CREEK...SOUTHEASTERN PAWNEE AND WEST CENTRAL TULSA
COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM CDT...

At 834 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Jennings, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Westport...                       Keystone State Park...
Silver City...                    Maramec...
Osage...                          Mannford...
Terlton...                        Hallett...
Oilton...                         Jennings...
Cleveland...                      Blackburn...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Oklahoma.

&&

LAT...LON 3648 9656 3611 9617 3602 9662 3616 9662
      3616 9674 3631 9679
TIME...MOT...LOC 0134Z 248DEG 20KT 3617 9661

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

69