What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 18, 6:13 AM CST, 1 hour earlier. Its key messages:
- Significant flash flooding threat continues with conditions worsening this morning into the afternoon.
- Rainfall will continue on Friday. Flooding impacts may linger. Rainfall does not end quickly, but rather gradually tapers over the course of several days.
- Isolated severe storms are possible over the area today and again on Friday.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 18, 6:13 AM CST, 1 hour before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
713 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Significant flash flooding threat continues with conditions
worsening this morning into the afternoon.
- Rainfall will continue on Friday. Flooding impacts may linger.
Rainfall does not end quickly, but rather gradually tapers over
the course of several days.
- Isolated severe storms are possible over the area today and
again on Friday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1211 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Today...
The remnant tropical low feature is expected to bring a significant
flash flood threat to southeastern portions of the area today as
soil moisture remains high and antecedent rainfall has made this
area vulnerable. As much as 4-7 inches of rain could fall, locally
higher upwards of 10-12 inches in some guidance amid the tropical
airmass, support of efficient rainfall rates. 00z regional soundings
show a 2.1 to 2.2 inch PWAT airmass, which is similar to Tuesday.
Considering this, we know that 8 inch amounts were observed or
estimated, so it is likely this airmass would still be capable of
those amounts. Further, probabilities for 8 inches have increased to
20% in spots on CAM guidance.
Additionally, there will be a marginal severe threat with this
system, primarily for damaging wind gusts and brief, weak tornadoes.
Tropical remnants can enhance low level shear, and back surface
winds. Considering this along with a very moist BL, brief tornadoes
are possible, particularly this morning associated with core
convection.
Rainfall does continue even after the remnant low passes with a
trailing boundary. Placement of this potential is still uncertain,
however a lot CAM guidance has shifted this south, perhaps even
south of our area (Wilkinson, Amite, Pike, Walthall). But, should
this materialize, it would exacerbate flood risk and any ongoing
flooding as any additional rainfall would push things over the
edge. Furthermore, this would be a training convection scenario
that could add to totals. It is possible that convection
reinvigorates along this boundary Friday, but again, it is
uncertain.
Through mid next week...
The boundary begins to make headway into the area by the weekend and
likely washes out this weekend. Airmass modification is likely slim,
but PWAT, while still supportive of additional rainfall, will be
more seasonal (1.5-1.7). This should provide some "break" from the
onslaught of moisture, with coverage overall more scattered this
weekend. Additional rainfall amounts this weekend generally look to
be in the 1 to 2 inch range. Southwesterly flow will continue to
reinforce rain chances through the remainder of the period, but
increased westerly/northwesterly flow by the middle next week may
mean that relief from heavy rainfall may be on the way.
Towards the end of the period, there is potential to transition
towards a NW flow regime as a ridge strengthens over the SW CONUS.
Right now in the guidance it looks like there is potential for a
stalled boundary to be in place, while multiple shortwaves ride the
ridge. All the while, low level flow will likely remain
southwesterly as we remain under the western flank of the low level
ridge. This could set up the area for rounds of severe weather,
likely MCS scenario. Of course, more details will be provided as
they become available. /SAS/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 713 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
Lowering ceilings and increasing chances for RA will continue as
the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur move across the forecast
area. Areas of rain will be accompanied by reduced visibility and
potentially gusty winds. Some improvements in ceilings and/or
visibility is likely after 18/22-23Z, with decreased rain coverage
into the evening hours. Additional lowered ceilings and/or
visibility will develop again overnight, with increased rain
chances as well through the end of the TAF period. /NF/DC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 84 74 87 73 / 100 60 80 70
Meridian 81 73 86 72 / 100 80 80 50
Vicksburg 86 75 88 74 / 90 60 80 70
Hattiesburg 83 76 90 75 / 100 70 60 60
Natchez 86 76 91 75 / 90 40 50 60
Greenville 88 74 87 73 / 60 70 80 60
Greenwood 85 74 88 73 / 80 80 70 50
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MSZ040>066-072>074.
LA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ009-015-016-023>026.
AR...None.
&&
SAS20/NF/DC
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 18, 2:11 AM CST, 5 hours 2 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
311 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
MSZ051-052-057-058-180915-
Lauderdale MS-Newton MS-Clarke MS-Jasper MS-
311 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT JASPER...NEWTON...NORTHWESTERN
CLARKE AND WESTERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 AM CDT...
At 311 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Turnerville, or near Bay Springs, moving north at
45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Louin and Montrose around 315 AM CDT.
Garlandville and Roberts around 320 AM CDT.
Newton around 325 AM CDT.
Lawrence around 330 AM CDT.
Hickory around 335 AM CDT.
Decatur around 340 AM CDT.
Stratton around 345 AM CDT.
Union and Little Rock around 350 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3195 8878 3198 8932 3258 8932 3258 8869
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 195DEG 37KT 3204 8920
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SASSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 2:57 AM CST, 4 hours 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
357 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
MSZ045-181000-
Neshoba MS-
357 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NESHOBA COUNTY THROUGH 500 AM
CDT...
At 357 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Neshoba, or near Union, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Philadelphia, Tucker, Dixon, Bethsaida, and Neshoba around 405 AM
CDT.
Burnside around 420 AM CDT.
Stallo around 435 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3258 8904 3258 8926 3293 8919 3293 8897
3292 8896 3292 8893 3293 8893 3293 8892
3290 8891
TIME...MOT...LOC 0857Z 203DEG 23KT 3260 8917
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SASSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 2:58 AM CST, 4 hours 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
358 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
MSZ038-039-181015-
Winston MS-Noxubee MS-
358 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NOXUBEE AND WINSTON
COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM CDT...
At 358 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Stallo, or 11 miles northeast of Philadelphia, moving northeast at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Noxapater and Nanih Waiya around 405 AM CDT.
Louisville around 410 AM CDT.
Millcreek around 420 AM CDT.
Betheden around 430 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3293 8890 3292 8893 3294 8916 3329 8909
3329 8864
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 203DEG 23KT 3293 8903
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SASSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 4:28 AM CST, 2 hours 45 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
528 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
MSZ042-043-047-048-181145-
Warren MS-Hinds MS-Yazoo MS-Madison MS-
528 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL WARREN...YAZOO...
NORTHWESTERN HINDS AND WESTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 645 AM CDT...
At 528 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms over Flora, or 12 miles west of Gluckstadt, moving
northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Bentonia and Annandale around 535 AM CDT.
Myrleville around 540 AM CDT.
Benton around 605 AM CDT.
Vaughan and Way around 615 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3288 8997 3286 8989 3245 9020 3241 9064
3292 9051 3295 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 1028Z 210DEG 20KT 3255 9032
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SASSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 4:59 AM CST, 2 hours 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
559 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
MSZ049-050-055-056-181215-
Scott MS-Smith MS-Rankin MS-Simpson MS-
559 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN RANKIN...SIMPSON...
NORTHWESTERN SMITH AND SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES THROUGH 715 AM CDT...
At 559 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Martinville, or near Mendenhall, moving northeast
at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Puckett, White Oak, and Martinville around 605 AM CDT.
Polkville and Burns around 625 AM CDT.
Pulaski and Homewood around 640 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3176 9011 3232 8991 3234 8932 3225 8932
3178 8963
TIME...MOT...LOC 1059Z 215DEG 23KT 3195 8980
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SASSpecial weather statement, Jun 18, 5:42 AM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
642 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
MSZ035-036-042-043-181300-
Humphreys MS-Yazoo MS-Madison MS-Holmes MS-
642 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN HOLMES...YAZOO...
SOUTHEASTERN HUMPHREYS AND WEST CENTRAL MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 800
AM CDT...
At 642 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Yazoo City, moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Yazoo City around 645 AM CDT.
Eden around 650 AM CDT.
Thornton around 705 AM CDT.
Tolarville and Coxburg around 715 AM CDT.
Tchula around 735 AM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3256 9026 3258 9053 3320 9055 3318 8994
TIME...MOT...LOC 1142Z 185DEG 18KT 3284 9037
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SASNOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1356112, 1354568, 1354577, 1354578, 1354585, 1354644, 1354589, 1354650, 1354562, 1354631, 1356113.