What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 5, 12:55 PM EST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop into the late afternoon, continuing west to east into tonight. A few storms could be strong in the afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts will range from a quarter to a half inch across much of the area through this evening.
- Hotter weather returns into next week, with another round of showers and storms Monday. Diurnally-driven showers and storms will be possible the remainder of the week (15-30% chance each day).
Area forecast discussion, Jun 5, 12:55 PM EST, 3 hours 50 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
155 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms develop into the late
afternoon, continuing west to east into tonight. A few storms could
be strong in the afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts will range
from a quarter to a half inch across much of the area through this
evening.
- Hotter weather returns into next week, with another round of
showers and storms Monday. Diurnally-driven showers and storms will
be possible the remainder of the week (15-30% chance each day).
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Afternoon surface analysis places broad low pressure right over Lake
Superior, with a trailing cold front exiting the Arrowhead of MN.
The UP thus remains in the warm sector. Skies have cleared out
across much of the area in the wake of morning showers, with the
exception being the eastern UP where lower stratus continues to
stream off of Lake Michigan. Still, Day Cloud RGB reveals some
agitated cu developing over the central and western UP, excluding
the Keweenaw and western Ontonagon and Gogebic counties. There, I
suspect onshore flow is leading to a more stable airmass. More
inland, RAP analysis reveals SBCAPE as high as 1500-2000j/kg and
steep lower-level lapse rates, and a few cells are already starting
to pop over the central UP. Storms should increase in coverage over
the next couple of hours, and bulk shear increasing to 20-30kts
could help sustain updrafts and lead to a stronger storm here and
there. Hail and gusty winds would be the main threat. Keep an eye on
the skies heading into your Friday evening! Given PWATs as high as
1.5in, brief, heavy downpours are not out of the question, and will
note that CAMS also indicate a potential for some training to occur
before the cold front sweeps through later tonight. A general
quarter to half-inch of rain is expected over much of the UP through
the first half of tonight, but higher totals even up to an inch are
not out of the question where heavy downpours or multiple rounds of
storms can occur (50% chance).
Most showers should exit the region by the overnight hours into
Saturday, leaving a mostly dry day except for a few lingering
showers in the far east early Saturday morning. With building 500mb
ridging over the Great Lakes this weekend, expect a warming trend as
temperatures climb back into the mid 80s inland of the Great Lakes
by Sunday, though weak surface flow under a surface high will keep
lake breezes and cooler shoreline highs in the forecast. Beyond
Sunday, ensembles struggle about the details, with various clusters
of surface features, but the broad pattern of ridging centered over
the Ontario/Quebec line and troughing over the West Coast will put
the UP in southwesterly flow aloft with various shortwave features
emerging from the base of the large-scale trough over the Rockies
providing some opportunities for diurnally-boosted minor
shower/thunder chances (~15-30%). The ridging and persistent warm
southerly flow will keep the warming trend continuing, with the NBM
suggesting some mid to upper 90s highs in the interior west in the
mid- to late-week, though raw guidance suggests highs in the mid 80s
instead, so it is to be determined whether the NBM bias correction
is overcorrecting or if the hottest airmass of the season to date
will be upon us.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
Showers and thunderstorms fill back in as a front crosses the area
this afternoon and instability increases with daytime heating.
Expect -TSRA to remain south of KCMX, ending at KIWD by around 00z
Sat and KSAW by around 04z. IFR/LIFR fog and cig restrictions will
be possible at CMX and SAW, though, early tomorrow morning in the
wake of any convective activity.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 155 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
A low pressure passing north of Lake Superior today will bring up to
35% chances of some thunderstorms, but otherwise will not be strong
enough to kick up wind gusts of 20+ kt. Otherwise, satellite and
available webcams reveal areas of fog over the western arm of the
lake, which should spread eastward into tonight with the passage of
a cold front. With high pressure reestablishing over the weekend,
winds remain light until Sunday afternoon, when east/northeast winds
pick up to around 20kts over the western portions of the lake ahead
of another approaching low pressure. Guidance takes this over the
area Monday, and brings a 50-70% chances of 20+ kt gusts especially
in the east to central portions of the lake. Winds fall back after
Monday, but may pick up again late next week as low pressure moving
out of the Rockies leads to a tightening pressure gradient over the
Great Lakes.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION...TDUD
MARINE...LC
Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 5, 2:36 PM EST, 2 hours 9 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Marquette MI
336 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-061945-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce-
Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft-
Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft-
336 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 /236 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper
Michigan and western Upper Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
Scattered thunderstorms continue across the western and central UP
through this evening. Some strong storms are possible. See the
SPC Convective Outlook for more information.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.
LSZ162-240>251-263>267-061945-
Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand
Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI-
Black River to Ontonagon MI-
Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI-
Eagle River to Manitou Island MI-
Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI-
Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI-
Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including
Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI-
Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI-
Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI-
Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage
Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle
Royale National Park-
Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou
Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border-
Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI
and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border
Beyond 5NM from shore-
Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off
shore to the US/Canadian border-
336 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026 /236 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026/
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake
Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
Areas of dense fog may lead to visibility below one nautical mile
at times this afternoon through tonight. See the latest Marine
Weather Message for more details.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.
LMZ221-248-250-061945-
Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island
Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI-
5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage-
336 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake
Michigan.
.DAY ONE...Tonight
Areas of dense fog may lead to visibility below one nautical mile
at times this afternoon into this evening. See the latest Marine
Weather Message for more details.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this
time.
LC
This product is being discontinued on June 21 as part of an effort
to streamline communication and provide more timely, targeted, and
actionable information to our partners and the public. Discontinuing
the Hazardous Weather Outlook will not result in a reduction in
service or situational awareness, as all the same information will
still be available at weather.gov/mqt. If you have questions or
concerns, please reach out to NWS Marquette at
nws.marquette@noaa.gov.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Jun 5, 3:35 PM EST, 1 hour 10 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
435 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
MIZ002-009-052115-
Ontonagon MI-Gogebic MI-
435 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL GOGEBIC AND WEST CENTRAL
ONTONAGON COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT/415 PM CDT/...
At 435 PM EDT/335 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 7 miles northeast of Wakefield, or 17 miles south of
Porcupine Mountains State Park, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Bergland, Northern Lake Gogebic, and Merriweather.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4648 8983 4655 8984 4665 8953 4649 8948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 257DEG 14KT 4652 8978
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
tdudSpecial weather statement, Jun 5, 3:56 PM EST, 49 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
456 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
MIZ013-052200-
Delta MI-
456 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN DELTA COUNTY THROUGH
600 PM EDT...
At 455 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rock, or 20 miles north of Escanaba, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Nahma, U.S. 41 between Trenary and Rapid River, Isabella, Ensign,
Maplewood, Chicago Lake, Perkins, and Nahma Junction.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4599 8719 4610 8714 4608 8654 4582 8663
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 282DEG 22KT 4604 8710
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
tdudSpecial weather statement, Jun 5, 4:02 PM EST, 43 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
502 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
MIZ005-052145-
Marquette MI-
502 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MARQUETTE COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...
At 502 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
West Ishpeming, or near Ishpeming, moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Ishpeming, Negaunee, and West Ishpeming.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4648 8777 4654 8778 4660 8751 4648 8747
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 260DEG 16KT 4651 8772
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
tdudSpecial weather statement, Jun 5, 4:14 PM EST, 31 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
414 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
MIZ010-052200-
Iron MI-
414 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN IRON COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM CDT...
At 414 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Amasa, or 13 miles north of Crystal Falls, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Iron
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4625 8844 4634 8844 4637 8815 4622 8815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 268DEG 24KT 4629 8836
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
tdudSpecial weather statement, Jun 5, 4:21 PM EST, 24 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
521 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
MIZ002-009-010-084-052200-
Ontonagon MI-Gogebic MI-Southern Houghton MI-Iron MI-
521 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN IRON...SOUTHEASTERN
GOGEBIC AND SOUTHERN ONTONAGON COUNTIES THROUGH 600 PM EDT/500 PM
CDT/...
At 521 PM EDT/421 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Watersmeet, or 27 miles north of Eagle River,
moving east at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Watersmeet and Paint Lake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4625 8923 4634 8925 4646 8889 4626 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 249DEG 26KT 4631 8915
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
tdudSpecial weather statement, Jun 5, 4:25 PM EST, 20 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
525 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
MIZ012-013-052215-
Delta MI-Menominee MI-
525 PM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL MENOMINEE COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT/515 PM CDT/...
At 524 PM EDT/424 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 9 miles southeast of Powers, or 19 miles southwest of
Escanaba, moving east at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Gourley.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4556 8744 4560 8744 4565 8726 4554 8731
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 260DEG 13KT 4558 8740
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
tdud