Wildfire in New Mexico, May 1 to 2, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1142 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1130 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- Widespread rain will impact areas along and east of the central
  mountain chain tonight into Friday with more sparse shower and
  thunderstorm activity in western areas Friday afternoon.

- Winter travel conditions will impact the high northern mountains
  tonight through Friday night.

- Gusty east winds up 50 mph will develop below canyons into the
  Rio Grande and Upper Tularosa Valleys tonight and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A wetter and cooler period of weather remains on track heading into
this evening and lasting through Friday night. Very beneficial rain
amounts generally between a third of an inch to one inch through
Friday night are favored for areas along and east of the central
mountain chain. Nuisance flooding will be a concern where moderate
showers to at brief heavier rainfall is favored tonight into Friday
morning across portions of southeastern NM. Meanwhile, high mountain
snow will favor the northern mountains where 1 to 4 inches is
favored except higher amounts up to 8 to 12 inches above 10,000
feet. Strong east canyon winds gusting to 50 mph will also impact
the ABQ metro area, particularly below the Tijeras Canyon area along
I-40 this evening and overnight.

The synoptic scale setup shows a 567dm H5 low moving ashore the
northern Baja Peninsula this afternoon, which will fill and phase
with an upstream trough over UT tonight into Friday. At the surface,
higher moisture remains pent up across eastern NM being pushed back
by drier westerlies infiltrating western and central NM. Shower
activity already beginning to break out over the northern mountains
this afternoon will expand along the east slopes of the central
mountain chain this evening as this moisture boundary pushes back
west, surging through the gaps of the central mountain chain this
evening. This will be the impetus for strong easterly winds pushing
through the gaps of the central mountain chain into Santa Fe and
Albuquerque. The Wind Advisory remains on track for the Middle Rio
Grande Valley and ABQ Metro where wind gusts overnight are favored
to reach 50 mph, notably through and immediately west of the Tijeras
Canyon area along I-40.

As the moisture and strong east winds continue on to and west of the
Continental Divide, what's left of the H5 low will track east
overhead along the international border with Mexico. Areas through
east-central and northeastern NM will see more stable conditions
favoring lighter shower activity thru the night. Upslope flow with
some modestly favorable dynamics beneath a deformation area will
help generate healthy snow production over the northern mountains.
The Winter Storm Warning for the Sangre de Cristo Mts there remains
on track, but the elevations for the healthiest accumulations >6
inches have trended higher to >9,500 feet. Meanwhile, guidance has
come down for snow along the Raton Pass and Johnson/Bartlett Mesas
likely thanks to slightly warmer temperatures and less favorable
upslope flow. Given this continued downward trend for snow there,
will do a rare downgrade of the Winter Storm Warning to a Winter
Weather Advisory. Areas of south-central and southeastern NM will
see the best potential for thunderstorms and moderate to locally
heavy rainfall tonight into Friday morning. A few spots could see a
quick 0.25" to 0.75" over 3 to 6 hours overnight, with some nuisance
flooding concern in low-lying areas mainly in Chaves County.
Elsewhere in that part of the forecast area, rises on area streams
in and around the Ruidoso burn scar areas are expected, but the
threat of burn scar flash flooding remains low. Rainfall tapers off
over eastern NM, switching focus over the Continental Divide and
central mountain chain Friday afternoon and evening. The best
chances for snow over the northern mountains also shifts more into
the Tusas Mts and very high peaks of the Jemez Mts during this time.
A Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for the Tusas Mts, but there
is some uncertainty with snow ratios given the afternoon timing for
the best snow accumulations. Will let the midnight shift take
another pass at this. Shower activity and easterly winds finally
begins to wane heading into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The weekend sees drier and warmer conditions each day with enough
remnant boundary layer moisture to allow for isolated to scattered
showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday
afternoon favoring the central and western high terrain. Westerly
winds increase Monday ahead of the next approaching upper low along
the CA coastline. This upper low is favored to track across southern
CA Tuesday and AZ/NM Wednesday. A few pieces of energy or vort-lobes
will rotate out ahead of this low into the Desert Southwest bringing
increasing precipitation chances to the area. Thereafter, forecast
confidence dips considerably. Global numerical models are having a
hard time resolving a high amplitude jetstream pattern over the
Pacific and western CONUS. This is allowing for a few different
plausible scenarios for the aforementioned upper low to either
progress eastward or stall over NM for a few days into late next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A pair of upper level disturbances are approaching New Mexico from
the southwest and northwest while cool, moist moves over the
eastern half of the state. This will continue to lead to rain and
high elevation snow tonight into Friday morning, especially along
and east of the central mountain chain. Snow will mix with rain
at elevations between 7,000 to 8,000 feet, turning more
consistently snow above. Widespread MVFR ceilings (below 3,000 ft)
and visibility (below 5 SM) will be common in the eastern half of
New Mexico with scattered areas of IFR ceilings (below 1,000 ft)
and visibility (below 3 SM). Areas observing snow will be more
prone to IFR conditions. Rain will gradually thin into Friday
afternoon over the east, but ceilings and visibility will be slow
to lift until late afternoon or early evening. Western areas will
start to see shower and thunderstorm development Friday afternoon
with lightning, brief isolated downpours, small hail, and gusty
outflow winds accompanying.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 PM MDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Dry and breezy elevated fire weather conditions remain this
afternoon over western NM, with cooler temperatures and higher
moisture alongside easterly winds remaining pent up east of the
central mountain chain. This higher moisture surges westward this
evening and tonight thru the gaps of the central mountain chain
bringing a strong east canyon wind to Santa Fe and Albuquerque. Fire
weather concerns get shut down thru western NM as this boundary
progresses westward to and past the Continental Divide Friday.
Meanwhile, a storm system tracking east along the International
Border will generate abundant wetting rainfall along and east of the
central mountain chain tonight through Friday night with high
elevation snow over the northern mountains. Sparse and isolated
wetting rain footprints are expected along and west of the Rio
Grande Valley however. However, a few isolated to scattered
thunderstorms could produce locally heavier rain amounts along the
Continental Divide in west-central NM Friday afternoon. Meanwhile,
beneficial and healthy snow amounts of 4 to 12 inches are forecast
in the higher elevations of the northern mountains.

Fire weather concerns remain low this weekend as conditions dry out
and warm up. Humidity recoveries remain good to excellent alongside
lighter southerly winds. Drier westerlies are favored to return
Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching storm system from the
west. Precipitation chances begin to increase over far northern NM
Monday, and over more of the area Tuesday and Wednesday. However,
forecast confidence is notably low Tuesday and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  38  70  41  70 /   0  10  10   0
Dulce...........................  28  61  27  66 /  10  60  50  20
Cuba............................  35  59  31  62 /  30  50  40  30
Gallup..........................  33  66  31  67 /   0  20  20  20
El Morro........................  37  62  35  61 /   5  40  40  30
Grants..........................  36  62  33  64 /  10  50  30  30
Quemado.........................  38  64  37  64 /  10  30  20  50
Magdalena.......................  43  56  38  60 /  30  50  50  40
Datil...........................  41  58  37  59 /  20  60  60  60
Reserve.........................  36  71  37  68 /  30  30  40  40
Glenwood........................  40  76  39  73 /  40  20  30  30
Chama...........................  29  54  25  58 /  30  80  70  40
Los Alamos......................  38  52  36  59 /  70  80  50  40
Pecos...........................  35  48  29  60 /  90  70  50  50
Cerro/Questa....................  32  52  28  58 /  60  80  70  40
Red River.......................  26  41  21  48 /  80  80  70  40
Angel Fire......................  24  45  17  52 /  90  80  70  40
Taos............................  32  55  27  60 /  70  80  70  40
Mora............................  30  43  25  57 /  90  90  60  40
Espanola........................  42  61  36  67 /  70  70  50  30
Santa Fe........................  40  52  34  59 /  80  60  50  50
Santa Fe Airport................  41  55  33  62 /  70  60  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  45  57  41  64 /  60  50  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  45  59  40  66 /  50  40  30  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  61  39  67 /  50  40  30  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  47  60  41  68 /  50  40  30  30
Belen...........................  46  63  38  69 /  40  40  30  30
Bernalillo......................  46  61  39  68 /  60  40  30  30
Bosque Farms....................  43  61  36  68 /  50  40  30  30
Corrales........................  46  61  39  69 /  60  40  30  30
Los Lunas.......................  45  62  38  68 /  40  40  30  30
Placitas........................  45  56  40  63 /  60  50  30  40
Rio Rancho......................  47  61  40  69 /  50  40  30  30
Socorro.........................  49  64  43  67 /  50  50  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  39  50  35  61 /  60  60  30  40
Tijeras.........................  40  52  36  62 /  60  60  30  40
Edgewood........................  37  49  32  62 /  70  70  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  33  51  29  63 /  80  70  30  30
Clines Corners..................  34  43  31  58 /  90  80  30  30
Mountainair.....................  37  49  33  62 /  70  70  30  40
Gran Quivira....................  38  48  33  60 /  80  80  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  45  53  40  62 /  90  90  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  39  46  34  56 /  90 100  30  40
Capulin.........................  29  45  26  58 / 100  90  30  10
Raton...........................  32  50  25  63 / 100  80  30  20
Springer........................  34  49  28  64 / 100  90  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  32  43  29  59 /  90  90  40  30
Clayton.........................  37  54  35  68 /  90 100  20  10
Roy.............................  34  47  31  62 / 100 100  30  10
Conchas.........................  40  52  34  68 /  90 100  30  10
Santa Rosa......................  39  48  34  64 / 100  90  20  10
Tucumcari.......................  41  54  36  71 / 100  90  20  10
Clovis..........................  42  52  38  67 /  90  90  30  10
Portales........................  43  54  38  68 /  90  90  30   5
Fort Sumner.....................  42  52  36  67 /  90 100  20  10
Roswell.........................  49  54  43  66 /  90 100  30  10
Picacho.........................  43  51  38  62 /  90 100  30  20
Elk.............................  39  50  34  59 /  90 100  50  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT Friday for NMZ219.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight MDT Friday night for
NMZ213>215.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for NMZ227.

&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...52