Drought in Oklahoma, April 1 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

 - Warm temperatures and gusty south winds expected Wednesday. This
   will keep fire weather concerns elevated.

 - Severe potentials and a heavy rain threat with thunderstorm chances
   Wednesday night into Thursday and again Friday evening into
   Saturday.

 - Cooler and drier conditions Sunday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

An area of surface low pressure oriented from northern Texas through
Oklahoma and into Missouri with a nearly stationary frontal boundary
along the axis of the surface low are expected to remain in place
into Wednesday morning. The combination of these features, a 30-40KT
low level jet and instability becoming mostly elevated will allow
for slight/low end shower/storm chances to remain into Wednesday
morning for portions of northeast Oklahoma into far northwest
Arkansas, though in a weakening state. Gusty to locally strong winds
are the primary threat with hail a secondary threat with this
activity.

Through the day Wednesday, surface low pressure repositions itself
and deepens back westward over eastern Colorado and the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles ahead of a shortwave moving through the
Rocky Mountains. At the same time, the eastern half of the boundary
from Tuesday night retreats back northward over Kansas, keeping
breezy/gusty southerly low level flow and warm conditions across
eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Low shower/storm chances
remain into early afternoon for mainly northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas before the boundary and any lingering pockets
of vorticity move away from the CWA. With most locations remaining
dry Wednesday and also the southerly winds/temperatures in the 80s,
limited to elevated fire weather concerns could develop again. A
limiting factor will be moisture advection into the region as min
afternoon humidity looks to be in the 40-50 percent range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The shortwave moving through the Rockies pairs up with the deepening
surface low Wednesday evening and moves east/northeast through the
central Plains Wednesday night/Thursday morning. As this occurs,
thunderstorm initiation is forecast to develop along the dryline
over the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles and spread eastward into the CWA
with the movement of the shortwave. Storm chances could start as
early as late afternoon Wednesday across northeast Oklahoma, if some
CAM data verifies, ahead of the main broken line of convection
arriving Wednesday evening. Increasing surface/elevated based
instability along with strong mid level lapse rates and increasing
low/deep layer shear will aid in severe potentials developing across
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. The
potential for all modes of severe weather would exist with any storm
development out ahead of the main line of convection, including
large hail and a limited tornado threat. The greater potential for
this is across northeast Oklahoma into mid evening.

Severe potentials mid evening into the overnight hours should begin
to transition to a damaging wind threat with secondary threats of
large hail and a low tornado potential as low level helicity
increases along the leading line of convection. Overall severe
potentials should begin to weaken with eastward extent late
Wednesday night as instability decreases and model soundings become
a nearly saturated column. In addition to the severe potentials, a
heavy rain threat will also exist through Wednesday night as
precipitable water values climb up near the 99th percent-tile for
early April.

Showers and storm potentials should decrease from west to east
during the day Thursday as the mid/upper level trof axis departs the
region. Southerly low level flow looks to remain common behind the
departing shortwave which allows for moisture advection and the
re-estabilishment of instability across the CWA Friday. Another
shortwave is progged to move through the Plains Friday and Saturday
with a more defined cold front across the CWA Friday evening into
Saturday morning. Storm chances increase Friday afternoon ahead of
the front and become likely Friday night and Saturday morning before
the front can exit off to the southeast. Severe potentials again
develop during this time frame with the northern half of the CWA
currently having the greater potential of all modes of severe
weather. As the front moves through late Friday night/Saturday
morning severe potentials should weaken, though a locally damaging
wind threat could continue into early Saturday morning across
southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

The mid/upper level trof axis exits Saturday afternoon with precip
chances pushing off to the east. Behind the boundary, northerly
winds transporting a cooler/drier airmass sets up over the region
Sunday and the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Isolated to scattered convection may develop late tonight through
Wednesday morning across the local area though coverage and
confidence both remain for specific terminals. Slightly higher
chances may pass through NW AR during the morning and a low
mention of storms will be include. MVFR ceilings are likely to
develop around sunrise and spread northward with a short window of
flight impacts possible for most terminals before ceilings rise.
Storm chances increase from late afternoon across NE OK and more
so Wednesday evening as a line of showers and storms spreads
eastward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  67  84  68 /  30 100  10  10
FSM   85  67  83  66 /  10  70  70  20
MLC   85  67  83  68 /  10 100  20  10
BVO   82  63  82  64 /  40 100  10  10
FYV   82  65  80  64 /  20  80  60  20
BYV   81  65  79  64 /  20  60  70  20
MKO   85  65  83  66 /  20 100  20  10
MIO   81  64  80  66 /  30  90  30  10
F10   84  64  83  66 /  20 100  10  10
HHW   83  65  81  65 /   0  80  50  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
507 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-012215-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
507 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Northwest of Interstate 44.
	ONSET...After 9 pm.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Mainly Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Breezy south winds, warm temperatures, and ongoing drought
conditions will continue to contribute to higher grassland fire
spread rates into this evening. Any fire starts could spread
quickly. A chance of showers and thunderstorms does spread into
parts of northeast Oklahoma later this evening through the
overnight hours. An isolated strong to severe storm is possible
with locally gusty winds the primary hazard.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Very High Fire Weather Potential...
            High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...
         Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential.
SUNDAY and MONDAY...No Hazards.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Gusty winds will continue on Wednesday with thunderstorm chances
increasing during the evening and continuing into the overnight
hours. Storms will end from west to east early Thursday. Severe
weather potential will likely spread into parts of eastern
Oklahoma Wednesday evening with locally damaging winds the primary
hazard. A limited risk of tornadoes may develop but will be
dependent on the strength of the developing line of storms. Storms
are likely to gradually weaken as they spread east toward western
Arkansas. Locally heavy rainfall is likely through early
Thursday.

The active weather pattern continues with thunderstorm chances
returning late Friday with widespread showers and storms
forecast Friday night into Saturday. Severe weather potential may
also return during this time frame and the weather pattern is
favorable for locally heavy rainfall through Saturday.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.