Drought in Oklahoma, April 1 to 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1219 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 643 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

-Strong to severe thunderstorms possible on Wednesday for the
 eastern combined Panhandles with large hail and damaging winds
 possible.

-Thunderstorms possible for the SE TX Panhandle on Friday

-Watching for elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
 for the western Panhandles Wednesday through Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Latest 17Z observations shows the cold front continuing to move
at a steady pace south through the Texas Panhandle. In the wake of
the front, temperatures are dropping into the 60s as of the
latest obs with surface winds shifting to northerly. Moreover, the
cold front should displace the best LL moisture out ahead as it
moves south. If the cold front clears through the Panhandles by
this afternoon, LL instability could be more limited. But latest
guidance does continue to show the far SE Texas Panhandle in a
corridor ahead of the from of mid 50s Td values with good diurnal
heating. With several surface features in the vicinity with aided
H500 lift from a mid level perturbation moving east across eastern
NM, we could see a few thunderstorms develop across the SE TX
Panhandle from mid afternoon into the evening hours. With
effective shear around 20-25 kts and the most aggressive MUCAPE
values of around 1500 J/kg, areas along and ahead of the main cold
front could see some strong to severe thunderstorms with hail as
big as 1.5" and 60 mph gusts with the most robust updrafts.
Conditions will improve between 03-05Z.

Going into Wednesday, a decaying H300 jet streak out ahead of the
main H500 perturbation just west of the Four Corners region by
Wednesday afternoon will move into the Panhandles. We will have to
contend with some cloud cover which could make surface based
instability a bit delayed. However, some of the most aggressive
model data sets has a frontal boundary backing into the SE Texas
Panhandle by 18-22Z Wednesday afternoon. Coupled with allocated
H700 +theta-e advection into the eastern Panhandles out ahead of
a progressing dryline eastward, we could see strong to severe
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening for the eastern
Panhandles off the Caprock. If all the components from the upper
level jet support, surface boundaries, backing winds, and
diurnally driven heating with sufficient instability, we could see
2000-2500 J/kg on instability along with around 30-40 kts of
effective shear in the most aggressive model outputs shows (NAM,
CMC, RAP). With converging set up, even can argue a rough triple
point set up in play where even a tornado cannot be completely
ruled out. Most of the model datasets however illustrate a more
progressive dryline, which results in quick thunderstorms
development in the western OK/eastern TX Panhandle stateline
before quickly moving east into Oklahoma, with just some elevated
low topped non-severe convection in the east. Will watch trends
very closely over the next 12-24 hours with updates to the
forecast. Further west across the far western combined Panhandles,
as skies will clear out late afternoon in this vicinity, we could
see a window of some fire weather conditions that will have to be
watched closely as well, along with breezy westerly winds. High
temperatures on Wednesday in the wake of the cold front will range
from the upper 70s in the northern Panhandles to mid and upper
80s for the southern TX Panhandle.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1140 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A dry forecast for most of the Panhandles throughout the long term
forecast period. Perhaps some moisture will return for the eastern
Panhandles Friday into Friday night, but overall moisture return
looks quite scant. But nonetheless, something to watch in the
extended forecast. Otherwise, dry with above average temperatures
Thursday and Friday before a cold front moves through the region
Friday night bringing temperatures back down to near average
values for the weekend with slightly above average temperatures going
into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

As of late tonight, linger cloud decks where still present on the
latest satellite, but should have no impacts to the terminals for
the overnight. Instead focus is turning towards the disturbance
set to move across the Panhandles during the late morning and
afternoon time frame. Presently there continues to be good
potential for showers to be seen in the vicinity of the all three
terminals as the disturbance moves across, but impacts to the
them are likely to be minor due to how little moisture will be
present in our west. At this time, best chances are likely to
come around sunset, before quickly tapering off as the disturbance
pushes eastward.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...11

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1236 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-010545-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
1236 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms may form across the eastern Panhandles late this
afternoon into this evening. A few of these storms may become
severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the primary
hazards. Lightning may also cause grass fire starts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday and Friday across
mainly the eastern Panhandles. Strong to severe storms will be
possible on each of these days, especially on Wednesday with
large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible
Wednesday through Friday, mainly for the western combined
Panhandles due to breezy winds and low relative humidity values.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and this evening.