A thunderstorm moving through Saginaw Bay produced a wind gusts in excess of 45 knots.
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The episode as NWS DTX wrote it up.
A thunderstorm moving through Saginaw Bay produced a wind gusts in excess of 45 knots.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 4, 6:08 PM EST, 4 hours 22 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 708 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance of thunderstorms this evening into tonight. Much of the forecast area is in a Marginal or Slight risk designation for Severe weather with large hail, strong wind gusts, and a brief weak tornado potential threats. - Low confidence exists in the timing and duration of rain Tuesday and Wednesday. - Much cooler temperatures return Tuesday and last through the end of the week. A Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning may be needed. && .AVIATION... Cluster of showers and thunderstorms evident on radar moving east- northeast will move through the Detroit airspace this evening. To the north, little evidence to suggest convective development, with conditions marked by a well mixed environment supporting gusty southwest wind and a more limited coverage of high based diurnal cu thru late evening. An inbound cold front then sags southeast across the region during the early morning hours. This will maintain potential for shower production, with some embedded thunderstorms possible. Window for some degree of lower cloud development will exist along and immediately behind the cold late tonight, affording brief cigs at low VFR to borderline MVFR. Wind shift to northwesterly with the frontal passage. Additional pockets of light showers expected Tuesday along the lingering elevated frontal zone. D21/DTW Convection...Thunderstorms to lift across DTW through 01- 02z. Upstream radar and observational trends indicate potential for gusts to push 40 knots with brief heavy rainfall and hail with these thunderstorms. Some interludes of IFR to LIFR visibility restrictions possible as heavy activity moves through. Additional showers are expected overnight into Tuesday morning as a cold front tracks through, some of which could include embedded thunder. Winds will shift to the northwest mid-to-late Tuesday morning. .DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * High for thunderstorms this evening. Low tonight. * Low for ceiling at or below 5000 feet this evening and tonight; medium Tuesday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 DISCUSSION... Well mixed southwesterly flow has developed over all of Southeast Michigan this afternoon with 2pm wind gusts at a few of the ASOS sites reaching and exceeding 45 mph. Surface moisture has mixed out over much of the northern cwa with many observing platforms reporting relative humidity between 19-25 percent. With dry southwest flow persisting this afternoon and with collaboration considerations, decided to go with a Red Flag Warning in effect until 7pm this evening. Atypical, in-phase squeezing event of northern stream Canadian trough and Southwestern United States ridge will result in a strengthening baroclinic zone over portions of Lower Michigan and northern Ohio River Valley by Tuesday. Two boundaries reflect this competing geopotential height pattern: the first is the deep cold front progressing through the Lake Superior basin, the second is a thetae/CAPE gradient that will emerge and lift into far southern portions of Southeast Michigan between 21-03z this evening. Very subtle forcing mechanism at work across the forecast area this afternoon with a lack of upper level jet dynamics and synoptic lift locally. Differential loss of the anticyclonic flow trajectories over Southeast Michigan is expected to allow for a region of height falls, inducing northward moisture transport of 900mb thetae content. Remnant midlevel dry adiabatic lapse rates with help from the Evening Transition will result in the development of mixed layer CAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg with the CAPE gradient lifting northward through Metro Detroit. CAM output is quite bullish on convective initiation/development along the boundary 22-01z. 0-6mb bulk shear of 30 to 35 knots will be adequate for storm organization, although hiresolution data shows little signal for storm right movement. CAPE gradient boundary does become parallel to the 850-300mb mean flow suggesting a potential for training of activity. Therefore, large hail and localized heavy rainfall are the main threats this evening. Forecast soundings do suggest higher static stability developing with the loss of daytime heating from the surface to 4.0 kft agl suggesting strong wind gusts may be more difficult to observe outside of any organized cold pool or forward propagation. The threat of a tornado appears to be very low although a boundary is overhead with 0-1km SRH that reaches 150 m2/s2. The Canadian trough will encroach on the area tonight driving the deep cold front through the area. Differences exist on how generous the coverage of showers and embedded thunderstorms will be overnight highlighted by the latest forecast with PoPs at generally less than 60%. Models show a dead zone of both the 700 and 850mb frontogenesis over Southeast Michigan but with deep southwest flow the potential exists for upstream activity to track through the area. MUCAPE of 250-500 J/kg in place ahead of the cold may support some small hail between 02-05z. The latest SWODY1 has areas south and west of a line from Chesaning to Grosse Pointe designated as a Marginal Risk for Severe weather and a Slight risk across southern Lenawee and Monroe counties. Uncertainty exists with regards to precipitation timing and coverage Tuesday midday through late Wednesday morning. Low confidence arises from stark differences in the occurrence and subsequent timing of a wave of low pressure set to track northeastward along the baroclinic zone. Latest data of system relative flow on isentropic surfaces supports the surface cold front clearing the area 15-18z with lingering lower column RH overhead. CAM simulated Z supports decaying nocturnal showers pushing through Metro Detroit southward between 15-21z Tuesday which is supported by likely PoPs. The solution space then diverges greatly Wednesday with the NAM the most bullish on an organized low pressure circulation tracking along the Ohio River. This would bring a fairly lengthy period of midlevel isentropic ascent to the southern cwa Wednesday. The current forecast is very lean on PoPs for the Wednesday period. Low geopotential heights are forecasted to persist over the central Great Lakes through the end of the week and upcoming weekend. Lowered midlevel temperatures will likely support typical afternoon instability shower chances. The biggest item will likely be the need for Frost and/or Freeze headlines particularly Thursday morning. Some moderation in temperatures to near normal is possible by this weekend but the forecast will likely be determined by the amount of clouds over the region. MARINE... Breezy southwest winds prevail across the area this afternoon, though the warmer air mass overriding the cooler Great Lakes waters has allowed for a more stable environment with wind gusts mostly remaining below 25 knots. Fetch across the Saginaw Bay remains favorable for locally stronger winds, so have maintained the ongoing Small Craft Advisory through the evening hours. Isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible later this afternoon and evening, most favorable across Lake Erie and Lake St. Clair. Any stronger storm development will be capable of producing small hail and wind gusts of 34 knots or stronger. A cold front dropping south across the western half of Lake Superior this afternoon will gradually work south across the region late tonight and into Tuesday morning. Winds from the north briefly dominant behind the cold front, but then lessen in speed and become more variable during the day Tuesday. Tuesday night through Thursday, winds will back from the northeast to north and eventually from the west, as another area of low pressure organizes south of the region and moves over the Northeast. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && AVIATION.....MR DISCUSSION...CB MARINE.......JA You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 353 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 MIZ047>049-053>055-060>062-052000- Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer- 353 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 7pm. A Marginal and Slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists this evening south of I 69. Damgaing wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated weak tornado are possible threats. Thunderstorm motion will be northeast at 40 MPH. A cold front will result in the chance for thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning may be needed for portions of Southeast Michigan Thursday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. MIZ063-068>070-075-076-082-083-052000- St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- 353 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for southeast Michigan. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Marginal and Slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists this evening south of I 69. Damgaing wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated weak tornado are possible threats. Thunderstorm motion will be northeast at 40 MPH. A cold front will result in the chance for thunderstorms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday A Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning may be needed for portions of Southeast Michigan Thursday morning. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-052000- Lake St Clair- Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI- Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore- Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore- Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore- Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI- Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI- Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI- Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore- Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore- 353 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake Huron and Lake St Clair. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Marginal and Slight risk of severe thunderstorms exists this evening south of I 69. Damgaing wind gusts, large hail, and an isolated weak tornado are possible threats. Thunderstorm motion will be northeast at 40 MPH. A cold front will result in the chance for thunderstorms. Small craft advisories remain in effect for Saginaw Bay today. Please refer to the latest nearshore marine forecast for details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight. You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit. CB
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
712 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026
MIZ069-075-076-042345-
Oakland MI-Washtenaw MI-Wayne MI-
712 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WAYNE...SOUTHERN
OAKLAND AND NORTHEASTERN WASHTENAW COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM EDT...
At 711 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Whitmore Lake to near Salem to near Canton.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Livonia, Troy, Southfield, Pontiac, Novi, Romulus, Canton, Royal Oak,
Birmingham, South Lyon, Northville, Salem, Detroit Zoo, Whitmore
Lake, West Bloomfield, Westland, Farmington Hills, Rochester Hills,
Dearborn Heights, and Madison Heights.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4222 8348 4234 8367 4243 8379 4243 8367
4252 8367 4268 8344 4265 8318 4247 8308
4246 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 2311Z 229DEG 33KT 4244 8373 4238 8361 4228 8345
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SFSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
737 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026
MIZ069-070-076-050015-
Macomb MI-Oakland MI-Wayne MI-
737 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE...
SOUTHEASTERN OAKLAND AND SOUTHERN MACOMB COUNTIES THROUGH 815 PM
EDT...
At 736 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Detroit, or near Southfield, moving east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Warren, Troy, Southfield, St. Clair Shores, Mount Clemens, Grosse
Pointe, Downtown Detroit, Detroit, Sterling Heights, Dearborn, Royal
Oak, Birmingham, Clinton Township, Detroit Zoo, Belle Isle,
Greenfield Village, Dearborn Heights, Roseville, Eastpointe, and
Madison Heights.
People attending Comerica Park should seek safe shelter immediately!
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 4264 8274 4263 8277 4261 8274 4254 8275
4254 8276 4253 8282 4244 8283 4237 8288
4234 8297 4232 8306 4228 8310 4229 8328
4255 8323 4267 8274
TIME...MOT...LOC 2336Z 252DEG 38KT 4242 8316
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
SFPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
752 PM EDT Mon May 04 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0740 PM Hail 2 E Hazel Park 42.46N 83.06W
05/04/2026 E0.88 inch Macomb MI Public
Report of nickel sized hail
&&
Event Number DTX2600438
AMPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
824 PM EDT Mon May 04 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0754 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Grosse Pointe YC 42.43N 82.87W
05/04/2026 M61 mph Wayne MI Mesonet
&&
Event Number DTX2600439
sfPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
829 PM EDT Mon May 04 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0806 PM Tstm Wnd Gst Lake St. Clair Metropar 42.57N 82.80W
05/04/2026 M51 mph Macomb MI Mesonet
&&
Event Number DTX2600440
sfPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1115 PM EDT Mon May 04 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0810 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg Saint Clair Shores 42.50N 82.89W
05/04/2026 Macomb MI Broadcast Media
Media reported a large tree limb fell onto a home,
causing damage to the roof.
&&
Event Number DTX2600441
SCThe Detroit radar (KDTX), 125 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:28 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Huron in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1342964.