What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 2:25 PM EST, 3 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Very warm this afternoon, and a bit humid along the coast. 2) A conditional severe weather threat continues into this evening, mainly across central and south central VA into northeast NC. 3) Brief locally heavy rainfall will be possible Friday morning across southeast VA into northeast NC.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 18, 2:25 PM EST, 3 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
325 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated discussion. Adjusted highest rain chances across south
central VA into interior NE NC tonight. Increased QPF for
Friday, with some locally heavy rainfall possible across Hampton
Roads and northeast NC Friday morning.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Very warm this afternoon, and a bit humid along the coast.
2) A conditional severe weather threat continues into this
evening, mainly across central and south central VA into
northeast NC.
3) Brief locally heavy rainfall will be possible
Friday morning across southeast VA into northeast NC.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Very warm this afternoon, and a bit humid along
the coast.
SW flow has increased ahead of an approaching cold front.
Breezy conditions continue into this evening with peak wind
gusts around 30mph. Due to clouds from convective outflow
earlier this morning, highs are a few degrees cooler than
expected. However, these clouds have also limited mixing to a
degree, keeping dewpoints a bit higher. Highs will generally be
in the low to mid 90s with the hottest temps in the southeast.
Due to convective outflows and increasing cloud cover, the Heat
Advisory previously in place for Hampton Roads and the interior
southeast was cancelled. Heat indices around 100 are likely into
this evening, mainly across central VA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A conditional severe weather threat continues
into this evening, mainly across central and south central VA
into northeast NC.
A decaying early morning MCS threw the expected weather pattern
into a bit of disarray earlier today. CAMs resolved this system
quite poorly, and the remnant outflow allowed for some mid-to-
late morning showers across the VA Piedmont. It also laid down a
pair of weak convective boundaries that have been the focus for
convection over the past couple of hours.
A Slight Risk for severe storms is now in place for the entire
area through this evening. Looking at the latest mesoanalysis,
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE is in place across the region, though a
reasonably strong capping inversion remains established across
the northern CWA within the cool, stable outflow from this
morning's convection. Bulk shear values are generally running
between 30-40 kt, with locally higher values focused across the
northwest half of the area, particularly along and just south of
the US-360 corridor.
Damaging winds remain the primary concern given a high DCAPE
environment (800-1200 J/kg, peaking just south of US-360 as of
18z), though large hail will also be possible with any
stronger, sustained updrafts, especially if any convection can
develop N of RIC/SBY, where mid-level lapse rates increase to
6.5 to 7 deg C/km. Since the northern cap will take some time
to erode, and with the primary convective trigger likely to
remain across the remnant boundaries to the south, expect
additional isolated to scattered convection to fire later today
over the Piedmont into south- central VA and northeast NC.
KEY MESSAGE 3...Brief locally heavy rainfall will be possible
Friday morning across southeast VA into northeast NC.
After a brief lull to rain chances late this evening, rain
chances ramp back up toward dawn Friday into early Fri
afternoon. This will coincide with a cold front dropping across
the region, as moisture from the tropical remnants of TC Arthur
push across the Carolinas and far SE VA. This will likely occur
in a narrow band along the frontal zone, though the warm rain
processes with the tropical moisture should make for highly
efficient rain producers capable of producing briefly
impressive rain rates. Have increased QPF across the far SE and
there still may be a narrow corridor that locally sees 1-2" of
rainfall between sunrise and midday Friday, with locally higher
totals possible. Moisture slides offshore tomorrow afternoon,
with quick clearing from SW to NE tomorrow afternoon into
tomorrow evening.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...
VFR conditions prevail for most of 18z/18 TAF period. SW flow
increases ahead of a cold front with 15-20 kt winds gusting to
~30kt. Showers and storms ahead of the front move into the area
this evening into the overnight hours. While a scattered storms
will be west of the terminals late this afternoon into this
evening, terminals likely will not see impacts until after
00-03z. Scattered convection continues through the night with
highest chances of impact at RIC/PHF/ORF. Latest guidance
indicates CIGs start dropping to MVFR after 09z, with IFR/lcl
LIFR between 11-15z, with best chances at PHF/ORF/ECG. CIGs
gradually returning to VFR tomorrow afternoon as convection
pushes offshore.
Outlook: Drier conditions/VFR conditions return Fri evening
through the upcoming weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...
Key Messages:
- Elevated SW winds continue today into tonight, with Small Craft
Advisories remaining in effect for all waters.
- A Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore 20-60nm zone south of
the VA/NC border this afternoon into tonight.
Deep low pressure has moved into Ontario and New England this
afternoon with a cold front extending to the SW across the Ohio
Valley. SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt are noted over the
local waters. A few gusts have approached 30 kt, mainly just
downstream of land areas where deeper mixing is present vs farther
offshore. Waves are 1-3 ft in the bay with seas building to 3-4 ft.
SW winds continue this evening and tonight ahead of the cold front.
SCA headlines remain in effect for all local waters. A few strong
storms remain a possibility this evening and tonight but outflow and
debris cloudiness from early morning convection over the Midwest
lends considerable uncertainty to the storm coverage and intensity
forecast. However, the environment will support the potential for
strong to severe wind gusts with any storms that manage to form. The
Gale Warning for the far offshore zone south of the VA/NC border
continues through late evening with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas will
peak this evening at 4-6 ft nearshore and 5-8 ft in the 20-60nm
zones. Winds are expected to gradually decrease after midnight
tonight with Small Craft Advisories coming to end for most of the
area around sunrise. The southern Chesapeake Bay may linger in
marginal SCA territory through mid morning.
The latest model guidance has thrown a wrench into the Friday
afternoon portion of the forecast with the remnant circulation from
TS Arthur expected to quickly translate eastward across the
Carolinas tomorrow. At the same time, the previously referenced cold
front drops southward across the local waters with W/SW flow
becoming N and NW behind the boundary. The ECMWF and NAM are farther
north or stronger with the remnant circulation, which would allow
winds to briefly increase again as the low makes its closest
approach during the afternoon. Have increased winds to 15-20 kt with
gusts to 25 kt across the southern Chesapeake Bay and adjacent
waters southward Friday afternoon. This portion of the forecast is
very low confidence, however, with the GFS continuing to show a much
weaker and more suppressed low. Will hold off on extending current
SCA headlines given substantial model disagreement but the areas of
most concern for brief SCA conditions are the southern bay, lower
James River, Currituck Sound, and coastal waters S of Cape Charles
Light. NW winds 10-15 kt are expected to continue into early
Saturday. High pressure builds into the region Saturday into Sunday
with southerly flow expected to strengthen ahead of the next system
early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...
While no record highs are anticipated, they are included for
reference.
Record Highs for today 6/18
Record
High/Year
Location 6/18
-------- ----
Richmond 100 (1970)
Norfolk 99 (1944)
Salisbury 98 (2014)
Eliz. City 100 (2011)
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-634.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for ANZ633-639-650-
652-654-656-658.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ635>637.
Gale Warning until 1 AM EDT Friday for ANZ688.
&&
DISCUSSION...AC/MAM
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...RHR
CLIMATE...MAMHazardous weather outlook, Jun 18, 3:30 AM EST, 10 hours 58 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NCZ012>017-030>032-190830-
Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck-
Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
Heat Advisory.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
NCZ102-190830-
Eastern Currituck-
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast North Carolina.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
hot conditions are expected Thursday. Highs will average in the mid
to upper 90s, with heat index values in the 100 to 103 degree range.
Additionally, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible
Thursday evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
MDZ021>024-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>086-509>522-190830-
Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Fluvanna-Prince Edward-
Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia-
Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick-
Dinwiddie-Prince George (including Hopewell and Petersburg)-
Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex-Mathews-Western Louisa-
Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover-Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield-
Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)-
Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico-
Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen-
Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, central
Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central
Virginia and south central Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
There is a Slight Risk for severe weather today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the
main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
VAZ087>090-092-097-098-523>525-528>531-190830-
Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton-Chesapeake-
Virginia Beach-York-Newport News-Hampton/Poquoson-Isle of Wight-
Suffolk-Norfolk-Portsmouth-
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Heat Advisory.
There is a Slight Risk for severe weather today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the
main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
MDZ025-VAZ099-100-190830-
Maryland Beaches-Accomack-Northampton-
430 AM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, eastern
Virginia and southeast Virginia.
.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK.
There is a Slight Risk for severe weather today ahead of an
approaching cold front. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible
late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the
main threat.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 18, 12:29 PM EST, 1 hour 59 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
129 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
VAZ065-079-181815-
Mecklenburg VA-Brunswick VA-
129 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MECKLENBURG AND SOUTHERN
BRUNSWICK COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM EDT...
At 129 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near South Hill to near Virgilina. Movement was
east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
South Hill, Brodnax, Clarksville, La Crosse, Boydton, and Buffalo
Springs around 135 PM EDT.
Brunswick around 155 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by these storms include Nelson, Beechwood,
Bowens Corner, John H Kerr Dam, Finchley, White Plains, Valentines,
Skipwith, Rogers Corner, and Richardson.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3658 7872 3664 7871 3667 7870 3668 7864
3664 7857 3664 7856 3668 7863 3675 7832
3675 7772 3654 7786 3654 7873 3655 7874
TIME...MOT...LOC 1729Z 274DEG 23KT 3670 7814 3660 7884
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MillerLocal storm report, Jun 18, 12:40 PM EST, 1 hour 48 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
140 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1250 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 1 WNW Spanish Grove 36.80N 78.56W
06/18/2026 Mecklenburg VA 911 Call Center
The 911 call center reported a tree down
near the intersection of Allgood Road and
Highway 92 in Chase City. Time estimated
from radar.
&&
RMMSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 12:57 PM EST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
157 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NCZ012-VAZ079-087-088-092-181830-
Northampton NC-Sussex VA-Southampton VA-Brunswick VA-Greensville VA-
157 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NORTHAMPTON...
GREENSVILLE...WEST CENTRAL SOUTHAMPTON...SOUTH CENTRAL SUSSEX AND
SOUTHEASTERN BRUNSWICK COUNTIES AND THE CITY OF EMPORIA THROUGH 230
PM EDT...
At 157 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brunswick, or 8 miles southeast of Lawrenceville, moving east at 40
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Emporia around 210 PM EDT.
Claresville around 220 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Ante, Brink, Adams
Grove, Grizzard, Gum Forks, Bufford Crossroads, Lanes Corner,
Triplet, Pleasant Shade, and Henrico.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3675 7773 3676 7741 3675 7734 3654 7748
3655 7760 3648 7768 3649 7771 3648 7775
3650 7782 3651 7786 3650 7787 3651 7789
3651 7790 3654 7790 3655 7793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1757Z 274DEG 37KT 3665 7778
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MillerSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 1:24 PM EST, 1 hour 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
224 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NCZ012-013-VAZ087-092-528-181915-
Hertford NC-Northampton NC-Isle of Wight VA-Southampton VA-
Greensville VA-
224 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHAMPTON...NORTHWESTERN
HERTFORD...SOUTHEASTERN GREENSVILLE...SOUTHWESTERN ISLE OF WIGHT AND
SOUTHERN SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES...THE CITY OF FRANKLIN AND THE CITY OF
EMPORIA THROUGH 315 PM EDT...
At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gaston, or near Garysburg, moving east at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Seaboard around 230 PM EDT.
Conway around 245 PM EDT.
Murfreesboro and Chowan University around 255 PM EDT.
Como around 300 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Eagletown, Milwaukee,
Adams Grove, Gum Forks, Lanes Corner, Menola, Bryants Corner,
Jackson, Slates Corner, and Worrell.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3638 7755 3642 7756 3645 7763 3648 7765
3648 7769 3659 7765 3664 7757 3672 7753
3671 7743 3673 7740 3675 7680 3667 7685
3665 7690 3663 7689 3662 7691 3659 7691
3648 7699 3626 7720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 270DEG 43KT 3649 7761
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
WraySpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 2:02 PM EST, 26 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
302 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NCZ013>016-VAZ092-097-528-529-181945-
Pasquotank NC-Hertford NC-Camden NC-Gates NC-Isle of Wight VA-
Suffolk VA-Southampton VA-Chesapeake VA-
302 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CAMDEN...
NORTHWESTERN PASQUOTANK...NORTH CENTRAL HERTFORD...NORTHERN GATES...
SOUTHWESTERN ISLE OF WIGHT...AND SOUTHEASTERN SOUTHAMPTON COUNTIES...
THE SOUTHWESTERN CITY OF CHESAPEAKE...THE CITY OF FRANKLIN AND THE
CITY OF SUFFOLK THROUGH 345 PM EDT...
At 301 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Franklin, moving east at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small trees and blow around
unsecured objects. Wind impacting handling of high profile
vehicles.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Franklin and Suffolk around 305 PM EDT.
Whaleyville around 320 PM EDT.
Chesapeake around 335 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Handsom, Lummis,
Savage, Acorn Hill, Topsy, Suffolk Airport, Drum Hill, Hazelton,
Buckland, and Cleopus.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3650 7708 3667 7707 3675 7639 3642 7644
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 270DEG 36KT 3660 7697
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
Wray