A line of storms crossed over the Eastern Great Lakes and moved across the Niagara Frontier and North Country producing sporadic reports of damaging winds.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BUF wrote it up.
A line of storms crossed over the Eastern Great Lakes and moved across the Niagara Frontier and North Country producing sporadic reports of damaging winds.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 19, 12:22 PM EST, 6 hours 43 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 122 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Minor changes made from the previous forecast. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms to arrive this evening into overnight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe criteria (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tonight). 2) Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Widespread showers and thunderstorms to arrive this evening into overnight, with a few storms having the potential to reach severe criteria (Slight Risk for Severe Weather Today and Tonight). Mid-level ridge axis will depart east today, allowing for the next shortwave trough to pass northeastward out of the base of the longwave trough placed over the western half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, an associated surface low, currently over Lake Superior this morning will progress northeast across Ontario and eventually into Quebec today and tonight, where it will drag its cold front across the Great Lakes, arriving to Western New York around 2AM to 3AM. However ahead of the front's arrival, Expect strong to severe storms to spread from west to east around 5PM to 7PM this evening. CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/kg (especially earlier in the evening), combined with 25-35 knots of 0-6km shear will nurture the potential for damaging wind gusts, which will be the main hazard type. Though large hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out as the forecast profiles continue to highlight "fat" CAPE soundings along with widespread 0-3km SRH values of 200-300 m^2/s^2, with localized pockets of 300-400 m^2/s^2 across far western NY. This all being said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight most of the forecast region under a Slight Risk (Risk level 2 of 5), with the best window for severe weather occurring between 6-7PM this evening through 1-2AM tonight. Forecast confidence waivers some, due to the time of arrival with the activity being during a gradual loss of daytime heating, which creates the question whether or not the line of activity will keep up its intensity, especially later in the evening. Current thinking continues to support the line arriving in western New York, before splitting into two distinct areas, one passing north into the North Country where it will become less potent, and the other segment diving east-southeast across the western Southern Tier before it gradually wanes overnight. KEY MESSAGE 2...Drier and much cooler conditions arrive in the wake of the cold front Wednesday afternoon and last through Friday, before the potential for unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. In the wake of the passing cold front Wednesday morning, cold air and surface high pressure will side across the region for the later half of the week, supporting mainly cool and dry weather. The coolest day will be Thursday with many locations remaining in the 50s for highs. There will then be a slow rebound in temperatures heading into the holiday weekend, with highs ranging in the 60s and a few locations reaching the low 70s. While temperatures will begin to rebound, an area of low pressure will approach the region from the southwest, supporting the return of unsettled weather for the holiday weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Morning showers have dissipated within the last few hours, leaving behind partly cloudy skies across the eastern Lake Ontario region this afternoon. Despite the cloud cover, ceilings remain VFR. Clouds will continue to disperse for the next few hours, supporting VFR conditions to prevail. A patch of mid-level cumulus will brush across WNY towards the Genesee Valley in the next few hours, though flight conditions will remain VFR. Otherwise outside of the clouds, it is quite breezy today as the area lies between exiting high pressure and an incoming cold front. Winds are gusting between 20 to 25 knots regionwide, with a localized maxima of up to 30 knots across the Niagara Frontier. As previously hinted at, a cold front will trudge east this afternoon sparking a line of prefrontal showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable enough to support storms to become severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail and an isolated tornado. Storms are expected to arrive across far Western New York around 23Z to 00Z and make their way east across the region, with activity ending between 05Z and 06Z. Expect localized LIFR/IFR flight reductions within any of the stronger storms. In the wake of the cold front, ceilings will lower to IFR/MVFR during the later half of the night. Return of surface high pressure Wednesday will support all TAF sites to return to VFR by the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday Night through Friday...VFR. Saturday and Sunday...Potential for low end VFR/MVFR due to a low pressure system introducing rain to the region from the south. && .MARINE... Pressure gradient between exiting high pressure and an approaching cold front today is currently supporting the moderate southwesterlies and Small Craft Advisory criteria waves on the western end of Lake Ontario this afternoon. There will be a brief lull in the wind and wave action tonight, before winds shift to the northwest and bring another round of Small Craft Advisory criteria Wednesday. Winds on Lake Erie will be somewhat lighter, but still strong enough to produce a moderate chop today through Wednesday. Additionally, just ahead of a cold frontal passage this evening into overnight, expect showers and embedded thunderstorms to pass across the lakes producing damaging winds with a possibility of large hail. Winds will then begin to relax as high pressure returns Wednesday night and Thursday. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LOZ042. && DISCUSSION...EAJ AVIATION...EAJ MARINE...EAJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Buffalo NY 140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-201745- Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis- Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-Ontario-Chautauqua- Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie- 140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western and north central New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evenign and overnight. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 to 5)for severe weather for much of the region. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-201745- Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk- Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo- Lower Niagara River- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach- Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay- Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River- Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg- Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis- 140 PM EDT Tue May 19 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and the Saint Lawrence River. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight. There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 to 5)for severe weather for much of the region. Stronger storms may produce localized gusty winds and higher waves. Large hail will also be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 36 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:08 UTC.
12 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree branch downed several lines at Oneida St. and Rudlen Road.
Tree and several wires down on Upper Mountain Road.
Tree fell down on Wheatfield Street, partially blocking traffic.
Tree downed on Thompson Road between Roll Road and Greiner Road.
Tree down across Jefferson Drive.
Tree down on Campbell Boulevard.
A large tree down across north Transit Street.
Large tree and wires down on Telegraph Rd near Vernon Street.
Tree and wires down near Akron St. and Davison Rd.
A fallen tree brought down lines on Quaker Road.
A tree down in Shelby.
There were trees and wires down in Ridgeway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1342809, 1342810, 1342811, 1342812, 1342813, 1342814, 1342815, 1342816, 1342817, 1342818, 1342819, 1342820.