What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Twin Cities, MN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 2:03 AM CST, 0 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Thunderstorms capable;le of damaging wind gusts are expected this morning, especially across southern Minnesota.
- Hot & humid again today with the highest heat index values of 95-100 F across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.
- Thunderstorms likely tomorrow morning.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 2:03 AM CST, 0 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
303 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms capable;le of damaging wind gusts are expected
this morning, especially across southern Minnesota.
- Hot & humid again today with the highest heat index values of
95-100 F across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin.
- Thunderstorms likely tomorrow morning.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Main weather concern this morning will be a thunderstorm
complex producing damaging wind gusts over 50-60 mph moving
northeastwards out nor northwest Iowa. A primed environment for
severe weather lies ahead of this thunderstorm complex so it
show no signs of slowing down as it moves through southern
Minnesota & into the Twin Cities metro & western Wisconsin early
this morning. The greatest chance for damaging wind gusts over
50-60 mph will be across southern Minnesota, while it remains
uncertain just how far north & east that threat may continue.
Regardless, gusty winds of at least 30-40 mph are likely with
any of the thunderstorms this morning in additional to brief
heavy downpours The thunderstorm complex is moving
northeastwards at over 50 mph, meaning it'll reach the I-90
corridor through 3-4 AM, the Twin Cities & I-35 by 5-6 AM, &
into western WI through 6-8 AM.
The morning thunderstorms will be decaying & out of our area by
8-9 AM, & then the question will be how quickly we clear out
through the morning & into the afternoon. High-resolutiion
models that are handling the ongoing thunderstorm complex still
warm temperatures into the low 90s across eastern Minnesota &
western Wisconsin meaning our Heat Advisory continues to look on
track. Another trend to watch will be how much convection is
able to bubble up in western Wisconsin this afternoon. Notable
is that the high-resolutiin models that handle the morning
convection are less-robust with any thunderstorms this
afternoon, meaning the severe potential may be setting up
farther to our east over central & eastern Wisconsin.
Another chance for thunderstorms, including the potential for a
severe thunderstorm complex, look likely Wednesday morning.
These thunderstorms look to be more widespread & persist longer
through the morning, meaning temperatures do look to be cooler
during the afternoon in the low to mid 80s. It'l still be muggy,
but a welcome break from the excessive heat. Looking ahead -
it'll be more of the same through the holiday weekend with
muggy conditions & multiple chances for thunderstorms,
including a severe thunderstorm & heavy rain threat.
Temperatures do continue to look cooler than we were thinking a
few days ago, with highs generally in the 80s as opposed to
90s. The threat for an extended heat wave continues to trend
lower, but continue to take necessary cooling actions as needed.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
Convection from earlier this evening has dissipated with VFR
conditions at most terminals. SCT -TSRA is seen on radar for
EAU with instances of MVFR conditions through 07z. Skies remain
BKN to OVC at 5-10 kft with MVFR (BKN at 2-4 kft) for STC. Winds
generally S to SSW at 8-13 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots over
the next few hours, becoming 5-10 knots by 10z.
High resolution models continue to show a line of TSRA, or MCS-
like feature moving NE out of Nebraska and Iowa before moving
into Minnesota later this morning. PROB30s remain in TAFs for
all terminals except AXN and STC. If this line of TSRA maintains
and moves across the area flight categories may drop to IFR to
MVFR. Something we will be monitoring over the next several
hours and TAFs will be AMENDED if needed. High res models show
this activity departing the area by 12-13z with BKN-OVC skies in
it's wake. Skies will quickly clear by early afternoon with FEW
at 5-10 kft and FEW to SCT at 20-25 kft this afternoon. Winds
will be SW at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots this
afternoon.
KMSP...VFR conditions expected over the next several hours with
BKN to OVC skies. Winds remain breezy out of the S/SSW at 10-15
knots with gusts to 20-25 knots. Winds will slowly decrease
through the overnight and early morning timeframe. High res
model guidance continue to show a line of TSRA or MCS-like
feature moving NE out of Nebraska and Iowa before entering
Minnesota later this morning. PROB30s for TSRA remain in the
TAF. If said line of TSRA moves into the metro vicinity, flight
categories may become IFR to MVFR by 10z. This is something we
will continue monitoring in the coming hours and TAF will be
AMENDED if needed. High res models show this activity departing
the metro area by 12z with BKN to OVC skies in it's wake. Skies
will quickly clear by afternoon with FEW at 5-10 kft and FEW-SCT
at 20-25 kft during the afternoon. Winds in the afternoon will
be SW at 10-15 knots sustained with gusts to 20-25 knots.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Chc -TSRA. Wind SW 8-13G20 kts.
THU...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA. S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Chc PM -TSRA. S 5-10 kts.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Anoka-Blue Earth-
Brown-Carver-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-
Hennepin-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Rice-
Scott-Sibley-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright.
WI...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for Barron-Chippewa-
Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.
&&
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...LPRHazardous weather outlook, Jun 30, 1:27 AM CST, 36 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
227 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
010730-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
227 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.
.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
A line of thunderstorm will move across Minnesota & into western
Wisconsin early this morning. The highest chance for severe wind
gusts of 60+ mph is across southern Minnesota. Wind gusts of 40-60
mph are possible farther north into central Minnesota & western
Wisconsin.
Heat index values of 95-100 degrees are expected across eastern
Minnesota & western Wisconsin this afternoon.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Muggy conditions continue through the week, although max heat
index values should remain below 100 degrees.
Thunderstorm chances continue through most of the week. Severe
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are possible.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN spotter reports of wind & wind damage are requested this
morning.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 29, 8:25 PM CST, 5 hours 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
925 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
MNZ041-048-300330-
Douglas MN-Pope MN-
925 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT DOUGLAS AND POPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT...
At 925 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms near Cyrus, or 12 miles east of Morris, moving
northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cyrus, Gilchrist, Starbuck, Kensington, Lowry, Glenwood, Grove
Lake, Holmes City, Villard, Forada, Alexandria, Brandon,
Evansville, Garfield, Nelson, Carlos, Leaf Valley, Belle River and
Miltona.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 4593 9576 4611 9577 4611 9515 4593 9515
4593 9514 4559 9514 4559 9513 4541 9513
4541 9575 4559 9575 4559 9576
TIME...MOT...LOC 0225Z 214DEG 47KT 4564 9568
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CTGLocal storm report, Jun 29, 9:02 PM CST, 5 hours 1 minute before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1002 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0945 PM Hail Glenwood 45.65N 95.39W
06/29/2026 M1.00 Inch Pope MN Trained Spotter
&&Local storm report, Jun 29, 9:03 PM CST, 5 hours before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1003 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0955 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Alexandria 45.89N 95.38W
06/29/2026 Douglas MN Trained Spotter
Reports of tree damage in Alexandria.
&&Local storm report, Jun 29, 9:08 PM CST, 4 hours 55 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1008 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1000 PM Hail West Union 45.80N 95.08W
06/29/2026 M1.50 Inch Todd MN Trained Spotter
&&Special weather statement, Jun 29, 9:25 PM CST, 4 hours 38 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1025 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
MNZ065-073>075-300415-
Renville MN-Redwood MN-Nicollet MN-Brown MN-
1025 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL BROWN...NORTHWESTERN
NICOLLET...REDWOOD AND SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM
CDT...
At 1025 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walnut Grove, or 31 miles southwest of Redwood Falls, moving
northeast at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Walnut Grove, Revere, Lamberton, Sanborn, Wanda, Wabasso,
Springfield, Clements, Cobden, Redwood Falls, Morgan, Redwood Falls
Airport, North Redwood, Evan, Sleepy Eye, Morton, Franklin, Fort
Ridgely State Park, Essig and Fairfax.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 4420 9559 4425 9559 4474 9483 4431 9452
4418 9510 4420 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 0325Z 231DEG 53KT 4418 9547
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH
CTG