April 2026 presented a stark climate duality for the state of Missouri. While a series of heavy spring rainstorms made it one of the wettest Aprils on record for the state's midsection and northern regions frequently delaying fieldwork for those farmers the Missouri Bootheel completely missed out.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
April 2026 presented a stark climate duality for the state of Missouri. While a series of heavy spring rainstorms made it one of the wettest Aprils on record for the state's midsection and northern regions frequently delaying fieldwork for those farmers the Missouri Bootheel completely missed out. This southeast corner of the state remained stubbornly locked in a highly regionalized, long-term moisture deficit that originally took hold during the summer of 2025. D2 conditions worsened to D3 by mid April.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 31, 5:35 PM CST, 6 hours 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 635 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 - A Wind Advisory is currently in effect for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Sustained winds of 25 mph and gusts of at least 40 mph are expected through this evening. - A significant warming trend will bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal this week, with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s through at least Thursday. - Showers and thunderstorms will return to the forecast by Wednesday, with a 50% to 80% chance of rainfall starting on Thursday through this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Monday) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Mild conditions continue today in the midst of a warming pattern with highs reaching into the low to mid 80s. Surface southerlies will be somewhat strong today owing to a tightening pressure gradient across the region, especially in the Mississippi River Delta where wind gusts are expected to exceed 30 mph through this afternoon. HREF/NBM seem to have had unrealistically low probabilities of us meeting our Wind Advisory thresholds today, but multiple sites in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel have already reached our criteria. NQA/PAH VADs from this morning displayed 1-2 km winds well in excess of 40 mph. With plenty of sunshine in northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel, these winds are expected to mix to the surface. Therefore, we have issued a Wind Advisory through this 6 p.m. CDT this evening for portions of northeast Arkansas and the Bootheel. Moisture is also increasing as higher dew points are pulled north off the Gulf. By early this afternoon, uncapped MLCAPE values are expected to reach anywhere from 750 - 1000 J/kg across northern Mississippi. Isolated, convective showers are possible within this region with a low (20%) chance of thunder that should dissipate by sunset. The broader zonal flow over the CONUS will continue through Wednesday along with southerly surface winds and high temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s. An extension of the subtropical jet stream will enter the plains and amplify into shortwave trough into early Thursday, traveling northeast into the Midwest. Much of the core flow associated with this system will remain north of the Mid-South, but enough upper lift will overspread the region to produce isolated/scattered rain showers through Thursday afternoon. A second trough, originating from the polar westerlies off the west coast, will swing in behind Thursday's trough. Similar to the first one, much of the better dynamics will remain well north of the Mid-South with the main driver of rainfall being a frontal passage. Since the front will sweep through the region in a matter of hours and no upper support for much rain ahead of the boundary, QPF values may be on the lighter side. Recent model trends support this as QPF amounts have steadily decreased in the last several forecast cycles, down to 1" - 1.75" from 2" - 3" just a couple days ago. So, at this time anywhere from 1" - 1.5" seems reasonable, but this forecast may change more in future forecast cycles. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible along the front, but severe weather is not expected at this time due to a lack of both instability and shear. Confidence has increased that the front will clear the region by Sunday morning, with cooler and drier weather behind. Temperatures on Sunday will only climb into the 50s and low 60s with Monday's morning lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Into next week, ensembles are in agreement that the region will be juxtaposed within a split stream pattern with northwesterly upper flow to our north, and zonal, subtropical flow to our south. This will effectively stagnate the surface pattern with high pressure expected to remain into early next week, keeping the dry, cool conditions through the end of the period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 MVFR ceilings will develop over north Mississippi tonight, mainly impacting TUP. There is a less than 30% chance of the MVFR CIGs reaching MEM, so kept all other terminals VFR. A few showers can't be ruled out tomorrow across the Mid-South. However, coverage will be too little to warrant TAF mention. Otherwise, expect winds to increase after sunrise with gusts approaching 25 kts in the afternoon. ANS && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Minimal fire danger concerns are expected for the foreseeable future, as minimum relative humidity values are forecast to remain above 35%. Elevated 20ft winds are expected today across northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel with winds approaching 25 - 30 mph. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1"-1.5" are expected starting Wednesday, and are to last through Saturday, providing some relief to our ongoing drought conditions. && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB AVIATION...ANS
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1038 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0653 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 2 ESE Water Valley 34.14N 89.60W
03/31/2026 Yalobusha MS Public
Reported large tree on home in the Water
Valley area. Exact time and location
estimated on radar.
&&
AEHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D2 conditions worsened to D3 mid month and persisted for the rest of April.
D2 conditions worsened to D3 mid month and persisted for the rest of April.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, April 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1334223, 1334224.