NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 22, 3:04 AM CST, 53 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Mar 22, 3:04 AM CST, 53 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
304 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Front moves early this morning, bringing cooler temperatures,
isolated gusts up to 60 MPH, and patchy blowing dust.
- Above normal temperatures and fire weather concerns continue
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026
This morning, a cold front from the incoming low pressure
system is entering the CWA. This will provide a fairly rapid
wind shift to be coming from the north, and increase wind
speeds. Sustained winds of 15-25 kts, frequent gusts up to 35-40
kts, and isolated gusts up to 50 kts are expected with this
front. The strongest winds being in the eastern CWA. While RH
values will have climbed above critical criteria, this sudden
wind shift will lead to erratic fire behavior for any ongoing or
smoldering fires. By 9Z, RH values are forecast to have rebound
enough to eliminate critical fire weather RH parameters. With
that in mind, the Red Flag Warning is still on schedule to
expire at 9Z. We could also see some patchy blowing dust with
the stronger wind gusts overnight. There is also a ~10% chance
of isolated sprinkles and low stratus following the front,
around sunrise.
Today, an 850 mb high coming out of the northern Rockies will keep
winds from the north-northeast gusting around 20-30 kts, gradually
weakening as the day progresses. This will bring in cooler
temperatures and slightly increasing dew points. Combined, this will
keep RH values above 25%, eliminating any fire weather threat.
Tonight, our flow aloft will have become slightly more zonal, with a
weak shortwave pushing through. This is leading to a 10-20% chance
of some light scattered showers. This potential is heavily limited
by the 850 mb high moving over the same area at the same time,
likely negating the 500 mb vorticity and leading to no
precipitation. Overnight lows will be cooler, dropping into the 30s.
Monday, as the high exits to the east, we will get southerly return
flow. The return flow will prompt WAA and allow temperatures to warm
into the mid 60s to low 70s. The flow from the exiting high looks to
be strong enough to produce sustained winds in the 15-25 kts range
and gusts up to 30-40 kts. Thankfully, RH values look to remain
around 20%, so the threat for critical fire weather conditions is
low. The breezy conditions are likely to persist overnight as
surface pressure rises look to continue until around 6Z. These
southerly, breezy conditions and partly to mostly cloudy skies will
work to keep temperatures in the upper 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Tuesday and Wednesday remain forecast to be under the influence of
an upper ridge that is positioned over the southwest. With low level
flow generally from the south or west, we should see warm air
advection and warm back up. Temperatures in the 80s and 90s are
forecast with Wednesday being the warmer of the two days. With
current GEFS 850mb temperature spreads including 30C, there is the
chance that Wednesday could have very similar temperatures to this
past Saturday. The forecast highs in the 90s are already near or
above the record high temperatures for the day. There are low
concerns for critical fire weather conditions due to the very dry
conditions. Similar to this last week though, the broad surface
pressure gradient and the upper ridge are forecast to generally keep
winds on the lighter side. But we'll have to watch and see if parts
of Eastern Colorado can mix deeply and reach winds above 20 kts.
A system is still forecast to move through the area late Wednesday
and into early Thursday. Ensemble members are still showing some
variance in timing, but 70-80% of the members have the system
passing around 3-9am Thursday. With the early passage of the front,
the concerns for dust is fairly low. Temperatures are also forecast
to be lower with 60s and 70s on Thursday and 50s and 60s on
Friday/Saturday. There is the possibility that temperatures could be
cooler if the upper trough drives the system more to the south.
Highs could then be in the 40s with lows in the teens and 20s. For
now, ensemble 500mb spreads are favoring a faster progression east
over more of a dive to the south. In either scenario, we'll have to
watch for critical fire weather conditions with winds a bit breezy
behind the front and dry conditions forecast to remain. The main
inhibitor is that cooler temperatures should keep relative humidity
above 15%.
Going into next weekend, the current suggestion in ensemble spreads
is that we will keep the roller coaster ride rolling with another
ridge moving in, followed by another upper trough. This would allow
us to warm to well above average again before another fall. That
being said, there is some suggestion the next wave could just push
through and prevent an upper ridge from really getting set up and
warming us up next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026
VFR conditions will dominate the period for KGLD and KMCK, but
brief periods of MVFR are possible. For KGLD, trailing the front
around sunrise, there is a 50% chance of seeing broken to
overcast ceilings around 1,000-2,000 feet AGL, brief IFR
ceilings cannot be ruled out. For KMCK, light blowing dust
trailing the front around sunrise is possible. Likely, no or
only brief visibility reductions will be noticed.
The timing in the TAFs for the front's arrival is based on
tracking its current location and speed. As long as it keeps up
its momentum, we guarantee its arrival within 30 minutes, or
it's free. Prepare for gusts generally in the 35 kts range at
KGLD and 40 kts at KMCK, although occasional gusts up to 45-50
kts have a 40% chance of occurring.
Winds will gradually weaken throughout the day. 6-18Z Monday,
scattered light rain is possible across the region.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 145 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026
Record High Temperatures are possible on Wednesday, March 25th.
Goodland, KS: Record high of 85 in 1907, current forecast is 90.
Hill City, KS: Record high of 88 in 1956, current forecast is
91.
McCook, NE: Record high of 88 in 1910, current forecast is 89.
Burlington, CO: Record high of 83 in 1998, current forecast is
90.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...CA
CLIMATE...KAK