An incoming shortwave trough brought showers and some thunderstorms to west Texas and southeast New Mexico overnight April 30th and especially during the morning of May 1st. During the morning of the 1st, rainfall became locally heavy at times, which resulting in flash flooding in urban and low-lying areas.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
An incoming shortwave trough brought showers and some thunderstorms to west Texas and southeast New Mexico overnight April 30th and especially during the morning of May 1st. During the morning of the 1st, rainfall became locally heavy at times, which resulting in flash flooding in urban and low-lying areas. Showers largely cleared the area during the afternoon of the 1st as the shortwave moved east of MAF's CWA, taking the best lift and moisture with it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 1, 1:42 AM MST, 2 hours 18 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
342 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
- Numerous to widespread showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
will spread over much of the area through this afternoon before
tapering off this evening. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash
flooding over portions of the Guadalupe/Davis Mountains,
southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and the Permian Basin.
- Below normal temperatures are forecast through the weekend
before highs rebound closer to normal by next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
Early morning water vapor imagery shows an upper level shortwave
trough moving over the vicinity of northern Mexico and the
southern Arizona/New Mexico border early this morning. Deep layer
moisture continues to spread over southeast New Mexico and much
of west Texas within the southwesterly flow aloft in advance of
this system with precipitable water values between 0.9 and 1.2
inches over our CWA per SPC mesoscale analysis. A surface cold
front will remain oriented along the far western fringes of the
forecast area through the day. Short range model solutions and
high resolution CAMs remain consistent with bringing numerous to
widespread coverage of rain showers with embedded thunderstorms
across much of our forecast area through the morning hours as the
shortwave trough approaches from the west. The abundant atmospheric
moisture will be prime for heavy rain, with increasing probabilities
for rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches generally along and east of
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains today. A Flood Watch remains in
effect for most areas along and east of the mountains today,
including the Guadalupe/Davis/Delaware Mountains, the southeast
New Mexico Plains, the Trans Pecos region, and much of the Permian
Basin. We did opt to add Central Brewster County into the watch
given potential for rounds of heavy rainfall/convection over
portions of that zone today. Flooding of urban, poor drainage, low
water crossings, creeks/streams, and other low lying areas may
occur if heavy rains fall within a short period of time. The
potential for heavy rainfall should shift east of our region by
late this afternoon with the passing shortwave trough, but a few
showers and thunderstorms could linger into this evening before
rain chances continue to diminish tonight. Temperatures will be
well below normal behind the cold front today and along with the
high rain chances. Readings are forecast to range in the 50s and
60s over much of the region, except 70s to low 80s along the
Presidio Valley and portions of the Big Bend. Lows tonight are
forecast to fall into the 40s over much of the region, except
upper 30s in the higher terrain areas and lower to mid 50s along
the Rio Grande.
Drier conditions are anticipated on Saturday underneath a west-
northwest flow pattern aloft. Surface high pressure will gradually
shift to our east, but temperatures remain below normal with highs
mostly in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026
No significant changes were made to the extended forecast. Weak
ridging embedded within quasi-zonal flow aloft will prevail Sunday
into Monday, allowing for a warming trend both days. Highs in the
70s on Sunday should trend upward into the 80s over much of our
region by Monday (a few locations may reach into the low to mid
90s along the Rio Grande Monday afternoon). The next upper level
trough/low is forecast to deepen over California and the Desert
Southwest Monday night into Tuesday with the trough/low
potentially pinching over the Desert Southwest and Baja region
during the middle to latter part of the week. Shortwave impulses
within southwesterly flow aloft ahead of this feature along with a
potential front may support at least a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms returning back into the forecast by Thursday.
Temperatures otherwise remain near to slightly below normal
through the middle to latter part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1107 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026
Hi-res models are persistent in bringing in IFR cigs/vsbys over
the next few hours. However, models keep pushing back precip.
Currently, the main event looks to hit KCNM/KPEQ 09-15Z, and
eastern terminals 12-18Z. Skies look to begin scattering out E-W
after 00Z Saturday. expect frequent updates due to forecast
uncertainties in the models.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring 57 44 70 48 / 90 10 0 0
Carlsbad 59 46 65 46 / 90 30 10 0
Dryden 70 50 67 51 / 90 20 0 0
Fort Stockton 64 45 67 48 / 100 20 10 0
Guadalupe Pass 54 41 57 47 / 80 30 10 0
Hobbs 56 40 66 44 / 90 20 0 0
Marfa 65 39 64 41 / 80 20 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 57 44 67 49 / 100 10 0 0
Odessa 57 44 67 50 / 100 10 0 0
Wink 60 44 66 48 / 90 20 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Andrews-Central Brewster-
Crane-Davis Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-
Eastern Culberson-Ector-Gaines-Glasscock-Guadalupe
Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Loving-Martin-Midland-Pecos-Reagan-Reeves County Plains-
Terrell-Upton-Ward-Winkler.
NM...Flood Watch through this afternoon for Central Lea-Eddy County
Plains-Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Northern Lea-
Southern Lea.
&&
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...99The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 163 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:03 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Delayed report from the public of flooded streets near the intersection of Hermosa Drive and 1st Street. The total time of occurrence is estimated by radar. No damage was reported.
A report was received from the public via MPING of road/street flooding in Hobbs. The total time of occurrence is estimated by radar. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1323995, 1323994.