What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 4:40 PM MST, 1 hour 39 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 527 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
- Thunderstorm activity will favor the high terrain through this evening, then along and east of the central mountain chain on Friday. There is a moderate risk of heavy rainfall on recent burn scars Friday near Ruidoso.
- A moderate heat risk remains for lower elevation areas of western and central NM Friday, and all lower elevation locales this weekend where highs will flirt with 100 degrees.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 18, 4:40 PM MST, 1 hour 39 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
540 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 527 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
- Thunderstorm activity will favor the high terrain through this
evening, then along and east of the central mountain chain on
Friday. There is a moderate risk of heavy rainfall on recent
burn scars Friday near Ruidoso.
- A moderate heat risk remains for lower elevation areas of
western and central NM Friday, and all lower elevation locales
this weekend where highs will flirt with 100 degrees.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 356 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Quick update to increase forecast PoPs through the evening as
storm coverage is higher than what was previously forecast. Storms
through the evening will remain capable of small hail and gusty
outflow winds. Updates out shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Minor upper level ridging continues over NM this afternoon
underneath a strong upper level jet traversing the northern half of
CONUS. The backdoor front that pushed through early this morning has
begun to rest up against the central mountain chain, and we should
begin to see cumulus, and soon thereafter, storm development. The
lower levels are still fairly dry given current RH observations and
model/observed soundings, so not expecting very efficient rainfall
rates from any developing thunderstorms across the high terrain.
This leaves a low risk of flash flooding near burn scars across the
southern half of the state. Additional storm development looks
likely across the Gila Mountains in southwest NM, with roughly
the same atmospheric conditions limiting efficient rainfall.
Forecast soundings do look more promising for strong outflow winds
eclipsing 40mph in that area this afternoon and early evening.
Going along with outflows, light showers look to form across the
eastern Sandia Mountains early this evening which are likely to
produce a breezy, consistent southeast wind throughout the ABQ
metro area. Wind speeds don't seem likely to get above 35mph, but
these outflows are forecast to be consistent through about 10pm.
It will also remain a hot one today west of the central mountains,
with lower elevations forecast to get into the high 90s to near 100
again. Most areas will be near to almost 10F above average, except
for areas that got hit with the backdoor front. This translates to a
moderate to locally major heat risk for the Rio Grande Valley and
northwest areas this afternoon and evening, so folks should continue
to stay hydrated and take breaks if outside for a long time.
Friday looks to be a similar day, outside of no backdoor front. The
moisture from today's front remains in eastern NM, providing early
morning low clouds and the moisture source for additional orographic
thunderstorms. East to southeast upslope flow provides the trigger
mechanism for the thunderstorm development, and with weak upper
level flow, storms should drift off to the east and southeast off of
the high terrain. There is a low chance a few storms could congeal
into a broken line as they move off of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains due to a slight increase in bulk shear, but there is not
high confidence in this occurring. The Sacramento Mountain burn
scars have a low to moderate threat of flash flooding, mainly due to
the increased atmospheric moisture. However, confidence is not high
in rainfall rates efficient enough to produce flash flooding to
hoist a Flood Watch. Temperatures rebound ever so slightly in
eastern NM while remaining much of the same west of the central
mountain chain. Thus, additional areas of moderate to locally major
heat risk exist for the Rio Grande Valley and northwest areas again,
including ABQ and Farmington.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Upper level westerly flow begins to overtake the area Saturday,
continuing to decrease the moisture content in the already dry west
parts of NM. Additionally, a surface low is expected to form over
portions of southeast CO and northeast NM during the afternoon. The
combination of these will result in gusty west to southwest winds
across the northern third of the state, along with very dry
conditions. In turn, temperatures also increase once again, mainly
across eastern NM while remaining stagnant across western and
central NM. One part of this forecast that is uncertain is the
potential for a dryline thunderstorm setup across eastern NM
Saturday. The Canadian model is most bullish on this setup, though
also begins Saturday morning with much higher RH values across
eastern NM and does not develop the surface low as far south.
Nonetheless, there is a low chance for a few thunderstorms to form
off the dryline as most models are showing a rather sharp dewpoint
gradient.
Sunday looks to be quite dry and hot with temperatures in the low
100s across the lower elevations of the state. A few breezes here
and there will interrupt an otherwise hot day. A backdoor front
looks to enter into northeast NM Sunday night into Monday,
alongside the low chances at storms clipping Union County. This
backdoor front looks to replenish the moisture across eastern NM
for Monday. Northwest flow looks to set up across the state as
well, setting up another chance for a few strong to severe storms
to roll off of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains during the afternoon
and evening of Monday and Tuesday. As we progress further into
the week, there's a strong signal for the first true Monsoon high
to build over western NM and eastern AZ. The most recent model
suite has increased the daily precipitation across northeast and
eastern NM alongside the building high, so this will be a trend
that needs to be watched.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Showers and thunderstorms have developed across much of the high
terrain across western NM as well as along the Central Mountain
Chain. These storms will continue to be capable of small hail and
gusty outflow winds. Outflow boundary collisions will allow for a
few showers and thunderstorms to develop within the Rio Grande
Valley through the evening. These storms will also be capable of
gusty and erratic winds. Storms should mostly diminish by 04-05Z,
however, there is a low chance that storms may develop near and
east of KROW late tonight. Confidence is low that this will occur.
There are better chances of MVFR cigs developing overnight across
far eastern NM, and perhaps as far west as KLVS and KROW. These
low cigs should erode by 18Z Fri. On Friday afternoon, another
round of showers and thunderstorms will develop along and just
east of the Central Mountain Chain before tracking eastward across
the plains through the evening. These storms will also be capable
of small hail and gusty/erratic winds.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 136 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Widespread critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the
next several days. Hot temperatures continue in the lower elevation
areas (outside of northeast NM behind the front earlier today) with
thunderstorms across the higher elevations, mainly along the central
mountain chain and the southwest mountains. Much of the same is
expected for Friday, though with a slightly higher chance of wetting
precipitation across the central mountain chain with little to no
chance of storms forming across the southwest mountains. Moving into
the weekend, dry conditions enter western NM, and a surface low
looks to create breezy conditions across northeast NM. Elevated to
near critical conditions are expected for most areas along and
north of I-40 mainly for very low RH (west of I-25) and breezy to
strong winds (east of I-25). The best overlap and highest chances
for critical fire weather conditions on Saturday looks to be in
the Upper Rio Grande Valley near Taos. Single digit RH looks to
continue on Sunday with above average temperatures, but overall
light winds should limit any critical fire weather conditions.
Storm chances return to eastern NM Monday and Tuesday, with the
first rendition of the Monsoon high forming over the area in the
middle of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 61 96 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 48 93 50 90 / 0 0 0 0
Cuba............................ 57 91 59 89 / 5 0 0 0
Gallup.......................... 54 91 52 89 / 5 0 0 0
El Morro........................ 56 88 55 86 / 10 0 0 0
Grants.......................... 57 92 57 91 / 5 0 0 0
Quemado......................... 55 88 54 90 / 20 0 0 0
Magdalena....................... 62 89 64 92 / 20 5 5 0
Datil........................... 58 86 58 88 / 20 0 0 0
Reserve......................... 49 93 49 92 / 20 0 0 0
Glenwood........................ 54 96 54 96 / 20 0 0 0
Chama........................... 48 86 49 84 / 0 0 0 0
Los Alamos...................... 62 88 65 89 / 5 30 5 0
Pecos........................... 53 89 56 89 / 20 20 5 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 55 86 57 86 / 10 10 5 0
Red River....................... 46 78 47 77 / 10 20 10 0
Angel Fire...................... 44 81 45 81 / 10 30 10 0
Taos............................ 53 89 54 89 / 5 10 5 0
Mora............................ 52 85 53 87 / 10 40 10 10
Espanola........................ 59 95 62 96 / 5 20 10 0
Santa Fe........................ 60 90 64 89 / 10 5 5 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 57 93 61 93 / 10 5 5 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 67 96 72 96 / 10 0 5 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 64 98 68 97 / 10 0 5 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 64 100 68 100 / 10 0 5 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 66 97 70 97 / 10 0 5 0
Belen........................... 62 99 66 100 / 10 0 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 65 99 69 98 / 10 0 5 0
Bosque Farms.................... 61 98 65 99 / 10 0 5 0
Corrales........................ 65 99 69 98 / 10 0 5 0
Los Lunas....................... 63 98 66 99 / 10 0 0 0
Placitas........................ 65 95 69 95 / 10 0 5 0
Rio Rancho...................... 65 98 69 97 / 10 0 5 0
Socorro......................... 67 100 71 102 / 20 5 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 59 91 64 91 / 20 0 5 0
Tijeras......................... 59 92 64 92 / 20 0 5 0
Edgewood........................ 56 93 61 93 / 20 5 5 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 94 58 94 / 20 10 10 0
Clines Corners.................. 54 89 57 89 / 20 20 20 0
Mountainair..................... 55 92 60 93 / 20 5 5 0
Gran Quivira.................... 56 91 61 92 / 20 10 5 0
Carrizozo....................... 62 93 66 95 / 20 10 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 57 84 60 87 / 20 50 5 5
Capulin......................... 49 83 52 88 / 20 30 10 10
Raton........................... 51 87 53 92 / 30 30 10 10
Springer........................ 53 87 55 93 / 30 30 10 20
Las Vegas....................... 54 86 56 90 / 10 40 10 0
Clayton......................... 55 85 60 93 / 5 10 10 5
Roy............................. 54 83 58 92 / 10 20 10 5
Conchas......................... 58 92 62 100 / 0 10 20 0
Santa Rosa...................... 57 89 61 96 / 5 30 20 5
Tucumcari....................... 59 91 64 99 / 5 5 20 0
Clovis.......................... 59 89 63 96 / 10 5 30 5
Portales........................ 59 90 63 97 / 10 5 20 5
Fort Sumner..................... 60 92 64 98 / 5 5 20 5
Roswell......................... 64 94 67 101 / 10 10 5 5
Picacho......................... 60 90 62 96 / 10 40 5 20
Elk............................. 57 88 59 94 / 10 60 5 20
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
SHORT TERM...77
LONG TERM....77
AVIATION...34
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 18, 3:48 PM MST, 2 hours 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
448 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NMZ212-214-182315-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains NM-Glorieta Mesa Including
Glorieta Pass NM-
448 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL SANTA FE AND
WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM MDT...
At 448 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Tererro, or 14 miles east of Santa Fe, and is stationary.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible. Hail may accumulate on roadways causing hazardous
travel.
Locations impacted include...
Tererro.
This includes State Road 63 between Mile Markers 7 and 21.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.
&&
LAT...LON 3562 10574 3567 10586 3581 10574 3572 10555
3558 10566
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 0DEG 0KT 3571 10570
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ShoemakeSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 4:23 PM MST, 1 hour 56 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
523 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NMZ219-221-190000-
Middle Rio Grande Valley including the Albuquerque Metro Area NM-
Sandia and Manzano Mountains including Edgewood NM-
523 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL VALENCIA AND WEST
CENTRAL TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 6 PM MDT...
At 523 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Tajique, or 21 miles east of Los Lunas, moving
southwest at 10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Manzano, Tajique, Manzano Mountain State Park and Torreon.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Heavy rains from severe thunderstorms can produce sudden and
dangerous flows in arroyos, ditches and over low water crossings. Do
not attempt to drive through areas where water covers the roadway.
&&
LAT...LON 3464 10650 3470 10660 3487 10641 3477 10622
3457 10639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 32DEG 10KT 3474 10640
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ShoemakeSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 4:41 PM MST, 1 hour 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
541 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NMZ218-190015-
Santa Fe Metro Area NM-
541 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL SANTA FE COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM MDT...
At 541 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Galisteo, or 15 miles south of Santa Fe, moving
southwest at 5 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Eldorado At Santa Fe, Galisteo, Los Cerrillos, Cerrillos Hills
State Park, Lamy and Madrid.
This includes Highway 285 between Mile Markers 282 and 288.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3558 10598 3550 10585 3549 10585 3548 10584
3529 10599 3545 10621
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 41DEG 5KT 3546 10600
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
ShoemakeSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 5:14 PM MST, 1 hour 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
614 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NMZ219-221-222-224-190045-
South Central Highlands NM-Sandia and Manzano Mountains including
Edgewood NM-Estancia Valley NM-Middle Rio Grande Valley including
the Albuquerque Metro Area NM-
614 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN VALENCIA...NORTH
CENTRAL SOCORRO AND SOUTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM
MDT...
At 614 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Manzano Mountain State Park, or 23 miles east of Belen, moving south
at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mountainair, Manzano Mountain State Park, Abo and Manzano.
This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 182 and 184...and
between Mile Markers 189 and 207.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibility below one quarter mile at times.
&&
LAT...LON 3447 10657 3466 10649 3468 10625 3442 10613
3441 10658 3443 10656 3446 10651 3446 10652
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 1DEG 12KT 3456 10639
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
MASpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 5:42 PM MST, 37 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
642 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NMZ218-221-222-190115-
Santa Fe Metro Area NM-Sandia and Manzano Mountains including
Edgewood NM-Estancia Valley NM-
642 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT BERNALILLO...SOUTHEASTERN
SANDOVAL AND SOUTHWESTERN SANTA FE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM MDT...
At 642 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Madrid, or 21 miles north of Moriarty, moving south at
10 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Golden and Cedar Grove.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
Blowing dust associated with strong thunderstorm winds can reduce
visibility below one quarter mile at times.
&&
LAT...LON 3528 10623 3538 10616 3537 10592 3517 10600
3520 10628
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 17DEG 9KT 3530 10611
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MASpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 6:14 PM MST, 5 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
714 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
NMZ224-190145-
South Central Highlands NM-
714 PM MDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN VALENCIA...NORTH
CENTRAL SOCORRO AND SOUTHWESTERN TORRANCE COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
MDT...
At 714 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Abo, or 30 miles southwest of Estancia, moving south at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Mountainair and Abo.
This includes Highway 60 between Mile Markers 189 and 203.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 3447 10647 3452 10625 3429 10612 3425 10644
TIME...MOT...LOC 0114Z 340DEG 11KT 3441 10632
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
MA