Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, May 8, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
306 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain to gradually taper off over the next several hours.

* Marginal risk of severe storms in the far southern and
  southeastern portions of the CWA this afternoon. The
  strongest storms could produce hail and severe wind gusts.

* Warm on Saturday before chance (30-40%) of rain in the
  evening and overnight into Sunday.

* Cooler temperatures Sunday before a warming trend heading
  into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Intermittent light rain has been noted across the area this morning
and early afternoon, particularly along and north of US-36. ACARS
soundings from KMCI continue to depict a modest layer of dry air
near the surface; this has been largely responsible for the limited
amount of rain actually able to reach the surface. As of 18Z,
several stations have reported only a trace of rainfall, including
KSTJ which had several pockets of 25-35 dBZ reflectivities move over
the airport. These showers continue to be compressed southward ahead
of a weak cold front.

Recent mesoanalysis has indicated increasing low-level moisture
south of I-70 within the last several hours. This trend is expected
to continue through much of the afternoon courtesy of southwest
surface and low-level flow drawing in Gulf moisture. With the
introduction of additional moisture has come increased instability
Between 16Z and 19Z, around 400-600 J/kg of SBCAPE had been advected
into eastern Kansas and western Missouri south of I-70. This
destabilization trend has generally met expectations, with model
analysis suggesting a nearly 100% chance of >500 J/kg SBCAPE by 18Z
in our far southeastern KS counties and southern MO counties.
Indeed, it does appear that there is at least slight instability
present in the southern portions of our CWA with some potential (50-
80%) to become moderately unstable by mid-afternoon.

Storms are expected to develop within the next few hours across
southern portions of the CWA, taking advantage of the greater
instability and ~45 kts of effective bulk shear. For reasons such as
these, far southern and southeastern portions of the CWA have been
included in a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon. The
strongest storms could produce hail and severe wind gusts. Overall,
however, the severe threat remains low. Guidance has consistently
indicated upscale growth should occur quickly after initiation as
the cold front nears. Storms ahead of the front are expected to
fully exit the southeastern portion of our CWA by 9PM. Some CAMs
have resolved post-frontal convection, perhaps by tapping into
lingering instability. Confidence in this potential, however, is
quite low. While some instability may remain, inhibition will
increase dramatically in the wake of the front, reducing the ability
for storms to fire. If post-frontal convection occurs, it would
likely be elevated in nature and struggle to become strong/severe.

Behind the front, overnight lows will drop into the mid/low 50s with
roughly a 40% chance of falling into the upper 40s in northern
Missouri. Westerly/southwesterly surface flow will also quickly
return behind the front as low level high pressure builds to our
southwest and low pressure nears from the northwest. It was a nice
try, Cold Front, but this pattern will provide plentiful warmth and
sunshine for much of the day on Saturday with temperatures climbing
into the upper 70s and even low 80s. But alas! Cold Front makes a
return Saturday evening, this time with a more lasting impact. A
shortwave aloft will provide some lift ahead of the front, but with
very little instability and dry low-level air for much of the day,
it is unlikely to amount to much more than some rain showers and
maybe some rumbles of thunder. The vast majority of the area will
have a 30-40% chance of precipitation at any given time between
Saturday evening and early Sunday morning, with probabilities
decreasing from the north as the front progresses south. This time,
Cold Front makes its mark, leaving us with Sunday maximum
temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

The foreseeable future continues to be dominated by an upper-level
ridging pattern. There is potential for another cold front to move
through on Tuesday. Given the relatively slow moving nature of this
boundary, there should not be much of an impact on Tuesday outside
of some low-end (15-20%) rain chances in our far northeastern
counties. Instead, widespread cooler temperatures (albeit only ~5
degrees cooler) will take hold on Wednesday with prevailing
northerly surface flow. On Thursday, surface winds will shift out of
the south/southeast, once again increasing temperatures. In fact,
there is roughly a 30-50% chance of reaching 90F on Friday, mainly
in the western portions of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Intermittent light rain is currently ongoing or is expected in the
next few hours at all four terminals, occasionally dropping VIS to
MVFR thresholds. A PROB30 for -TSRA has been included in the KIXD
TAF for a brief period later this afternoon, but thunderstorms are
not expected to impact the other three TAF sites. As a cold front
moves through the region early this evening, winds will briefly
shift to out of the northwest before once again turning
west/southwest through the remainder of the TAF period. Behind the
cold front, CIGs will lift before clearing occurs overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Macko
LONG TERM...Macko
AVIATION...Macko

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
0509 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091009-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
0509 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is a low probability of widespread hazardous weather.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Please go to https://weather.gov/media/eax/DssPacket.pdf for more information on
potential weather hazards.

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chance (25-35%) for sprinkles across northern MO this morning
  before shower/storm chances (50-65%) return Friday afternoon
  along and south of I-70.

* Friday PM storms in the southern and eastern portions of the
  CWA could be strong to severe, with the primary hazard being
  large hail and damaging winds.

* Additional rain potential (45-55%) late Saturday PM/early
  Sunday AM.

* Warming trend expected early next week with widespread 80+
  degree temperatures Tuesday through Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
426 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

KSZ057-060-082200-
Miami KS-Linn KS-
426 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MIAMI AND NORTHERN LINN
COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 426 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Parker, or 7 miles south of Osawatomie, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Osawatomie, La Cygne, Linn Valley, Parker, Fontana, New Lancaster,
and Beagle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 9501 3845 9505 3856 9463 3832 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2126Z 252DEG 35KT 3840 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
502 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

KSZ060-MOZ043-053-082230-
Linn KS-Bates MO-Cass MO-
502 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LINN...SOUTHWESTERN
CASS AND NORTHWESTERN BATES COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Linn Valley, or 8 miles east of La Cygne, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Adrian, Archie, Amsterdam, Merwin, and Passaic.

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 132 and 151.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3829 9474 3839 9466 3839 9461 3844 9461
      3854 9453 3853 9419 3825 9433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 274DEG 29KT 3834 9460

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH