Wildfire in Montana, March 8 to 9, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
503 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Strong to very strong winds are expected today, with the
   strongest winds primarily along the Rocky Mountain Front out to
   the I-15 corridor.

 - Numerous rounds of precipitation are likely through the week,
   especially across the mountains

 - Yet another round of widespread strong winds looks likely on
   Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 1240 AM MST Sun Mar 8 2026/

 - Meteorological Overview:

An active week is expected across the Northern Rockies as moist and
fast quasi-zonal flow remains in place, with numerous rounds of
precipitation, seesawing temperatures, and potentially several
additional high wind events (i.e. Wednesday thru Saturday); however,
given the impactful weather within the first 24-36 hours of the
forecast period we will devote the rest of this section to
discussing this period in more detail.

Forecast period (i.e Sunday morning through Monday) begins with a
potent H500 jet max (in excess of 100kts) nosing south and east from
the Gulf of Alaska towards the western seaboard of the Pacific
Northwest and Canada. H500 heights will continue to fall across all
the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Southwest Canada as
this longwave trough rapidly digs to the southeast, with height
falls of ~60 to 120 meters overspreading much of North Central thru
Southwest Montana from 12z Sunday through 18z Monday. Increasing
cross barrier flow will not only help to advect an abundance of
Pacific moisture eastward and over the Northern Rockies through this
period, but will also bring a prolonged period of strong and gusty
surface winds to areas north of the I-90 corridor.

Precipitation will initially be confined to the Continental Divide
north of the US Hwy 12 corridor through the early morning hours due
to strong downsloping in lee of the Divide; however, a cold front
diving south from Alberta and Saskatchewan during the mid- to late
afternoon hours combined with Pacific moisture overrunning the
aforementioned front will help to support a southward advancing band
of moderate, to at times heavy, rain/snow over the adjacent plains.
This cold front will also help to end the strong to very strong
westerly winds over the plains of Central and North Central Montana;
however, prior to its arrival a long duration of high sustained
and/or gusts will impact most communities. Strong, potentially high,
winds look to return to portions of Central Montana from the late
morning through afternoon hours on Monday as surface winds veer back
to the southwest and become unidirectional with the mid-level flow. -
Moldan

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

High Winds through this afternoon/evening...

Confidence remains high that an impactful and damaging wind event
will occur along and north of the I-90 corridor through today. H700
winds per NAEFS analysis continue to run 3 to nearly 4 standard
deviations above normal at around 50-80kts north of the aforementioned
line, with the strongest core of winds being orientated along and
west of the I-15 corridor north of Cascade. While strong winds
typically occur from the late fall through spring across these areas
the overall magnitude of the winds with this particular event are
only observed every 5-10 years. NBM probabilities with respect to
wind gusts exceeding 60 mph are in excess of a 60% chance north of
the I-90 for most locations, with the probability for exceeding 80
mph ranging between a 60-90% chance along the Rocky Mountain Front.
Even more impressive there is a 10-30% chance that winds exceed 100
mph along the immediate eastern slopes from Gibson Reservoir to the
Hudson Bay Divide. While confidence remains high that strong winds
will occur during the day today there remains some uncertainty with
the overall duration of the winds for areas east of Shelby and north
of the US Hwy 2 corridor where the cold front will advance through
first. Here latest guidance supports a shorter, 3-6 hour window for
high winds as compared to areas south and west that will see high
winds for some 6-18 hours. This shorter window for high winds will
likely require the current High Wind Warnings to be cancelled sooner
than the current midnight expiration.

Accumulating Snow from this evening through Monday morning...

Confidence is increasing that a band of moderate to heavy snow will
advance south from the late afternoon/early evening hours through
Monday morning over the plains of Central and North Central Montana,
with the highest snowfall amounts of 1-4" occurring along the US Hwy
2 corridor from Marias Pass through Fort Belknap. Given warm
antecedent conditions the current thought is that this accumulating
snow can be addressed with a Special Weather Statement since warm
ground temperatures will lead to mainly slushy accumulations on
roadways.

High Winds on Monday...

Lingering strong, zonal flow combined with diurnal mixing may help
to support another rounds of strong winds along the Rocky Mountain
Front and across the US Hwy 200/US Hwy 87 corridor from the late
morning through afternoon hours. NBM probabilities for wind gusts
exceeding 60 mph across these areas range from a 45-90% chance. -
Moldan

Thursday winds...

Models are in unusually good agreement that yet
another (and possibly stronger) upper level jet streak affecting the
area on Thursday. While I hesitate to start “sounding the alarm” on
an event before a separate event has even started, I will note that
current model guidance for the Thursday event is concerning for a
few reasons. First is that models are quite consistent in their
handling of this event, though I will admit that this may be
limiting my view of the possibilities of how this event will unfold.
However, the solutions that are presented both show 700 mb winds of
60-90kts (70-100 mph), and 500 mb winds in the 90-110kt range (100-
130 mph), which would make this event stronger than the one
tomorrow, with the core of these winds primed to affect mainly
Central and Southwestern Montana. At this point, it is a bit
difficult to say just how efficiently these winds would mix to the
surface. I will, however, note that some indices are eerily
reminiscent of what we were seeing at similar lead times to a very
impactful event earlier this season. While the wind event tomorrow
will remain our focus for the next 24 to 36 hours, we will be
keeping a very watchful eye on the forecast for Thursday as well.
Ludwig

&&

.AVIATION...
08/12Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail through 08/21z to 09/00z when
thereafter a southward advancing cold front will bring lowering
CIGS and reduced VIS due to rain/snow from north to south. Prior
to the cold front strong to very strong surface winds will be
experienced across the KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, and KHLN terminals
where wind gusts of between 50-70kts are expected. Mountain wave
turbulence and low level wind shear will be a concern through
much of the next 18-24 hours. - Moldan

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Strong winds today will result in increased fire danger across
the plains of North Central Montana, even with RH values in the
20-30 percent range. Winds are expected to continue to be gusty
through the early afternoon, but a cold front coming in from the
north will bring both a wind shift to the north and a rapid
decrease in wind speeds. Ludwig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  62  29  45  22 /  10  80  20   0
CTB  53  17  37  13 /  60  90  20  10
HLN  61  33  45  21 /  10  60  50  10
BZN  62  33  47  19 /  10  20  50  40
WYS  43  30  45  16 /  20  20  40  40
DLN  60  38  54  21 /   0  10  10  10
HVR  59  20  42  16 /  60  80  30  10
LWT  60  27  40  19 /  10  70  80  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Bears Paw
Mountains and Southern Blaine-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle
Mountains-Canyon Ferry Area-Cascade County below 5000ft-East
Glacier Park Region-Eastern Glacier, Western Toole, and Central
Pondera-Eastern Pondera and Eastern Teton-Eastern Toole and
Liberty-Elkhorn and Boulder Mountains-Fergus County below 4500ft-
Gates of the Mountains-Helena Valley-Hill County-Judith Basin
County and Judith Gap-Little Belt and Highwood Mountains-Meagher
County Valleys-Missouri Headwaters-Northern Blaine County-
Northern High Plains-Snowy and Judith Mountains-Southern High
Plains-Southern Rocky Mountain Front-Upper Blackfoot and
MacDonald Pass-Western and Central Chouteau County.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1009 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 ESE Floweree          47.68N 110.90W
03/08/2026  M60 MPH          Chouteau           MT   Mesonet

            Montana mesonet station Highwood Bench.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1010 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 14 E The Knees          48.02N 110.99W
03/08/2026  M58 MPH          Chouteau           MT   Mesonet

            Montana mesonet station Carter N.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1013 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0955 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 NW Belt               47.43N 111.02W
03/08/2026  M60 MPH          Cascade            MT   Mesonet

            Montana mesonet station Belt NW.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1018 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1017 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 WSW Great Falls       47.46N 111.39W
03/08/2026  M59 MPH          Cascade            MT   Official NWS Obs

            RSOIS observations at NWS Great Falls.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1022 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 13 N Chester            48.70N 110.98W
03/08/2026  M66 MPH          Liberty            MT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station DW4776 Chester.

&&

AM

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1023 AM MDT Sun Mar 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 16 NNE Rudyard          48.79N 110.48W
03/08/2026  M59 MPH          Hill               MT   Mesonet

            Mesonet station FW1664 Hingham.

&&

AM