Flood and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, April 27 to 29, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
807 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms will occur later this evening into the
overnight ahead of a cold front. A few strong to severe storms will
be possible late this evening and into the overnight hours.

2) A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley Tuesday
night, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. A drier and
cooler airmass will then settle into the region for the rest of the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing back to our west
early this afternoon in association with a mid level short wave
lifting northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley. This activity is
expected to gradually weaken as it moves east toward our area and
outruns the better forcing in addition to encountering a somewhat
drier/less unstable airmass in place across our area. That being
said, some of these showers will likely make it into at least
western portions of our area later this afternoon into early evening.

Meanwhile, as areas back to our west further destabilize this
afternoon, additional showers and storms are expected to develop.
This activity will eventually consolidate into more of a line of
showers and thunderstorms that will move east-southeast into our
area late this evening and into the overnight hours. By this time,
the better surface based instabilities just off to our west
will begin to pinch off, but as the stronger forcing moves into our
area, this may still be enough for a few strong to severe storms.
The best chance for severe still looks to be across our far western
to southwest areas in the 11 PM to 3 AM time frame. Bowing segments
with damaging winds remain the primary severe threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2)
A slow moving cold front will sag southeast across our area Tuesday
into Wednesday. Some additional mid level energy moving into the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will help a surface wave/low spin up
along the front, which will then move along or just south of the
Ohio River through Tuesday night. There is some uncertainty as to the
exact placement of the front through Tuesday afternoon, but some
weak destabilization along and southeast of the front will likely
lead to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development
through the day. The best chance for this appears to be across our
southeastern areas.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread our area
Tuesday night in association with the surface wave. Given the more
southern trend, any severe threat looks minimal at this time with
this feature. Pcpn will taper off later Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning as the low moves off to the east and the cold front moves
through. Behind the front, a drier and cooler airmass will settle
into the area for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Winds starting the period are erratic between the TAF sites, but
should come around to the southeast with sustained 15-20kt and gusts
to 30-35kt before turning southerly around 07Z-08Z. A corresponding
decrease in wind speed is also expected, but still maintain a
respectable 15g25kt. Stratiform rain with rumbles of thunder will be
the rule for the next several hours, ending around 07Z-09Z. Will
maintain a watchful eye on the incoming wx from IN/IL as these storms
may hold together and be more of a typical thunderstorm until the
exit before daybreak.

Cigs remain VFR for a while and then drop to MVFR with an occasional
dip to IFR around daybreak. They will then lift back to MVFR for the
morning hours and scatter out towards noon. By this time, winds will
have turned more wsw 12-15kt G20-22kt.

OUTLOOK....Additional thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings are possible at times into
Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...Franks

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
853 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ034-042-060-070-077-
290100-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mercer-Darke-Preble-Butler-Hamilton-
853 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northern Kentucky, southwest Ohio and west
central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of thunderstorms will move into the region around midnight.
Some of these storms may produce damaging winds, and an isolated
tornado can not be ruled out.

In addition, heavy rainfall will be found with these storms and could
lead to localized flooding, especially in flood prone areas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed.

OHZ026-035-043>045-051-052-290100-
Hardin-Auglaize-Shelby-Logan-Union-Miami-Champaign-
853 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Ohio and west central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A strong low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes will
produce gusty winds this evening. Southeast winds will gust in the
30 to 40 mph range at times through midnight. After this, a line of
convection west of the area may hold together to produce strong to
severe thunderstorms, as well as heavy rainfall for a heightened
risk of localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

KYZ099-100-OHZ046-053>056-061>065-071>074-078>082-088-290100-
Mason-Lewis-Delaware-Clark-Madison-Franklin-Licking-Montgomery-
Greene-Fayette-Pickaway-Fairfield-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-
Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
853 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, northern
Kentucky, central Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west
central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A line of thunderstorms west of the area will move east overnight,
and could affect the region between midnight and daybreak with strong
winds and heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
732 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 ESE Versailles        39.05N 85.20W
04/27/2026                   Ripley             IN   911 Call Center

            Tree down on E 125 S.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
804 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

OHZ026-034-035-042>044-280300-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-
Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, New Bremen, Minster, Greenville, Sidney,
and Bellefontaine
804 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...Gusty Non-Thunderstorm Winds This Evening...

Wind gusts of 35 to 50 MPH will be possible over the next few
hours. These winds will occur separately from any rain or
thunderstorms. Winds of this magnitude may damage small tree limbs
and make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

HATZOS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
808 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

KYZ094-280045-
Owen KY-
808 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT OWEN COUNTY THROUGH 845 PM
EDT...

At 808 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near New Castle,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Owenton, Monterey, Gratz, Squiresville, Elk Lake, Needmore, New
Columbus, Beechwood, Harmony, Elmer Davis Lake, Long Ridge, and
Natlee.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3836 8487 3838 8490 3842 8488 3843 8493
      3845 8491 3846 8492 3845 8494 3843 8494
      3843 8496 3847 8495 3849 8499 3852 8498
      3851 8503 3852 8503 3856 8501 3864 8478
      3862 8478 3846 8460 3837 8471 3834 8479
TIME...MOT...LOC 0008Z 258DEG 41KT 3842 8509

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1057 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1022 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Hebron             39.04N 84.67W
04/27/2026  M47 MPH          Boone              KY   ASOS

            ASOS station KCVG Cincinnati/Northern
            Kentucky International Airport.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1100 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ090>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080-280500-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Licking-
Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-
Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Including the cities of Richmond, Connersville, Liberty,
West College Corner, Brookville, Batesville, Milan, Versailles,
Osgood, Bright, Lawrenceburg, Hidden Valley, Greendale, Aurora,
Dillsboro, Rising Sun, Vevay, Warsaw, Florence, Burlington,
Oakbrook, Covington, Erlanger, Independence, Newport,
Fort Thomas, Highland Heights, Bellevue, Dayton, Alexandria,
Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater, Wapakoneta, St. Marys,
New Bremen, Minster, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
Marysville, Delaware, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, Urbana,
Springfield, London, West Jefferson, Plain City,
Downtown Columbus, Newark, Eaton, Camden, Downtown Dayton,
Kettering, Beavercreek, Fairborn, Xenia, Washington Court House,
Circleville, Lancaster, Pickerington, Hamilton, Middletown,
Fairfield, Oxford, Mason, Lebanon, Landen, Springboro, Franklin,
Wilmington, Blanchester, Chillicothe, Logan, Downtown Cincinnati,
Milford, Summerside, Mount Carmel, Mount Repose, Withamsville,
Mulberry, Day Heights, Georgetown, Mount Orab, Ripley, Aberdeen,
Hillsboro, and Greenfield
1100 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...Gusty Non-Thunderstorm Winds This Evening...

Wind gusts of 35 to 50 MPH will be possible over the next few
hours. These winds will occur separately from any thunderstorms.
Winds of this magnitude may damage small tree limbs and make
driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

INZ080-KYZ089-090-280330-
Switzerland IN-Carroll KY-Gallatin KY-
1103 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF SWITZERLAND...
CARROLL AND WESTERN GALLATIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1130 PM EDT...

At 1103 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Madison,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Hail may cause minor damage to
         vegetation.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Vevay, Pleasant, Fairview, Ghent, Sanders, Worthville,
Prestonville, Braytown, Center Square, Langstaff, Locust, Markland,
Moorefield, Mount Sterling, and Jacksonville.

This includes I-71 in Kentucky between mile markers 39 and 54.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM EDT for
southeastern Indiana...and northern Kentucky.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 3874 8526 3869 8520 3887 8520 3890 8510
      3890 8497 3865 8494 3865 8497 3863 8499
      3863 8501 3862 8502 3859 8512 3858 8521
      3863 8523 3872 8533 3874 8533
TIME...MOT...LOC 0303Z 258DEG 37KT 3869 8542

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Hatzos