As a mid-level wave moved out of Nebraska toward southeast South Dakota during the overnight, convective clusters blossomed near and ahead of a frontal boundary with MUCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of up to 50 knots. Initial, more isolated storms produced hail across northeast Nebraska up to golf ball size, but quickly evolved into bowing segments with damaging wind gusts from 60…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FSD wrote it up.
As a mid-level wave moved out of Nebraska toward southeast South Dakota during the overnight, convective clusters blossomed near and ahead of a frontal boundary with MUCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of up to 50 knots. Initial, more isolated storms produced hail across northeast Nebraska up to golf ball size, but quickly evolved into bowing segments with damaging wind gusts from 60 to 80 mph across northwest Iowa and southwest Minnesota.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 29, 11:19 PM CST, 55 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms have begun this evening and will continue into the overnight hours. The more concerning threat will possibly come from about 11 pm through 4 am in and near northwest IA where wind gusts to 80 mph, hail to ping pong ball and locally heavy rain will be possible. - The heat headlines will continue into this evening. After today, the heat index for most of the area should remain below 100 degrees through the week. There may be a few times when heat headlines are needed with the better chances in northwest IA. Moderate to major heat risks are expected however through the week. - An active pattern this week leads to periodic threats for locally heavy rain and scattered severe storms. At this time the better chances appear to be Tuesday night and Thursday into Thursday night. && .UPDATE... Issued at 710 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 As of 7:00 pm CDT, storms have begun to fire along a cold front draped from Niobrara, Nebraska through Sioux Falls into eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota. Storms are expected to move northeast with the front through the next few hours, impacting eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota and Iowa. Storms have the potential to become severe and produce winds up to 80 mph, hail up to the size of ping-pong balls, and brief heavy downpours. Though the risk is low, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. This first round of storms looks to move out of the region by around 11 pm. A second round of storms are expected to form as a weak wave pushes northeast out of Nebraska after midnight. Threats will be very similar, very strong damaging wind gusts, large hail, heavy rain, and possibly a tornado. This second round is expected to have the largest impacts along and east of a line from Yankton, to Sioux Falls, to Marshall, Minnesota. This round should be clear of the area around or shortly after 7 am Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 108 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 Late this afternoon and Tonight: An unstable environment will be in place today as a weak front works into areas between about the James River and I-29 this afternoon. This may be a focus for isolated thunderstorms as a weak wave begins to move northeast from Nebraska ahead of the main wave to the west of the area. CAPE values sitting around 3000 J/kg with the 0-3km and 0-6km shear values sitting about 30-40 knots. The questions for the late afternoon and early evening activity will be getting enough convergence to overcome the capping inversion. However, given these parameters and a quick look at the model soundings showing a decent amount of dry air below about 600mb, wind and heavy rain will be the main threats. Wind gusts to 80 mph and locally heavy rain will be the main threats. Hail to half dollar will be a threat as well. Current thoughts are that there will likely be two areas of convection to watch for. The first will be from roughly 6 pm to 9 pm along the surface front and more driven by day time heating. This will likely be near I-29 and is a bit lower confidence given a strong capping inversion and weak low level convergence. The next, increasingly more likely threat will be tied to a weak wave moving out of Nebraska and an increasing LLJ. The better chances for this will be from about 11 pm to 4 am and this is also when the threat for the highest winds is expected. Tuesday into Wednesday: Tuesday should prove to be a fairly nice, albeit very warm, summer day with lighter winds and dew points back into the 50s and 60s and highs from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Currently do not anticipate any heat headlines but parts of northwest Iowa do get close to a 100 heat index so there will be some potential at least. Model output continues to point to Tuesday night into Wednesday as a period with a good chance for showers and thunderstorms. A wave will rotate northeast through Nebraska and bring a strong increase in the LLJ into southern SD by about 6z and northwest IA and southwest MN shortly after. Given the shear profile and expected instability around 2500 J/kg, a few severe storms will be possible. The low level remain fairly dry so given the amount of instability we may see some potential for 75 to 80 mph winds as well as pin pong ball sized hail. Wednesday afternoon and evening may see some scattered showers and storms with the better chances in northwest IA as a front lingers after the likely morning showers and storms. With the threat for clouds and a post outflow air mass, heat headlines are again not expected. Thursday into the weekend: The next good chance for showers and thunderstorms moves in Thursday into Thursday night as another well agreed upon wave moves through. Will likely continue the threat for locally heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms depending upon where any outflow boundaries end up. Friday into the weekend continues the trends of near daily waves as the upper level flow transitions to a bit more westerly direction. This hints at a chance for showers and storms Friday and Saturday with a potential break by Sunday into Monday as a weak ridge aloft builds in. For now this time frame is pretty low confidence given all of the activity tonight through Thursday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1219 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026 An earlier line of storms over NW IA/SW MN late this evening will be followed by another round of thunderstorms lifting from the southwest overnight, impacting SUX 6-9Z and FSD 7-10Z. Confidence is currently low that storms will extend as far northwest as HON. High pressure builds over the region behind the storms Wednesday resulting in light and variable winds. Outside of thunderstorms, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && UPDATE...AJP DISCUSSION...08 AVIATION...NWS ILX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 717 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097- 098-NEZ013-014-SDZ040-056-062-066-067-069>071-010030- Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee- Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson- Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Brookings-Moody-Minnehaha-Turner-Yankton- Union- 717 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Iowa, west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska, east central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this evening. The primary threats with the strongest storms will be hail up to ping-pong ball size, damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph, and brief heavy downpours. Though the risk is low, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Storms may continue into the early morning hours of Tuesday. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Isolated severe storms are possible again Tuesday night, and perhaps again on Wednesday, but confidence in any details is low at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. SDZ038-039-050-052>055-057>061-063>065-068-010030- Beadle-Kingsbury-Gregory-Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Brule-Aurora- Davison-Hanson-McCook-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Bon Homme- 717 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central South Dakota and southeast South Dakota. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Isolated severe storms are possible again Tuesday night, and perhaps again on Wednesday, but confidence in any details is low at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1027 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1009 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WSW Slayton 43.98N 95.78W
06/29/2026 M55 MPH Murray MN AWOS
AWOS station KDVP Slayton Municipal Airport.
&&Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1030 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0945 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSW Sioux Center 43.04N 96.20W
06/29/2026 M52 MPH Sioux IA Public
Via personal weather station.
&&
akPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1031 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0946 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Sioux Center 43.05N 96.14W
06/29/2026 M52 MPH Sioux IA Public
Via personal weather station.
&&
akPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1035 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0945 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Sioux Center 43.08N 96.17W
06/29/2026 Sioux IA Emergency Mngr
Several large tree branches down across town
ranging from 5 inches in diameter to as
large as 13 inches in diameter.
&&
akPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1037 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0938 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NE Adrian 43.68N 95.89W
06/29/2026 M55 MPH Nobles MN Public
Via personal weather station. Time
estimated.
&&
akPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1038 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1025 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 3 W Dovray 44.06N 95.60W
06/29/2026 M51 MPH Murray MN Mesonet
Mesonet station MN038 T.h.30 - Dovray - Mp
49.
&&
akThe Omaha radar (KOAX), 115 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 06:16 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A couple stones were as large as a golf ball, but most hail was from dime to quarter size.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, June 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1351200.