Hail and Damaging Winds in Ohio, April 3, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Saturday's Slight Risk for severe weather has been expanded to
include the entire local area. There's still concern for
localized flooding due to excessive runoff and/or additional
rises on rivers thanks to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
through Saturday, although confidence in the location of the
highest precipitation values and the resulting location of the
greatest flooding risk remains somewhat low at this point.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along a
frontal boundary across the area through tonight. A few storms
may be strong to severe and produce damaging wind gusts/large
hail. Additional minor flooding is possible due to heavy
rainfall rates.

2) Confidence in organized thunderstorms is higher as a cold
front moves across the area Saturday afternoon into Saturday
night. Storms may be strong to severe and produce heavy
rainfall.

3) Much cooler temperatures expected Sunday through the middle
of next week with a few periods of precipitation possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE #1:
Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms have developed south
of the lakeshore, however a relatively strong capping inversion
will most likely continue to prevent widespread efficient
thunderstorm growth through the rest of this afternoon.
Showers/thunderstorms will increase in coverage along a frontal
boundary as better upper level support arrives this evening
before lifting north with the boundary early Saturday morning.
If any storms manage to grow tall enough, there is potential for
isolated instances of damaging wind gusts and large hail through
about 10 PM tonight. Otherwise, assuming the mid-level dry air
doesn't throw a wrench into things, heavy rain will be the
primary threat through late tonight with unseasonably high
precipitable water values expected. Mean flow will be parallel
to the frontal boundary, but the good news is storm motion will
be progressive which will help mitigate training and the flash
flooding potential. With that being said, antecedent conditions
are conducive for at least minor flooding with 1 and 3 hour FFG
under 2 inches in place across the majority of the area and high
soil moisture values present across the eastern half of the
local area. At this point, it's difficult to pinpoint the areas
of greatest concern given uncertainty in where the highest QPF
axis will occur tonight.

KEY MESSAGE #2:
The local area will remain in the warm sector during the day
Saturday, allowing dew points to rise into the upper 50s and
lower 60s by the afternoon. Another round of showers and
thunderstorms will develop as a cold front moves east into the
area Saturday afternoon and crosses the area into Saturday
evening. Showers and storms will be more organized with this
round given the better upper-level forcing and higher effective
bulk shear values up to 40 knots. The moist southerly flow and
likely clearing early in the day will also result in MLCAPE
values of 1000-1500 J/kg by mid afternoon. Storm mode will likely
be line segments with damaging wind gusts being the primary
threat. However, 0-1 km shear values of around 15 knots, the
higher MLCAPE values, and LCL heights under 1000 feet will
support at least a low-end chance of a few spinups/tornadoes.
The Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather has been
expanded to include the entire CWA, meaning confidence in
organized/stronger storms has increased a bit. Heavy rainfall
will likely accompany the convection and the multiple rounds of
heavy rain in just a couple of days may make it a bit easier for
flooding to occur Saturday afternoon/evening. By early Sunday
morning, two-day rainfall totals of about .75 to 1.25 inches
will occur across the majority of the area with locally higher
amounts certainly possible where the heaviest rainfall rates
occur. Additional rises on area rivers are likely.

KEY MESSAGE #3:
A pattern shift with colder temperatures is anticipated behind
Saturday's cold front. Highs will be in the 40s and lower 50s
Sunday and Monday with the coldest highs in the 30s and lower
40s expected on Tuesday. Periods of lake effect/enhanced showers
are possible through early Tuesday and rain may mix with snow at
times, especially Sunday night and Monday night. Temperatures
will trend warmer for mid to late week and a period of
widespread dry weather is expected late Tuesday through
Wednesday before rain shower chance return on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Mainly VFR across the TAF sites this afternoon, though
anticipate some non-VFR vsby drops by late afternoon/early
evening in scattered showers and thunderstorms, particularly
near the US-30 corridor (MFD/CAK/YNG). A more widespread area of
showers and thunderstorms is likely to develop later this
evening and overnight as a warm front lifts back north, with the
highest confidence for non-VFR impacts at TOL/FDY/MFD/CLE. A
brief period of MVFR or IFR ceilings may immediately follow the
front early Saturday morning, before widespread improvement to
VFR is expected by mid-Saturday morning. Attention then turns
towards developing showers and thunderstorms along a cold front
Saturday afternoon which will need to be included in the next
TAF package.

Southwest winds remain elevated this afternoon, 12 to 18 knots
with periodic gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Winds will gradually
shift towards the west, then north to northeast late this
evening as a trough slides south through the area, stalling near
the US-30 corridor. Winds will quickly become south once again
late Saturday morning as this boundary lifts back north as a
warm front.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely on Saturday in showers and
thunderstorms along a cold front. Some thunderstorms may produce
strong winds. Low ceilings may linger through Sunday. Non-VFR
may return Monday and Monday night in rain and/or snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds will briefly increase around 15 to 20 knots out of the east
Saturday morning ahead of a lifting warm front, though the main
marine concern continues to be on Sunday as a cold front ushers in
west winds of 20 to 22 knots. A Small Craft Advisory will be needed
on Sunday, especially across the central and eastern basins. In
addition, strong winds may accompany some of the showers and
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front on Saturday. A secondary
cold front will cross the lake Monday night into Tuesday with
confidence increasing for additional Small Craft Advisories as winds
shift towards the north to northwest, 20 to 22 knots. Quieter marine
conditions will return on Wednesday as high pressure builds across
the region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...Kahn
MARINE...Kahn

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
342 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-041945-
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga-Lake-Geauga-
Ashtabula Inland-Hancock-Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-
Wyandot-Crawford-Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-
Holmes-Knox-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
342 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio, northeast
Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Area rivers will continue to run high tonight with some remaining
above flood stage. See active Flood Warnings for more specific
details.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely through late this
evening as a front dips south across the area. Locally heavy rain
may accompany some storms and there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)
for damaging winds and large hail. Storms will be most favored along
and south of the front, generally south of the I-80 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front will sweep through late Saturday and Saturday
night with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected. Some
of these thunderstorms may produce damaging winds and a couple of
tornadoes. There is Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in
place the entire forecast area. Storms could also produce heavy
rainfall which could lead to additional localized flooding and
continued elevated river levels.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-041945-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH-
Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY-
Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM
offshoreline to US-Canadian border-
Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the-
Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
342 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

A strong cold front will sweep through late Saturday and Saturday
night with another round of showers and thunderstorms expected with
the front. Some of these thunderstorms may produce strong winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
443 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ027-028-036-037-032130-
Crawford OH-Wyandot OH-Marion OH-Morrow OH-
443 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT MARION...SOUTHERN WYANDOT...
NORTHERN MORROW AND SOUTHERN CRAWFORD COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 443 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Morral, or 7 miles west of Marion, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marion, Bucyrus, Mount Gilead, Galion, Crestline, La Rue, Morral,
Marseilles, Nevada, Caledonia, New Bloomington, Edison, Green Camp,
North Robinson, Harpster, Oceola, Sulpher Springs, and Iberia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4051 8325 4051 8342 4053 8341 4068 8342
      4069 8344 4076 8344 4093 8283 4058 8267
      4048 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2043Z 255DEG 27KT 4062 8326

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
512 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ033-032145-
Mahoning OH-
512 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MAHONING COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 512 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Salem, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Salem, Columbiana, Boardman, Canfield, Struthers, Poland, Ellsworth,
New Middletown, Lowellville, and Greenford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4093 8083 4093 8089 4103 8089 4104 8052
      4090 8052 4090 8082
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 275DEG 22KT 4095 8081

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
530 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ028>031-036-037-047-032215-
Crawford OH-Marion OH-Richland OH-Wayne OH-Ashland OH-Morrow OH-
Knox OH-
530 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT RICHLAND...CENTRAL MARION...
ASHLAND...MORROW...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...WEST CENTRAL WAYNE AND
NORTHWESTERN KNOX COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 530 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Hayesville to Prospect. Movement was east
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mansfield, Marion, Wooster, Ashland, Mount Gilead, Galion, Ontario,
Lexington, Crestline, Loudonville, Fredericktown, Cardington,
Bellville, Prospect, Hayesville, Waldo, Chesterville, Sparta,
Waterford, and Smithville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4032 8275 4035 8275 4036 8293 4041 8292
      4042 8294 4045 8325 4050 8325 4051 8329
      4075 8284 4092 8237 4086 8183 4067 8216
      4067 8222 4058 8222 4034 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 270DEG 20KT 4082 8222 4047 8321

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
653 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ029-030-038-047-032345-
Holmes OH-Richland OH-Ashland OH-Knox OH-
653 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RICHLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN ASHLAND...WESTERN HOLMES AND NORTHEASTERN KNOX COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 PM EDT...

At 653 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Loudonville, or 13 miles northeast of Mount
Vernon, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millersburg, Loudonville, Fredericktown, Bellville, Danville,
Killbuck, Holmesville, Glenmont, Nashville, Butler, Perrysville,
Gann, and North Liberty.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4043 8261 4067 8255 4069 8213 4067 8213
      4067 8194 4066 8192 4045 8192 4045 8218
      4042 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 269DEG 18KT 4055 8235

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
657 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ031-032-038-032345-
Holmes OH-Stark OH-Wayne OH-
657 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN STARK...
SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHEASTERN HOLMES COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM
EDT...

At 657 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Dalton, or 13 miles east of Wooster, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Canton, Massillon, North Canton, Louisville, Orrville, Brewster,
Navarre, Dalton, Waynesburg, East Sparta, Wilmot, Mount Eaton, East
Canton, Beach City, Meyers Lake, Hills And Dales, Mount Hope, Perry
Heights, and North Lawrence.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4062 8179 4084 8178 4087 8124 4065 8125
      4065 8144 4066 8144 4063 8167 4062 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 271DEG 19KT 4075 8169

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
716 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

OHZ038-040000-
Holmes OH-
716 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT HOLMES COUNTY THROUGH 800 PM
EDT...

At 716 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Killbuck, or near Millersburg, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Millersburg, Berlin, Walnut Creek, Killbuck, Holmesville, Winesburg,
Farmerstown, Baltic, Mount Hope, and Charm.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4045 8208 4067 8206 4066 8186 4067 8167
      4045 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 2316Z 275DEG 30KT 4052 8198

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

04