Drought in Kentucky, May 1 to 31, 2026

Name: Drought in Kentucky, May 1 to 31, 2026
Start: 2026-05-01T00:00
End: 2026-05-31T23:59
Location: Kentucky

May 1 to 31, 2026 · NWS RLX · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

May began with moderate drought (D1) in northeast Kentucky. By the third week of the month, conditions worsened to severe drought (D2) in Lawrence, southern Carter, and southern Boyd counties.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS RLX wrote it up.

May began with moderate drought (D1) in northeast Kentucky. By the third week of the month, conditions worsened to severe drought (D2) in Lawrence, southern Carter, and southern Boyd counties. Fortunately, enough precipitation fell the following week to confine D2 to far southern Lawrence. D1 improved to D0 in central Carter and Boyd, while drought was completely eliminated from Greenup, northern Boyd, and part of northern Carter County. Impacts included hauling water for livestock, supplemental feeding for livestock due to slow pasture growth, and slow crop growth.

Less than an inch of rain fell during the first half of the month. The second half of the month was much more active, with precipitation amounts ranging from three to eight inches across northeast Kentucky. This allowed for significant improvements to drought conditions.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 30, 6:35 PM EST, 5 hours 25 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

1.) Frost/freeze conditions for some locations through the weekend. 2.) A series of disturbances will provide periodic chances of showers. 3.) A strong cold front for next Wednesday or Thursday.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 30, 6:35 PM EST, 5 hours 25 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
735 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Minor adjustments were done to D1 PoPs. No other major changes
were made at this time. Frost and Freeze headlines continue for
tonight.

As of 720 PM Thursday...

Updated aviation discussion. Added some valley fog in the
mountain valleys.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Frost/freeze conditions for some locations through the
weekend.

2.) A series of disturbances will provide periodic chances of
showers.

3.) A strong cold front for next Wednesday or Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cooler conditions underneath an upper trough centered across
lower Canada will remain in place through the weekend. Light
winds and low temperatures dropping into the low 30s or upper
20s in spots will allow for frost or freeze conditions tonight,
to a lesser degree Friday night and then again on Saturday
night. Saturday night looks to be the coldest with lows along
the Appalachians dropping into the mid 20s in spots.

The limiting reagent in frost formation the next two nights
looks to be cloud cover, which may hug the ridges tonight.
Tomorrow frost potential shifts west into eastern Ohio, but more
stout cloud cover may lower this risk enough to preclude
headline issuance. Saturday night has the best chance for
widespread frost/freeze headlines with lingering clouds expected
to be fleeting near the ridges as we near sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The aforementioned upper level trough remains anchored in
southern Canada through the weekend. Disturbances continue to
round through the flow and each brings renewed shower chances
through Saturday.

Showers are expected through the remainder of the afternoon
today before drying out after sunset. Chances pick up again with
the next wave expected to return more widespread showers Friday
afternoon. For both Thursday and Friday, shower chances remain
highest across northern West Virginia and central Ohio.

The upper level trough kicks eastward Saturday, allowing
another chance for showers favoring the eastern ridges, aided by
light upslope flow. Height rises and high pressure nosing into
the region from the southwest then promote dry conditions on
Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Ensembles continue to agree on another upper level trough
crossing the Eastern CONUS sometime mid-to-late next week.
Ensembles still don't yet fully agree on the timing of this
wave, with clustered ensembles favoring a possibly slower wave.
Despite the uncertainty on exact timing, the presence of this
wave likely renews rain chances and promotes another push of
cooler temperatures behind a cold front.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions will start the 00Z TAF period as diurnal
cumulus dissipates with the loss of daytime heating. The main
aviation concern overnight is the development of valley fog as
high pressure settles in overhead. High confidence exists for
IFR to LIFR conditions at EKN, where recent rainfall has
moistened the boundary layer. Lower confidence exists for fog
at CRW, CKB, and PKB. Given the drier airmass in place across
the lowlands, have opted to keep conditions predominantly VFR at
these terminals with only a hint of fog or low cloud for now
heading into daybreak.

Winds will remain calm to light and variable overnight,
eventually becoming northwesterly at 5 to 10 KT on Friday behind
a passing cold front. This front will also bring isolated to
scattered showers to the northern terminals by Friday afternoon,
potentially resulting in rain showers and brief visibility
restrictions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight with fog, otherwise high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Cloud cover at EKN may be slow to
dissipate, slowing formation of any fog. Fog could be more
widespread for the northern terminals where at least patchy
light rain fell today.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
EDT 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
There is potential for IFR in fog Sunday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     WVZ031-032-039-040-515>522-524.
     Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     WVZ523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JP/99
AVIATION...JP

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Boyd

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Where: Boyd forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 38.360, -82.688 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Carter

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Where: Carter forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 38.318, -83.049 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Greenup

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Where: Greenup forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 38.546, -82.922 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Drought, Lawrence

When: May 1, 12:00 AM EST to May 31, 11:59 PM EST
Where: Lawrence forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 38.068, -82.735 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Kentucky in 2026 Every state in 2026 This day in weather history Warnings in Kentucky, May 2026

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1335613, 1335614, 1335615, 1335616.