Wildfire in New Mexico, May 8 to 11, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1259 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1215 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

- Isolated virga showers capable of gusty outflow winds will be
  favored across northern NM on Saturday afternoon. Expect a 20%
  to 50% chance of thunderstorms along the eastern slopes of the
  central mountains as well as the adjacent highlands for Sunday
  afternoon and early evening.

- A warming trend is forecast going into the middle of next week,
  except for brief cooling across eastern NM on Sunday behind a
  backdoor cold front. Hot temperatures return next week with a
  minor to moderate risk of heat-related illnesses for sensitive
  populations.

- A gusty east canyon wind will develop late Sunday into the Rio
  Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys, with only low chances
  (20-30%) of speeds reaching Wind Advisory threshold.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

A warming trend is underway and temperatures are forecast to
climb above average areawide later this afternoon, with typical
late day breeziness. A shortwave trough is forecast to move
southeast through the Rockies Saturday, steering stronger
northwest winds aloft across NM. Deep layer mixing of the
atmosphere is forecast Saturday, generally up to around 500mb,
which will create breezy to locally windy conditions by afternoon
with large sustained/gust spreads. Temperatures will continue
climbing Saturday and are forecast to reach 5-15 degrees above
average across the area. The added surface heating will give a
boost to the convective process and the atmosphere will attempt to
wring-out what little moisture is present, resulting in late day
and very high based virga showers. Very little rain is expected to
reach the surface Saturday afternoon/evening, instead favoring
strong/erratic wind gusts. The shortwave trough will eject east
out of the Rockies Saturday night and push a backdoor cold front
down the eastern plains, bringing gusty northerly winds that may
briefly approach advisory threshold along the TX border.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

The backdoor cold front will stop it's southwest progression late
Sunday morning along the central mountain chain. Temperatures will
be 10-20 degrees cooler behind the front across eastern NM
relative to Saturday, while warm and very dry conditions persist
across western NM with highs reaching 5-10 degrees above average.
The front is forecast to bring sufficient moisture and upslope
forcing to produce a crop of isolated/scattered late day
convection along the east slopes of the central mountain and
adjacent eastern highlands into the evening hours. The front is
forecast to surge west through the gaps and canyons in the
central mountain chain late Sunday, likely between 4-7PM, creating
gusty east winds into the Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys
through the evening hours. There is a low chance (20-30%) for
speeds to reach Wind Advisory threshold in the middle RGV and
lower Tularosa Valley. Warming will resume Monday into Tuesday as
a 590dam 500mb high develops over AZ and shifts east over NM.
Sufficient, yet scant moisture will remain for isolated late day
gusty virga showers that will favor the southwest mountains.
Highs on Tuesday will challenge daily records at a number of
locales and there is a minor to moderate risk for heat-related
illnesses for sensitive populations. Above average temperatures
will then persist from mid through late week, with a slight chance
for showers and storms that will likely favor gusty/erratic winds
over wetting (>0.10") rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist through the TAF
period. Except for some afternoon/evening gustiness, winds will
generally be light.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1215 PM MDT Fri May 8 2026

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through at least
the next seven days. A drying/warming trend is underway and will
continue through Tuesday, except for along/east of the central
mountain chain on Sunday when a backdoor cold front will move
through. The backdoor front will bring and wind shift, cooler
temperatures and higher humidity to eastern NM, with chances for
late day wetting showers and storms along the east slopes of the
central mountain chain and adjacent eastern highlands. Warming
will ramp back up early next week, with well above average
temperatures and dry conditions. Moisture will trend up a tad
Wed/Thu, bringing a slight chance for a mix of wet/dry showers and
storms with potential for lightning ignitions. Dry, breezy and
warm conditions next Friday may be sufficient for fire growth
given ignitions from lightning on Wed/Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  47  84  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  78  36  78 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  43  78  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  40  83  41  81 /   0   0   5   0
El Morro........................  44  79  43  79 /   0   0   5   0
Grants..........................  43  82  44  82 /   0   5   5   0
Quemado.........................  45  80  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  50  82  53  79 /   0   0   0   5
Datil...........................  48  79  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  41  85  45  86 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  45  90  46  90 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  35  72  35  72 /   0   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  50  78  53  74 /   0   5   0  10
Pecos...........................  42  78  46  72 /   0   0   0  30
Cerro/Questa....................  43  73  42  69 /   5  20  20  10
Red River.......................  37  63  36  60 /  10  10  20  20
Angel Fire......................  33  69  34  65 /   5   5  10  40
Taos............................  36  77  39  73 /   0  10  10  10
Mora............................  41  75  44  66 /   0   0   0  40
Espanola........................  45  84  50  80 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  48  79  50  74 /   0   0   0  10
Santa Fe Airport................  45  83  48  78 /   0   0   0  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  55  85  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  86  56  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  49  89  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  52  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  47  90  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  50  88  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  46  89  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  51  88  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  48  89  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  53  84  57  80 /   0   0   0   5
Rio Rancho......................  51  87  55  84 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  54  91  59  88 /   0   0   0   5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  51  80  54  76 /   0   0   0  10
Tijeras.........................  50  82  54  78 /   0   0   0  10
Edgewood........................  45  83  51  77 /   0   0   0  20
Moriarty/Estancia...............  39  84  42  78 /   0   0   0  20
Clines Corners..................  45  80  50  68 /   0   0   0  20
Mountainair.....................  46  82  51  76 /   0   0   0  10
Gran Quivira....................  46  82  50  77 /   0   0   5  20
Carrizozo.......................  52  85  57  79 /   0   0   0  10
Ruidoso.........................  51  77  56  70 /   0   0   0  30
Capulin.........................  39  75  41  62 /  10   5  10  10
Raton...........................  38  80  44  66 /  10   5  10  10
Springer........................  39  82  46  69 /  10   5  10  10
Las Vegas.......................  44  79  47  66 /   0   0   0  20
Clayton.........................  46  84  47  67 /   5   5  10  10
Roy.............................  44  81  49  67 /   5   0  10  10
Conchas.........................  47  90  53  74 /   0   0   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  46  88  53  73 /   0   0   0  10
Tucumcari.......................  48  92  54  74 /   0   0   0   5
Clovis..........................  50  91  54  74 /   0   0   0   5
Portales........................  49  92  55  75 /   0   0   0   5
Fort Sumner.....................  48  92  56  76 /   0   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  52  95  60  82 /   0   0   0   5
Picacho.........................  50  88  55  77 /   0   0   0  10
Elk.............................  47  85  54  75 /   0   5   0  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11