Damaging Winds in Kentucky, April 1, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
344 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and thunderstorms continue this afternoon and evening,
  especially along and north of Interstate 64. A few strong to
  severe storms will be possible, with damaging winds and small hail
  being the main threats.

* Breezy and mainly dry conditions are expected Thursday, with wind
  gusts of 25-35 mph expected.

* Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday, with highs in
  the upper 70s and low-to-mid 80s.

* Rain returns Saturday afternoon with cool, dry and calm weather
  expected for early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A weakening cold front extends roughly parallel to the Ohio River
across southern IL, IN, and OH this afternoon. Across this frontal
zone, there is a strong gradient in temperatures and moisture, with
winds also shifting from southwesterly on the warm side of the front
to northeasterly on the cool side of the front. While this gradient
is just north of our southern Indiana counties, short-range model
guidance shows most if not all of our CWA remaining within the warm
sector this afternoon and evening, leading to the potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms.

Within the warm sector, temperatures are expected to rise into the
upper 70s and low 80s this afternoon, with sfc dewpoints progged to
remain in the low-to-mid 60s. While the mid- and upper-level
temperatures should remain relatively warm, this amount of near-sfc
warmth and moisture will be enough for around 1500-2000 J/kg of
MLCAPE to develop during the peak heating hours. With instability
expected to be plentiful, the main limiting factor for convection
this afternoon will be the triggering mechanism which will primarily
be associated with the cold front. Storms have already developed
across southern IN this morning, and as outflow from these storms
combines with the gradual southward push of the cold front,
additional storms will be possible closer to the I-64 corridor.
Farther south in southern KY, there will be almost as much
instability as areas to the north; however, the lack of a well-
defined trigger is expected to limit the coverage of storms this
afternoon and evening.

Looking at the potential for strong to severe storms, while the
instability portion of the parameter space is certainly sufficient
for severe convection, wind shear is less robust, with deep-layer
shear more akin to a late spring or summertime setup than one in
early April. A belt of 40-50 kt of SW flow at 500 mb will gradually
weaken later this afternoon and evening, with deep-layer shear
generally around 25 kt. These values are more marginal for organized
storms, but should be sufficient for a couple strong to severe
storms, especially as you go farther to the north and east.

The primary severe threat this afternoon and evening should be
gusty, possibly damaging straight-line winds in taller/more robust
storms. Since mid-level lapse rates are only expected around 6-6.5
degrees C/km with freezing heights around 10k ft, the thermodynamic
environment will be only marginally supportive for severe hail,
though several taller storms with small hail will be possible. SPC
has included a portion of the CWA in a 2% tornado risk, although
there is considerable uncertainty with this as LCLs are expected to
remain fairly high (1000-1250 m) and llvl wind shear is expected to
be relatively modest. The main time for any strong to severe storms
should be between 2 PM and 8 PM EDT. While showers and storms may
continue into the late evening hours, especially north of I-64,
waning instability and continually weakening shear should curtail
the severe storm threat.

Later tonight, another upper-level trough and near-sfc low pressure
system will eject from SW to NE across the Plains. As it does so,
heights aloft over the Ohio Valley should rise with the remnants of
the sfc cold front expected to lift back to the north toward I-70.
This should lead to a dry second half of the overnight hours, with
a resurgent shot of SW flow expected into Thursday morning.

Tomorrow, the aforementioned upper wave is expected to cut to the
northeast across the upper Mississippi Valley and into the Great
Lakes. Its associated sfc low will follow a similar path, resulting
in the warm sector building back to the north across the Ohio
Valley. A stronger low- and mid-level jet will move mainly to the NW
of the region; however, flow should be strong enough that wind gusts
of 25-35 mph along with scattered 40 mph gusts will be likely as we
mix deeper during the late morning and afternoon hours. Temperatures
will be unseasonably warm again tomorrow, with highs expected in the
low-to-mid 80s.

Thursday night, the cold front will move closer to the region,
though the strongest forcing with the system is expected to be
lifting to the north of the area. As a result, while a few storms
may approach our southern IN counties, the chance for rain and
storms Thursday night continues to look less likely, especially east
of I-65. Temperatures should again be mild with lows in the mid-to-
upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 343 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Friday morning, clouds will linger with spotty showers or storms
before mid morning, with current trends indicating rainfall totals
will most likely (90%) remain under a tenth of an inch. Near record
to record-breaking warm morning lows ranging in the low to mid-60s
are expected. An approaching cold front Friday morning will weaken
and stall as it moves in from the west, meaning that any showers or
storms will be light and short lived. Even though morning showers
will end, moisture advection from the Gulf will keep dewpoints near
60. Boosted by a warm front, a chance of showers or storms can't be
ruled out. Any severe threat will be limited it seems, even noting
the SPC's outlook for Friday with general non-severe storms being
possible. Highs will be well above-normal, ranging from the upper
70s to mid 80s. Clouds linger into the overnight with near record
warm lows possible Saturday morning ranging in the low to mid 60s.

Saturday morning clouds linger still in anticipation of a stronger
cold front that will move in later in the afternoon/evening hours. A
couple showers or storms are possible (<10%), though most rain will
arrive later in the day. Highs on Saturday will remain warm though
western areas may remain cooler than eastern areas if the cold front
moves in earlier, limiting daytime heating potential. Temperatures
will range in the mid 70s west and low 80s in the east, mainly east
of I-65. There's still uncertainty with the timing of the front,
being possible it may not bring showers or storms to areas east of I-
65 until late Saturday night. Rainfall totals seem to be near 0.5 -
0.75", though more is possible if there are embedded storms along
the front. Eventually, the front will clear eastern areas by early
Sunday morning with cooler, drier air moving in place.

With drier air moving in Sunday morning, dewpoints will fall and
feel more like Spring instead of Summer. Skies will clear Sunday
with highs in the mid to upper 50s. Northwest winds and a surface
high pressure will dominate throughout the day and usher in chilly
lows into Monday morning, ranging in the low to mid 40s. The high
pressure sticks around through early next week as well, as highs
remain cooler in the low to mid 60s Monday, then cooling into the
upper 50s again Tuesday afternoon. As long as the high pressure
remains close by through early next week, dry weather will continue
as well.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 156 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across the area
this afternoon, with the greatest coverage between SDF and HNB at
this hour. Given the popcorn-like nature of storms this afternoon
and evening, confidence in timing is relatively low, but a PROB30 or
TEMPO mention of storm chances is included at all sites. Main
impacts from storms would be gusty winds and MVFR/brief IFR VIS in
heavier rain cores. The gradient SW winds should become lighter this
evening and back toward the SE, with VFR conditions expected
overnight tonight. Thursday morning, gusty S/SW winds should return
with sustained 12-18 kt winds with 25-30 kt gusts likely during the
late morning and afternoon.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...CSG
LONG TERM...BKF
AVIATION...CSG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Louisville KY
348 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-022000-
Orange-Washington IN-Scott IN-Jefferson IN-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-
Harrison IN-Floyd-Clark IN-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-
Hardin-Bullitt-Jefferson-Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-
Scott KY-Harrison KY-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford-Fayette-Bourbon-
Nicholas-Nelson-Washington KY-Mercer-Jessamine-Clark KY-Larue-Marion-
Boyle-Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-
Lincoln-Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-
Russell-Cumberland-Clinton-
348 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 /248 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Indiana
and central Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue this
afternoon and evening before diminishing after sunset. Gusty winds
will be the main threat with any stronger storms, with small hail
also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

Storms this afternoon and evening will move from southwest to
northeast at 25 to 35 mph.

Any users of this storm motion must be aware that thunderstorm activity
can be erratic and constantly evolving.  Please use this with caution
and be prepared for changing conditions.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and
climate information can be found, at weather.gov/louisville.

CSG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Louisville KY
430 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 N Shelbyville         38.24N 85.23W
04/01/2026  E60 MPH          Shelby             KY   NWS Employee

            Small branches down with heavy rain, at
            least 60 mph winds.

&&

BS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
430 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KYZ036-039>042-047-048-012130-
Bourbon KY-Mercer KY-Scott KY-Woodford KY-Fayette KY-Jessamine KY-
Anderson KY-
430 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MERCER...
WOODFORD...SOUTHERN SCOTT...NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON...NORTHWESTERN
JESSAMINE...SOUTHWESTERN BOURBON AND NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTIES
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 430 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Versailles, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Georgetown, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Meadowthorpe, Dunbar
High School, Thoroughbred Acres, Cardinal Hill, Northland, and
Highlands.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3790 8481 3805 8493 3832 8450 3809 8432
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 238DEG 31KT 3802 8480

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
433 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KYZ033>035-012115-
Shelby KY-Henry KY-Franklin KY-
433 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN SHELBY...
SOUTHEASTERN HENRY AND NORTHERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM
EDT...

At 433 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shelbyville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Eminence, Pleasureville, Gratz, North Pleasureville,
Elmburg, Elmville, Old Christianburg, Defoe, and Hooper.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3849 8499 3847 8495 3844 8496 3843 8496
      3843 8494 3846 8494 3846 8492 3845 8491
      3844 8493 3842 8488 3838 8489 3837 8487
      3836 8487 3834 8479 3835 8475 3834 8474
      3833 8474 3814 8523 3830 8535 3852 8498
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 238DEG 31KT 3826 8521

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
444 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KYZ053-063-064-012115-
Hart KY-Larue KY-Green KY-
444 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL GREEN...
SOUTHWESTERN LARUE AND EASTERN HART COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT/415
PM CDT/...

At 444 PM EDT/344 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm near Munfordville, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Munfordville, Hudgins, Lobb, Magnolia, Pike View, Bunnell Crossing,
Woodsonville, Jonesville, Hardyville, and Linwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3721 8581 3727 8593 3747 8574 3730 8554
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 229DEG 21KT 3727 8582

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CSG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
457 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KYZ032-033-012115-
Henry KY-Trimble KY-
457 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN HENRY COUNTY THROUGH 515
PM EDT...

At 457 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New Castle, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
New Castle, Pendleton, Campbellsburg, Smithfield, Port Royal, Drennon
Springs, Lacie, Delville, Turners Station, and Sulphur.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3856 8506 3857 8504 3856 8501 3855 8500
      3855 8501 3851 8503 3851 8501 3852 8500
      3852 8498 3836 8525 3846 8533 3858 8518
      3860 8508
TIME...MOT...LOC 2057Z 238DEG 49KT 3843 8519

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
459 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

KYZ028-029-045-012145-
Bullitt KY-Nelson KY-Hardin KY-
459 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN NELSON...CENTRAL
BULLITT AND NORTHEASTERN HARDIN COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM EDT...

At 459 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Elizabethtown, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Elizabethtown, Bardstown, Shepherdsville, Radcliff, Mount Washington,
Vine Grove, Lebanon Junction, Highgrove, Bardstown Junction, and
Hobbs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3802 8551 3801 8551 3798 8547 3787 8539
      3767 8586 3782 8598 3808 8556 3808 8555
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 237DEG 36KT 3779 8584

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MJ