Damaging Wind in New Mexico, June 5, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
550 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 957 PM MDT Thu Jun 4 2026

- Thunderstorm chances continue today and Saturday, though
  Saturday limited mostly to areas east of the Rio Grande Valley.

- Drier and warmer on Sunday through Wednesday with many lowland
areas seeing their first 100 degree days of the season.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1019 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Thunderstorms will flare up once again this afternoon as the
upper-level low continues to move northeast. All areas of the CWA
will see at least a slight chance of precipitation this evening,
with the eastern Rio Grande Valley receiving the highest chance
of storms (40-60%). The low reaches the Texas Panhandle on
Saturday, so any limited moisture be relegated to the eastern
reaches of Otero and Hudspeth Counties, while the rest of the
region will see temperatures creep back into the 90s.

A upper-level ridge builds up to our west for Sunday as the
upper-level low exits our region, and the lowlands will breach the
triple digit mark at the earliest, Sunday, at the latest, Tuesday.
Clear skies and dry air will be in place from Sunday to Tuesday.
Heading into Wednesday, a new Pacific system moves onshore, and
southerly flow will facilitate sub-tropical moisture back into our
area. However, the GFS/ECMWF still show a discrepancy for when
thunderstorms will arrive; GFS has the low deeper into the Four
Corners region Wednesday, thereby raising the chance for
thunderstorms, whereas the ECMWF keeps the low further north,
keeping thunderstorm chances down. On Thursday, the GFS has drier
flow moving in while the ECMWF has the moisture stay in our
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 549 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

SCT090 SCT-BKN150 BKN-OVC250. Isolated BKN060CB 4-6SM -TSRA with
thunderstorms mainly done by 07Z. Surface winds variable 6-10
knots, with storm outflow gusting 20-30 knots. Local 1-3SM BLDU
near storms. Models showing another large storm outflow developing
in Sierra County around 03Z with northerly wind gusts of 25-35
knots. This outflow will move south down across Luna, Dona Ana,
and El Paso Counties around 04Z. More thunderstorms will likely
develop along this outflow.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1019 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Today will be the last day of widespread thunderstorm chances as
moisture begins exiting the area. Min RH values will be in the
lower teens toward the AZ border with upper 30s to lower 40s
across Hudspeth County and into the Sacramento Mountains. By
Saturday, areas west of the Rio Grande drop into the lower and mid
teens while areas east hold onto the 20s. This will lead to poor
overnight recoveries Saturday night, and by Sunday afternoon, all
areas except the highest elevations will have afternoon min RH
values near 10% while highs top out up to 5 degrees above normal,
increasing more for Sunday. Thunderstorm chances will also be
confined to easterly areas on Saturday with all areas staying dry
on Sunday. Winds will remain light throughout the period, staying
under 10 MPH during the afternoon. Vent rates will range poor east
to excellent west today. Western areas will improve a category to
fair on Saturday with all areas ranging very good to excellent on
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  65  94  71  99 /  40   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            56  86  60  93 /  30   0   0   0
Las Cruces               59  94  64  96 /  30   0   0   0
Alamogordo               61  91  67  96 /  30  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               45  69  50  74 /  30  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences    63  94  67  95 /  30  10  10   0
Silver City              55  89  58  87 /  20   0   0   0
Deming                   60  99  64  98 /  30   0   0   0
Lordsburg                61  94  62  94 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       65  93  69  98 /  30   0   0   0
Dell City                58  89  60  97 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             62  95  65 101 /  30   0   0   0
Loma Linda               59  85  63  90 /  30   0   0   0
Fabens                   61  95  64 100 /  30   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             60  93  65  97 /  30   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           68  93  74  97 /  30   0   0   0
Jornada Range            60  93  64  97 /  30   0   0   0
Hatch                    61  97  66  99 /  30   0   0   0
Columbus                 64  97  70  98 /  20   0   0   0
Orogrande                59  90  63  96 /  20   0   0   0
Mayhill                  51  80  55  87 /  30  40  10  10
Mescalero                49  80  53  84 /  30  30   0   0
Timberon                 46  75  50  81 /  30  30   0   0
Winston                  53  86  57  87 /  30  10  10   0
Hillsboro                61  91  65  93 /  30  10   0   0
Spaceport                58  92  62  96 /  30   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             52  90  54  88 /  30  10   0   0
Hurley                   56  91  60  90 /  20   0   0   0
Cliff                    56  95  57  94 /  20   0   0   0
Mule Creek               55  91  55  89 /  20   0   0   0
Faywood                  58  90  61  90 /  20   0   0   0
Animas                   61  95  61  94 /  20   0   0   0
Hachita                  60  94  62  94 /  20   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           60  93  62  94 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale               57  88  59  88 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

FORECASTER...17-Hefner

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
223 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

NMZ401-403-425-426-052100-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley NM-Upper Gila River Valley NM-
Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range NM-
Central Grant County/Silver City Area NM-
223 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY THROUGH 300
PM MDT...

At 223 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Silver City. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Little Walnut Village, Silver City, Tyrone, and Mangas Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3288 10832 3286 10819 3270 10820 3272 10846
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 013DEG 4KT 3283 10828

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DENNHARDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service El Paso TX
306 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

NMZ403-407-425-052130-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley NM-
Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin NM-
Central Grant County/Silver City Area NM-
306 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY THROUGH
330 PM MDT...

At 305 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Sherman to near Hurley. Movement was
south at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Faywood, Hurley, Sherman, North Hurley, and City Of Rocks State
Park. This includes US-180 between Hurley and the Luna County line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3261 10793 3252 10793 3252 10835 3273 10825
      3274 10787 3261 10780
TIME...MOT...LOC 2105Z 002DEG 16KT 3271 10791 3273 10818

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

DENNHARDT