What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 12:47 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
- Windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire spread and large fire growth into mid week.
- Dry storms and showers will produce strong and erratic wind gusts in central and northern New Mexico this afternoon and evening.
- A few strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern New Mexico this afternoon and again on Wednesday near the Texas and Oklahoma borders.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 12:47 PM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
147 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
- Windy and dry conditions will increase the threat of rapid fire
spread and large fire growth into mid week.
- Dry storms and showers will produce strong and erratic wind
gusts in central and northern New Mexico this afternoon and
evening.
- A few strong to severe storms will focus over far eastern New
Mexico this afternoon and again on Wednesday near the Texas and
Oklahoma borders.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Water vapor imagery shows a longwave trough over the Mojave desert
with two shortwaves embedded within it. One is over the Four Corners
region, while the other is in central California. The one over the
Four Corners will provide some lift today, helping to generate
isolated convection over central and northern NM. With dry southwest
flow draped across the western half of the state, any convection
that develops in this area will be of the drier nature. Across the
east, low level moisture pushed in overnight and continues to trend
higher. Storms here will gradually trend wetter through the
afternoon. Gusty and erratic outflow wind gusts will be the main
threat with any convection today, although some hi-res models are
hinting at the development of a supercell in Union County where the
shear environment is more favorable for organized storms. In north-
central NM, there will be modest instability (100-200 J/kg of MU
CAPE) this afternoon and near normal moisture. While the 18Z
Sounding at KABQ was relatively unimpressive, the increase of
moisture through the afternoon should destabilize the atmosphere and
support a few virga showers and dry storms.
Wednesday's weather will be very similar to today, with dry
southwest flow in western NM and more moisture in the east. There
will be less upper-level forcing than today, but the tightening of
the dryline in eastern NM will serve as a forcing mechanism for
afternoon convection. While a few gusty showers and even storms
could develop west of the central mountain chain, confidence is
lower than today. Bulk shear will be slightly higher tomorrow (25
to 35 knots) so a severe storm or two could develop in the eastern
plains where PoPs are highest. The gradual warming and drying trend
will continue across the western half of the state Wednesday where
fire weather concerns remain.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Southwest flow will begin to weaken late week, allowing ridging to
build in and moisture to sneak up from the south. This should be
enough for a few isolated storms over the Sacramento mountains both
Thursday and Friday afternoons. Storm motions will be slow so there
is a threat of flash flooding over the Ruidoso area burn scars.
Currently, the NBM has around a 10% chance of at least 0.25" over
the burn areas both Thursday and Friday, although these chances
could trend higher over the next 48 hours. Elsewhere, it will still
be dry both Thursday and Friday, with impressively low dewpoints in
the single digits and teens across the northwest third of the state.
This drying in an already drought stricken area will continue to dry
out vegetation, which is a concern given that the 4th of July is on
Saturday. While it is technically Monsoon Season, it has been dry of
late, particularly in the Four Corners region so fireworks have the
potential to start additional fires. The good news is that rain
chances will trend up early next week as ridging begins to develop
over the desert southwest. Storm chances will likely spread from
east to west Sunday through Tuesday, with increasing coverage each
day. By the middle of next week, all ensemble systems are showing
PWATs of 100 to 130% of normal across all of New Mexico so there
will likely be at least scattered slow-moving storms each day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 AM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Isolated to scattered storms will favor areas along and east of
the Rio Grande Valley today. Storms will have the potential to
produce strong and erratic outflow wind gusts, with the highest
chances across the northeast where storms may become severe.
Blowing dust may accompany outflow boundaries along the Rio Grande
Valley this afternoon. Storms will decrease in coverage after
sunset, although outflow boundaries will persist into the late
evening hours. Winds overnight will generally be light, except for
a brisk southerly breeze in the eastern plains.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Widespread elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are
ongoing around the state today. There is a stark difference between
western and eastern NM, with dewpoints ranging from as low as 20 F
in the northwest to nearly 60 F in the southeast. Isolated to
scattered storms will favor eastern NM today, with gusty and erratic
wind gusts the main hazard. A few dry storms and virga showers may
develop across central and northern areas, including the northern
mountains this afternoon. Wednesday will be very similar to today,
except even drier across the west. Despite the lower humidities,
winds will also be lower so no fire weather headlines have been
issued for Wednesday. Once again, isolated dry storms will be a
concern on the northwest fringes of the moisture, which will likely
set-up over the Central/Northeast Highlands just east of the central
mountain chain.
Dry weather prevails Thursday through Saturday with the exception of
an isolated storm or two in and around the Sacramento mountains.
Humidities will continue to trend drier in western NM, with 10 to 15
hours of single digit RH each afternoon. Moisture will gradually
return to the region from the south and east early next week, with
increasing shower and storm chances, lighter winds, and higher
humidities.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 53 90 51 91 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 44 86 42 89 / 5 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 53 85 51 87 / 10 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 45 85 44 87 / 0 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 50 84 49 86 / 0 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 49 88 47 90 / 0 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 52 85 50 88 / 0 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 60 87 58 88 / 5 5 0 0
Datil........................... 54 83 52 86 / 0 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 47 88 45 91 / 0 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 51 93 50 96 / 0 0 0 0
Chama........................... 44 79 43 82 / 20 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 60 84 60 86 / 20 10 5 0
Pecos........................... 52 85 52 87 / 30 10 10 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 52 82 51 84 / 30 10 5 0
Red River....................... 44 73 44 75 / 30 10 5 0
Angel Fire...................... 39 77 38 79 / 40 10 5 0
Taos............................ 51 84 50 87 / 20 5 5 0
Mora............................ 50 82 50 85 / 30 10 10 0
Espanola........................ 58 91 57 93 / 20 10 5 0
Santa Fe........................ 57 85 56 87 / 20 10 10 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 55 88 54 90 / 10 10 5 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 62 91 61 93 / 10 5 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 63 93 62 94 / 10 5 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 95 59 96 / 10 5 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 63 94 61 95 / 10 5 5 0
Belen........................... 61 95 58 96 / 10 5 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 62 94 60 95 / 10 5 5 0
Bosque Farms.................... 59 94 57 96 / 10 5 0 0
Corrales........................ 62 95 60 96 / 10 5 5 0
Los Lunas....................... 59 95 57 96 / 10 5 0 0
Placitas........................ 64 90 62 91 / 10 10 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 63 94 62 95 / 10 5 5 0
Socorro......................... 67 98 65 99 / 5 0 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 86 57 88 / 10 10 0 0
Tijeras......................... 59 87 58 89 / 10 10 0 0
Edgewood........................ 57 88 55 90 / 10 10 5 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 52 90 49 91 / 10 10 5 0
Clines Corners.................. 55 84 53 86 / 20 20 20 0
Mountainair..................... 58 88 56 90 / 10 10 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 58 87 56 88 / 5 10 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 64 90 63 91 / 0 10 0 10
Ruidoso......................... 58 82 57 83 / 10 30 5 40
Capulin......................... 54 85 54 88 / 20 20 20 0
Raton........................... 51 88 50 91 / 20 10 10 0
Springer........................ 53 90 52 93 / 30 10 10 0
Las Vegas....................... 53 86 53 88 / 40 10 10 0
Clayton......................... 63 93 62 95 / 20 20 10 0
Roy............................. 58 88 58 90 / 20 10 20 0
Conchas......................... 64 96 63 97 / 20 30 10 0
Santa Rosa...................... 62 90 61 92 / 20 30 10 0
Tucumcari....................... 67 96 66 96 / 30 30 20 5
Clovis.......................... 65 91 64 92 / 40 40 30 30
Portales........................ 66 93 65 93 / 50 50 30 30
Fort Sumner..................... 66 93 65 95 / 20 30 10 10
Roswell......................... 68 94 67 95 / 30 40 20 20
Picacho......................... 62 91 60 91 / 20 50 10 50
Elk............................. 60 89 58 90 / 20 40 20 50
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ105.
&&
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 30, 11:49 AM MST, 3 hours 35 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1249 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
NMZ239-240-301915-
Southwest Chaves County NM-Eastern Lincoln County NM-
1249 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN AND WEST
CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM MDT...
At 1249 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles east of Elk, or 38 miles southeast of Ruidoso, moving northeast
at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mainly rural areas of Southeastern Lincoln and West Central Chaves
Counties.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibility below one quarter mile at times.
&&
LAT...LON 3313 10518 3321 10509 3304 10490 3288 10514
3303 10529
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 227DEG 14KT 3300 10515
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
44Special weather statement, Jun 30, 12:33 PM MST, 2 hours 51 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
NMZ230-302000-
Union County NM-
133 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN UNION COUNTY UNTIL
2 PM MDT...
At 133 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Clayton Lake State Park, or 9 miles northwest of
Clayton, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clayton Lake State Park and Seneca.
This includes Highway 64 between Mile Markers 415 and 429.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3640 10326 3649 10347 3674 10332 3662 10303
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 211DEG 14KT 3650 10332
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
77Special weather statement, Jun 30, 1:02 PM MST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
202 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
NMZ238-302030-
Chaves County Plains NM-
202 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL 230
PM MDT...
At 202 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 23
miles southwest of Roswell, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mainly rural areas of Central Chaves County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3307 10488 3314 10491 3323 10490 3336 10472
3312 10460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 247DEG 16KT 3316 10484
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
77Special weather statement, Jun 30, 1:30 PM MST, 1 hour 54 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
230 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
NMZ238-302100-
Chaves County Plains NM-
230 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY UNTIL 3 PM
MDT...
At 230 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southwest of Roswell, moving northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Roswell and Midway.
This includes the following highways...
Highway 380 between Mile Markers 156 and 160. Highway 285 between
Mile Markers 99 and 104.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibility below one quarter mile at times.
&&
LAT...LON 3311 10466 3324 10486 3351 10462 3335 10434
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 218DEG 18KT 3324 10469
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
77Special weather statement, Jun 30, 1:44 PM MST, 1 hour 40 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
244 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
NMZ232>234-302115-
Guadalupe County NM-Eastern San Miguel County NM-Quay County NM-
244 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GUADALUPE...WESTERN
QUAY AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM MDT...
At 244 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Newkirk, or 28 miles west of Tucumcari, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Montoya and Newkirk.
This includes Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 298 and 320.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3522 10422 3532 10412 3511 10390 3495 10421
3509 10433
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 224DEG 20KT 3509 10421
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
77Special weather statement, Jun 30, 3:20 PM MST, 4 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
420 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
NMZ235>237-302245-
Curry County NM-De Baca County NM-Roosevelt County NM-
420 PM MDT Tue Jun 30 2026
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CURRY...
EAST CENTRAL DE BACA AND NORTHWESTERN ROOSEVELT COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
MDT...
At 420 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms 7 miles southeast of Tolar, or 22 miles east of Fort
Sumner, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Melrose, Tolar and Taiban.
This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 340 and 364.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on roadways as storms move through the area.
&&
LAT...LON 3432 10395 3437 10407 3461 10393 3460 10379
3453 10353 3423 10376
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 208DEG 19KT 3436 10387
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
77