Drought in Minnesota, April 1 to 21, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1248 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds diminish this evening with dry conditions overnight into
  Wednesday.

- A large winter system will impact the region Wednesday evening
  through Thursday night with heavy, wet snow, freezing rain,
  and mixed precipitation all possible. Strong northeasterly
  winds off Lake Superior will lead to blowing snow and gales on
  the lake.

- A second storm will impact the region for Friday into Saturday
  with another round of heavy, wet snow, freezing rain, and
  mixed precipitation all possible. Travel impacts are likely
  with both systems.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Low pressure was located over southern Lake Michigan this
afternoon with a trough of low pressure extending back to the
northwest into northern Wisconsin, the Minnesota Arrowhead, and
into southwestern Manitoba. Snow showers were observed on radar
north of the International Border. High pressure was located
across the Canadian Prairies into the Northern Plains and was
building eastward. Drier air associated with the high was
eroding away at cloud cover across the Northland. A few light
snow showers may still move across the Arrowhead this afternoon,
but no accumulations are expected from this activity. Lows
tonight will fall into the teens and 20s. Dry conditions are
expected through at least midday Wednesday with highs in the 30s
and lower 40s.

A trough will move through the Intermountain West on Wednesday
leading to surface cyclogenesis across eastern Colorado during
the afternoon. Precipitation from this low will start to spread
across the Northland during the afternoon hours Wednesday with
heavier precipitation arriving Wednesday evening. While starting
out as snow, warmer air aloft will arrive overnight leading to
sleet and freezing rain mixing with snow starting in southern
areas after midnight with the mix spreading across all of
northwest Wisconsin and from the Brainerd area to the Twin Ports
by daybreak Thursday. As the day progresses Thursday, mixed
precipitation will continue across northwest Wisconsin as the
mix pivots across eastern/northeastern Minnesota through the
afternoon. As temperatures cool Thursday evening, a changeover
to all snow is likely as precipitation tapers off. There are a
few caveats with this system in regards to how much snow and ice
accumulation will occur and where the highest amounts will be.
Forecast trends have continued to be slightly more to the north
with the track of the low. This mirrors trends we've seen all
winter only to have the track end up more southerly at the last
minute. Very strong easterly winds off Lake Superior are also
expected for much of the event leading to both lake and terrain
enhancement in the Twin Ports area and up the North Shore. Also
working against snow accumulation will be early April sun angles
and the heavy, wet consistency. Our snowfall amounts don't
really take into consideration these last two caveats, so
observed snowfall amounts will likely be lower given melting and
compaction. A large swath of 6 to 9 inches is expected across
northeastern Minnesota into the South Shore area of northwest
Wisconsin with enhanced amounts to 10 to 12 inches along the
North Shore. Icing of a few hundredths of an inch will be
possible along the North and South Shores with higher ice
accumulations from Washburn County eastward into Sawyer,
southern Ashland, southern Iron and Price counties where a tenth
to a quarter of an inch of ice will be possible. A Winter Storm
Watch has been issued for the entire Northland to account for
the uncertainty, especially along the northwestern edge of the
system.

After a brief lull on Friday, another trough/upper low will
emerge from the Rockies with surface low pressure moving from
the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes late Friday into
Saturday. This will bring another round of heavy, wet snow and
mixed precipitation to the Northland starting as early as Friday
afternoon and continuing into Sunday night. This system looks
to be mainly snow across northeastern Minnesota with more in the
way of mix across northwest Wisconsin. Details on this system
are less clear at this time as we have to get through the first
system, but this is also looking to be very impactful with heavy
snow and icy roadways possible as we head into the holiday
travel period. Check back for future updates on this next system
as it may be a repeat of the Wednesday-Thursday system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Predominately VFR stratus affecting most terminals through the
current overnight hours, though has shifted south of INL. Expect
MVFR ceilings for much of the morning with this stratus deck
hanging around longest at HYR. MVFR ceilings and possibly some
light snow showers/flurries also stream in off of Lake Superior
this morning at DLH around to shortly after sunrise (30% chance) due
to east winds off the Lake. MVFR ceilings may briefly improve
for DLH during the afternoon, but could hang around all day as
well. A low pressure system approaches the area later today,
with some snow potential and MVFR conditions developing by the
late afternoon and evening for BRD, with IFR ceilings possible
by late evening. Chances for snow in the evening are lower at
DLH/HIB/HYR due to dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere
that will need to saturate first. PROB30 groups have been
included at these terminals. Wind gusts become gusty at DLH this
morning and remaining terminals starting around midday as the
surface pressure gradient increases ahead of the approaching low
pressure system.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 951 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Cancelled Small Craft Advisories for this evening as winds have
decreased below criteria. I also added new Small Craft
Advisories starting on Wednesday and leading up to the pre-
issued Gale Watches, as gusty winds are expected to develop
during the day Wednesday. No other changes from the previous
discussion.

Previous Discussion:
Northwesterly winds this evening will turn northeasterly
overnight and increase ahead of a system that will bring
widespread rain, freezing rain, and wintry mix to the region
starting Wednesday evening. Northwesterly winds of 5 to 15 knots
will be in place this evening with waves subsiding. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect through 10pm due to waves. The
east-northeasterly winds increase on Wednesday to 15 to 25 knots
with gales to 30 to 35 knots Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday
night. The strongest winds are expected at the head of Lake
Superior. Winds further increase to 20 to 30 knots Thursday with
gales to 35 to 45 knots into Thursday evening. As the low passes
to the south, winds will become northerly Thursday night and
diminish to 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots by Friday
morning. Another period of easterly gales is then expected for
Friday night into Saturday morning as another low moves through
the region. In addition to the wind and waves Wednesday into
Thursday, snow, rain, sleet, freezing rain, and wintry mix will
all be possible at times leading to reduced visibilities and
possible icing.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through late Thursday
     night for MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.
WI...Winter Storm Watch from this evening through late Thursday
     night for WIZ001>004-006>009.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT
     Thursday for LSZ140>142.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     LSZ140.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night
     for LSZ141>147-150.
     Winter Storm Watch from this evening through late Thursday
     night for LSZ142.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 AM CDT
     Thursday for LSZ143>146-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT
     Thursday for LSZ147.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM CDT
     Friday for LSZ148.

&&

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...JDS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Duluth MN
341 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-012045-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
341 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Two rounds of accumulating snow and ice are possible later this
week from Wednesday night into Thursday and late Friday night
through Saturday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or
tonight.

LSZ121-140>148-150-012045-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
341 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Strong north to northeasterly winds continue into this evening
with gusts of 20 to 33 knots and waves of 4 to 8 feet. Small Craft
Advisories are in effect.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Another round of strong northeast winds are likely Wednesday
night into next weekend. Gale force gusts are likely Thursday into
Friday morning and a Gale Watch is in effect.

KML

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth