NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 17, 11:00 AM MST, 1 hour 30 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Feb 17, 11:00 AM MST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1100 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1047 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026
- Damaging west and southwest winds will continue along and east
of the central mountain chain today with hazardous crosswinds
and blowing dust as far west as the continental divide.
Hazardous southwest wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph will return to
much of northern and central New Mexico on Wednesday.
- Snow accumulation and blowing and snow will produce snowpacked
and icy roads, as well as snow drifts, in portions of the
mountains today, Wednesday, and Friday, and probably also at
lower elevation of north central and western New Mexico on
Friday.
- Critical fire weather conditions will increase the risk of rapid
fire spread across northeast and east central areas today, then
again on Wednesday as far west as the middle Rio Grande Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 132 AM MST Tue Feb 17
2026
Upper level troughs crossing the central and southern Rockies
today and Wednesday will bring rain and snow showers mainly to
locations along and west of the central mountain chain, and strong
west and southwest winds to most of northern and central New
Mexico.
The strongest wind speeds are forecast today as a strong speed
maximum in the polar jet stream crosses with 700 mb speeds from
40-60 KT, except up to 80 KT across east central areas.
Fortunately, the strongest winds aloft will shift east of New
Mexico by the time of peak heating and mixing this afternoon, but
locations along and east of the central mountain chain can still
expect wind gusts from 50 to 70 mph with the strongest gusts along
the east slopes of the central mountain chain. Gusts up to 50 mph
will also impact the central valley, northwest mountains, west
central highlands, and southwest mountains today. Meanwhile, 3-8
inches of snow are forecast in the Chuska, Tusas, and Sangre de
Cristo Mountains today, where blowing and drifting snow will make
travel dangerous. This will be a westerly upslope flow precip
event, with drying downslope flow east of the central mountain
chain. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast east of the
Sangre de Cristo Mountains, and across the east central plains,
from mid morning until early evening.
Periods of snow will continue tonight with only light
accumulation, then snow will increase in coverage and intensity
again over the northern mountains, Chuska Mountains, and west
central mountains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Additional
snow accumulation of up to 4 inches are forecast in these areas on
Wednesday, except for lighter amounts of only an inch or two in
the west central mountains, and heavier amounts around a half foot
in the Tusas Mountains. A gusty Pacific cold front will dive
through western areas on Wednesday evening, lowering temperatures
and bringing a roughly 50 percent chance of brief but impactful snow
squalls west of the Rio Grande.
Wind speeds at 700 mb will generally vary from 40-60 KT on
Wednesday, except up to 65 KT over the south central mountains.
Gusts up to 50 mph will probably be common again Wednesday, except
up to 45 mph on the far eastern plains and potentially around 60
mph from Ruidoso to Dunken. Humidities will be lower on Wednesday,
so critical fire weather conditions are forecast in all locations
east of the central mountain chain, as well as the middle Rio
Grande Valley (especially Socorro County).
High temperatures will vary from near to as much as 12 degrees
below 1991-2020 averages along and west of the central mountain
chain today and Wednesday, and up to 12 degrees above average
farther east.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 132 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026
Another disturbance looks to cross the southern Rockies on
Thursday, then a stronger trough Thursday night and Friday with
additional rain and snow accumulation. A Pacific cold front with
this system will cross Thursday night and Friday morning,
dropping the snow level to valley bottoms in most locations west
of the Rio Grande for much of the day on Friday, and probably in
the Rio Grande Valley as well by sunset. This system looks
vigorous enough to produce a few to several inches of snow in the
mountains, with a few inches in the upper Rio Grande Valley and
at lower elevations west of the continental divide. Further,
breezy to windy conditions are again forecast Thursday and Friday,
but gusts will probably peak in the 35-45 mph range in most
places, except locally stronger along and just east of the central
mountain chain.
Winds will weaken and the weather will dry out Saturday through
Monday as a ridge of high pressure crosses from the west. After
high temperatures bottom out near to around 12 degrees below
30-year averages on Saturday, readings will rebound reaching near
to as much as 13 degrees above average on Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1047 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026
Unsettled weather conditions will persist across northern and
central New Mexico with aviation hazards being focused on strong
to damaging winds, blowing dust, mountain snow in northern areas
of the state, and also obscurations of peaks. Wind gusts of 35 to
50 kt will be common across much of northern and central New
Mexico through sunset with the strongest gusts found in eastern
areas of the state. Areas of blowing dust will limit visibility,
especially over the east central plains where it may reduce as low
as 1 to 3 miles. Overall, rain and snow will decrease in coverage
through the afternoon and early evening with the northern
mountains seeing the most persistent snow with IFR (ceilings
below 1,000 ft) or LIFR conditions (ceilings below 500 ft). Winds
will reduce around sunset, but will increase again from the
southwest late Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 AM MST Tue Feb 17 2026
ERC percentiles from 50th to 95th across northeast and east
central areas make the very strong winds forecast today
concerning, despite minimum humidities from 14 to 25 percent,
especially given a couple of recent wild fires. Humidities will
fall around 5 to 12 percent across southern and eastern parts of
the fire weather forecast area on Wednesday, increasing the
coverage of critical fire weather conditions. A broader area of
wind gusts up to 50 mph is also expected on Wednesday. With this
forecast package have enough confidence in critical conditions to
upgrade to a Red Flag Warning over eastern areas on Wednesday. Will
keep the Fire Weather Watch in effect for the Middle Rio Grande
Valley on Wednesday given some uncertainty about how low
humidities will drop. At this time, the greatest confidence for
sub-15 percent humidities is in the lower Rio Grande Valley
Wednesday, including Socorro. At least locally critical fire
weather conditions look to return to northeast and east central
areas on Thursday. After spring-like vent rates for the remainder
of the work week, ventilation Saturday and Sunday with poor
ventilation mainly from the central mountain chain westward.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 49 32 46 21 / 80 20 80 40
Dulce........................... 45 24 42 11 / 90 70 90 70
Cuba............................ 45 23 45 18 / 80 10 50 70
Gallup.......................... 44 24 43 16 / 90 10 70 60
El Morro........................ 42 22 43 21 / 80 0 40 60
Grants.......................... 47 20 48 19 / 80 0 30 50
Quemado......................... 45 24 47 23 / 80 0 20 30
Magdalena....................... 51 29 52 30 / 30 0 0 10
Datil........................... 45 24 46 25 / 60 0 5 20
Reserve......................... 50 24 50 26 / 80 5 30 50
Glenwood........................ 54 26 55 30 / 80 0 20 50
Chama........................... 39 21 34 8 / 90 70 90 70
Los Alamos...................... 45 27 45 22 / 70 5 40 70
Pecos........................... 47 21 47 20 / 70 5 20 50
Cerro/Questa.................... 42 25 38 15 / 80 30 60 70
Red River....................... 33 22 32 13 / 80 30 70 70
Angel Fire...................... 41 20 36 9 / 70 30 50 70
Taos............................ 46 23 43 17 / 80 30 60 70
Mora............................ 47 22 46 17 / 60 5 30 50
Espanola........................ 53 24 52 22 / 70 10 40 60
Santa Fe........................ 47 25 49 24 / 70 5 30 60
Santa Fe Airport................ 50 24 53 22 / 60 5 20 50
Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 33 55 31 / 50 0 10 30
Albuquerque Heights............. 56 32 57 30 / 50 0 10 20
Albuquerque Valley.............. 58 25 59 24 / 50 0 5 20
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 56 29 57 29 / 50 0 10 30
Belen........................... 59 26 61 30 / 30 0 0 20
Bernalillo...................... 57 29 57 27 / 60 0 10 30
Bosque Farms.................... 58 24 60 26 / 40 0 5 20
Corrales........................ 58 28 58 27 / 60 0 10 30
Los Lunas....................... 58 25 59 28 / 40 0 5 20
Placitas........................ 51 31 54 29 / 60 0 10 40
Rio Rancho...................... 56 29 57 29 / 60 0 10 30
Socorro......................... 63 29 63 33 / 20 0 0 5
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 48 28 50 26 / 60 0 10 40
Tijeras......................... 49 29 51 28 / 60 0 10 40
Edgewood........................ 51 26 52 27 / 50 0 5 20
Moriarty/Estancia............... 53 20 54 24 / 40 0 0 20
Clines Corners.................. 49 24 49 23 / 30 0 0 20
Mountainair..................... 53 26 54 27 / 40 0 0 10
Gran Quivira.................... 54 25 55 27 / 30 0 0 10
Carrizozo....................... 56 31 58 33 / 30 0 0 5
Ruidoso......................... 50 30 51 31 / 20 0 0 5
Capulin......................... 54 24 51 20 / 0 0 0 0
Raton........................... 55 23 52 21 / 10 0 0 10
Springer........................ 57 24 55 22 / 10 0 0 10
Las Vegas....................... 51 23 51 22 / 30 0 5 20
Clayton......................... 64 31 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
Roy............................. 59 26 56 25 / 0 0 0 5
Conchas......................... 67 30 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 62 29 62 31 / 5 0 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 70 32 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
Clovis.......................... 69 32 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
Portales........................ 71 30 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 68 29 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
Roswell......................... 73 33 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
Picacho......................... 64 33 63 35 / 5 0 0 0
Elk............................. 61 31 61 34 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ212-215-
221>223-226>240.
Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MST this evening for NMZ104-123-126.
Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ104-123-
125-126.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ207-208-211-
216>220-224-225.
Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
evening for NMZ106.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ210-213-
214.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening for NMZ202.
&&
SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52