Damaging Winds in Massachusetts, June 30, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
157 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Extreme Heat Warning issued for most of the area Wednesday
through Friday. Heat Advisory issued for the rest of the area,
which includes some higher elevations areas such as the
Adirondacks, northern Catskills, southern Greens and northern
Berkshires.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch #423 has been issued through 8 pm for
much of our area. Main threat is damaging winds gusts, with
isolated large hail. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms remains for
this afternoon and evening in eastern NY and southern VT from
around Albany and I-90 northward, and a Slight Risk for all of
eastern New York and western New England on Wednesday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will
lead to an increased risk for heat-related illnesses from
Wednesday through Saturday, when HeatRisk impacts will likely
reach the Major to locally Extreme Categories.

2) There is the potential for thunderstorms to affect parts of
the region each day this week beginning today. Confidence is
still fairly low regarding coverage and placement of storms, but
some may be strong to severe today and tomorrow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

The anomalously strong upper level ridge (500 mb heights of
594-597 dam and +2 to +3 STDEV) will continue to build east
through Friday, encompassing much of the eastern third of the
CONUS. The core of the ridge axis will be positioned just south
of our area, but the expansive scope of the ridge along with the
anomalously warm airmass (850mb temperature anomalies of +2 to
+3 STDEV) and with humid conditions (dewpoints in the lower/mid
70s) will result in extreme heat conditions for many lower
elevations beginning Wed. Actual max temperatures in the mid to
upper 90s Wed and mid 90s to lower 100s Thu and Fri combined
with the high dewpoints looks to result in heat index (feels-
like temperatures) of 100 to 110 widespread in lower elevations,
with even 95-100F heat indices in higher elevations. The
HeatRisk categories will be major (level 3 of 4) to extreme
(level 4 of 4) across the entire area.

Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for Wed-Fri where there is
high confidence in heat indices of 105-111F, with a Heat
Advisory issued for some higher elevation areas where max heat
indices of 95-104F are forecast. Essentially the areas that were
previously under the Watch have been upgraded to a Warning. There
will be a compounding effect each day, as there will not be
much relief at night during this time, with lows mainly in the
lower/mid 70s and humid conditions persisting.

Thu looks like the hottest day, as ALB may make a run at 100F.
The last 100 degree temperature at ALB was back in 1953,
although it has reached 99 a few times in the past 15 years. As
of now, we are forecasting a high of 99F at ALB for Thu.

While the heat indices ease slightly on Sat (July 4th),
forecast max values in the mid to upper 90s in lower elevations
would still eventually necessitate the issuance of additional
Heat Advisories. A gradual decrease in the temperatures could
begin to occur Sunday into early next week, as a cold front
gradually moves in from the north.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

There is a complex of storms (MCS) with a well-defined bow echo
approaching far eastern Lake Ontario and the Tug Hill area. The
eastern extent of this complex may move across western parts of
the Mohawk Valley and Adirondacks this afternoon. Additional
T-storm development is possible outside of the MCS. Therefore a
severe thunderstorm watch has been issued through 8 pm for most
of the area except for Ulster/Dutchess NY, Litchfield CT and
Windham VT counties.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to have a Slight
Risk (level 2 of 5) outlook for severe storms from around Albany
and I-90 northward in NT and into S. VT this afternoon, with a
Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of area farther south.
The convective setup is a bit muddled, as there will be ample
forcing from a disturbance spilling over the ridge in SE Canada.
However, there are convective debris clouds over our area this
afternoon, which will limit surface-based instability. The
latest REFS has around 500-1000 J/Kg of SBCAPE this
afternoon/evening. There is instability aloft though, as a
remnant EML approaches towards evening. Still, with 0-6 km shear
of 30-40 kt, there is the potential for strong to severe
storms, with damaging wind gusts the main threat. Isolated large
hail may also occur. There is a low probability for an isolated
tornado, especially if any supercells can develop ahead of the
main clusters/lines expected. As PWATs increase, locally heavy
downpours will likely occur with any storms, but relatively fast
movement should generally prevent flash flooding.

On Wed, the environment looks to be slightly more capped as the
ridge axis shift farther east, but there is still the threat of
widely scattered storms along the northern periphery of the
upper ridge. With high heat/humidity building, the environment
will be conducive for some severe storms if they can develop,
with a high magnitude of SBCAPE of 3000-3500 J/Kg, although 0-6
km shear will be weaker around 20-25 kt from the REFS. Wet
downbursts producing isolated wind damage is the main threat on
Wed. SPC has upgraded to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) outlook
for the entire region.

There looks to be a stronger cap on Thu, with the ridge axis
positioned just to our south. Will maintain PoPs < 20%. With
similar pattern on Fri, an isolated shower/T-storm cannot be
ruled out, but most of the area should be dry much of the day.
Potentially more widespread convection possible Sat into Sun
during the July 4th holiday weekend, as the ridge aloft flattens
while a cold front approaches from the north.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions will prevail across all
terminals at the start of this TAF period, though brief periods
of MVFR cigs/vis are possible this afternoon and evening. The
timing and coverage of these storms remain the primary challenge
during this period, reflected by PROB30 groups through 23Z-03Z
tonight. The initial potential starts this afternoon at KGFL and
KPSF, followed by another window of potential showers/storms
this evening at KALB, KPOU, and KPSF. Low-to-mid level clouds
will stick around overnight, with the potential for periods of
mist/fog and IFR conditions at KGFL. KALB and KPOU are expected
to remain VFR, while KGFL and KPSF are expected to see
persistentMVFR cigs through Wednesday morning.

Light to moderate southerly to southwesterly flow will persist
throughout this period across all terminals, with KPOU expected
to maintain more breezy conditions with gusts up to 15 kts this
evening and tomorrow morning. If/when storms develop this
afternoon/evening, periods of highly variable and strong winds
and gusts are expected. Otherwise, wind speeds and directions
will remain fairly consistent through Wednesday morning before
starting to veer more southwesterly to westerly by the end of
the TAF period.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Current Record High Temperatures

July 1:
Albany: 99 (1913)
Glens Falls: 100 (1913)
Poughkeepsie: 99 (1933)

July 2:
Albany: 98 (1966, 1901)
Glens Falls: 96 (1911, 1901)
Poughkeepsie: 97 (1966)

July 3:
Albany: 102 (1911)
Glens Falls: 101 (1911)
Poughkeepsie: 103 (1966)

Last 100-Degree Day:
Albany: September 3, 1953
Glens Falls: July 10, 1988
Poughkeepsie: June 24, 2025

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for CTZ001-013.
NY...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for NYZ038>041-043-047>054-059>061-063>066-083-084.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     NYZ032-033-042-058-082.
MA...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for MAZ025.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     MAZ001.
VT...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday
     for VTZ013-015.
     Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Friday for
     VTZ014.

&&

DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
CLIMATE...33

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
522 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0422 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Mariaville              42.83N 74.14W
06/30/2026                   Schenectady        NY   Dept of Highways

            Downed pole and wires on NY 159 between
            Levey Road and Mariaville Scotch Church
            Road.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
529 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 W Fonda               42.95N 74.42W
06/30/2026                   Montgomery         NY   Law Enforcement

            Downed trees and wires closing all lanes of
            Hickory Hill Road, between Martin Road and
            Gunnerson Lane.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
533 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Hagaman            43.01N 74.20W
06/30/2026                   Fulton             NY   911 Call Center

            Trees down in the Perth area.

&&

07

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
537 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 WSW Fonda             42.95N 74.41W
06/30/2026                   Montgomery         NY   Law Enforcement

            Numerous downed trees and wires down closing
            all of Martin Road, between Hickory Hill
            Road and State Highway 5.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
539 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 NW Cohoes             42.81N 73.76W
06/30/2026                   Saratoga           NY   Law Enforcement

            Report of trees down on Clamsteam Rd in
            Halfmoon.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albany NY
540 PM EDT Tue Jun 30 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0342 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 W Fonda               42.96N 74.44W
06/30/2026                   Montgomery         NY   Law Enforcement

            Numerous trees and wires down closing all
            lanes of Stone Arabia Road, between Martin
            Road and Barker Road.

&&

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