Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Missouri, April 26 to 27, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing chances for severe thunderstorms as early as late
  afternoon but more likely this evening through the overnight
  hours. Several rounds/clusters of thunderstorms are possible.
  Thunderstorms hazards include potential for hail up to lime
  size (2 in diameter), damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and
  tornadoes. Highest severe potential is along and north of
  Interstate 44 however uncertainty remains with storm mode.

- Severe thunderstorm redevelopment likely Monday afternoon and
  evening for locations east of Highway 65, with a greater
  Enhanced (3 of 5) Risk east of Highway 63. Large hail to the
  size of baseballs, damaging winds to 70 mph, and tornadoes
  are all possible.

- Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday
  afternoon in far south-central Missouri. Large hail is the
  main hazard.

- Localized flooding may occur with any training storms this
  weekend into Tuesday. A corridor of slightly higher flooding
  potential could develop along and north of Highway 54 tonight
  into Monday.

- Mostly dry with cooler than average temperatures Wednesday
  and onward.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview: Water vapor and upper
air analysis shows a weak shortwave moving through northern
Kansas with stronger energy seen moving through Colorado and New
Mexico. The synoptic pattern remains very complex with a nearly
stationary north to south front across central Kansas. The warm
front with significantly higher surface dews/instability was
beginning to lift north through southern Oklahoma. The 12z KSGF
sounding, meso trends and satellite data still supports a capped
airmass across southwest Missouri with limited low level cloud
cover. In response, temps have warmed into the middle and upper 70s.
As of early afternoon, storms have formed across central Kansas
and were likely elevated in nature mostly, however the southern
end is becoming more surface based.

Thunderstorm Potential This evening - Overnight/Monday Morning:
A messy and complicated forecast exists with the potential for
multiple clusters/rounds of storms. There seems to a growing
trend that as stronger lift moves east this afternoon, storms
across central Kansas will continue to move east and expand in
coverage and intensity. These storms could clip locations along
and north of Highway 54 by late afternoon and evening. Large
hail to 2 inches in diameter is the most likely hazard given the
elevated nature. If they become more surface based then the
damaging wind threat would increase.

The other focus area to watch this evening will be across
southern Kansas into Oklahoma, especially near the triple point
as that warm front will continue to lift north. The low level
jet will continue to increase this evening into the overnight
hours and should force the development of supercells. CAMS
suggest that these could congeal into clusters and move
northeast into southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri through
the overnight hours. Instability and wind shear will actually
increase further through the overnight (especially elevated
CAPE), therefore large hail to 2 inches in diameter and damaging
wind gusts to 70mph will be the most likely hazards. The
tornado threat remains uncertain. Any supercells that can remain
close to that warm front (which will be moving towards the
area) will have the potential for a tornado, with locations
across southeast Kansas and western Missouri in a conditional
intensity 1 category for strong tornadoes, if a tornado where to
form. Forecast STP (significant tornado parameter) values
across the west look to get to 1-3, therefore we will need to
monitor the environment closely tonight.

With lift continuing overnight and the mean flow out of the
west/southwest, we could see multiple rounds of thunderstorms,
especially along and north of Interstate 44. The further south
of I-44 it remains uncertain how much we will see. If the warm
front is slower to move in then storms could move in further
south than forecast. This will likely be an evolving situation
with additional updates likely through this evening.

Flooding Potential: Some of the more recent CAMS suggest a
corridor of training thunderstorms along and north of Highway
54. Confidence is low on how this will evolve however if this
does occur, a corridor of 2-3 inches of rainfall could occur
which would cause flooding. Will continue to monitor this
potential this afternoon and any potential need for any short
fuse Flood Watches.

Thunderstorm Potential Monday Afternoon/Evening: Thunderstorm
clusters may be ongoing Monday morning, especially north of
I-44. This creates a complicated thermodynamic environment for
afternoon/evening storm redevelopment. There is enough
consensus in 12z HREF data to support thunderstorm redevelopment
as the strong lift moves into Missouri, however it should be
noted that most of the strongest lift will be north of the area.
Forecast soundings for Springfield and points east for the
afternoon hours support a very unstable and highly sheared
airmass. Strong southerly winds with gusts to 35mph will pump in
surface dews in the 60s with high temps in the 80s. Mean SB
CAPEs may reach 3000j/kg with 0-6km shear of 50-60kts. Forecast
large hail parameters from the RAP suggest values as high as 20
which would allow for hail larger than baseballs. The low level
flow helicity not be particularly strong in the afternoon with
the surface winds out of the southwest however it does increase
in the evening. Therefore the tornado threat should increase as
storms move east, especially east of Highway 63 where strong
tornadoes are possible if storms don't congeal and SRH is high
enough.

There remains uncertainty how early and how far west storms
redevelop. Most guidance does not show storms along or west of
I-49 however most seem to want to develop them near the Highway
65 corridor (in the 3-6pm window) and then really increase the
strength as they go east. This will be a rapidly evolving
situation across the eastern half of the area with additional
updates likely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 130 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Additional Storm Potential Tuesday: There is a continued trend
that highlights the front lifting north Tuesday, back into
southern Missouri. Additional energy will move into the area and
could force another round of thunderstorms. Most of the storms
may remain elevated north of the front with large hail the main
concern. However if the front lifts any farther north (closer to
I-44), then we will need to monitor for additional hazards as
storms could try to become more surface based.

Pattern Change Mid/Late Week:  A split flow pattern then develops
for mid to late week with northwest flow aloft over the area and
a cut off low south of California. While confidence in rain
chances in this pattern is low, confidence is high that
temperatures will drop back to or perhaps below average with
highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail through the
afternoon and evening. Confidence is much lower with the
thunderstorm potential this afternoon through tonight. Have
tried to keep the prob30s limited to tonight/overnight when the
thunderstorm chances are higher at JLN and SGF. However if
storms develop earlier, then we made need amendments. Winds will
remain southeasterly with a gradual shift to the south tonight
into Monday. Wind gusts on Monday will increase to around
25-30kts. Low level wind shear is likely at the sites overnight
into Monday.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
217 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-271930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
217 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Slight tornado risk.
  Enhanced hail risk.
  Enhanced thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Limited excessive rainfall risk

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorm potential will increase late this afternoon and
evening, especially along and north of Highway 54. Large hail up
to 2 in in diameter and damaging winds up to 70mph are the most
likely hazards with this activity.

Other storms look to form later in the evening and overnight hours
across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. These storms will
also move into the area, mainly along and north of Interstate 44.
Large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, damaging winds to 70mph and
a few tornadoes will be possible. Several clusters of storms could
move through the area overnight.

If storms do move over the same areas, localized flash flooding
could occur. Currently the highest potential for this is along and
north of Highway 54.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are likely Monday. All
modes of severe storms will be possible on Monday. There is the
potential for significant severe weather hazards along and east of
Highway 63 Monday afternoon and evening.

Wind gusts will also increase to 30-35 mph Monday.

A lingering Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for severe storms exists
across portions of south-central Missouri Tuesday afternoon and
evening. The main hazard with these storms is large hail.

Any slow-moving or training storms could result in a localized
flooding risk.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation will likely be needed later today and tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Springfield MO
434 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     Hail             Fort Scott              37.84N 94.71W
04/26/2026  E1.00 Inch       Bourbon            KS   Public

            Social media picture of quarter size hail in
            Fort Scott, Kansas.

&&

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