Flash Flood and Hail in Kansas, June 18, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
538 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Numerous showers/storms expected early this morning into the
afternoon with isolated severe storms possible

- Thunderstorms are possible again for Friday night, but better
chances for more widespread and potentially severe storms looks to
occur Saturday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Cooler daytime highs will be on tap today with clouds from showers
and storms lingering over the region. Elevated showers/storms are
expected to become more numerous during the early morning hours and
continue into afternoon today. This activity will mainly affect
locations along and south of highway 56 where warm moist advection
at 700mb will be maximized. Favorable elevated CAPE and mid-level
wind shear supports some of the storms becoming strong or severe.
Due to numerous expected showers/storms in closer proximity to
each other this could hinder the stronger storm organization,
therefore any large hail producing storms could be more
isolated. Heavy rainfall is also a risk with the activity for
this morning/afternoon given higher than normal atmospheric
moisture in place. This activity will gradually shift southward
from Kansas into Oklahoma by late this afternoon. Dry weather
conditions look to prevail for tonight into Friday afternoon.
Next round of showers/storms will be possible on Friday night
over central/south central Kansas where 700mb warm advection
begins to increase again. Instability/shear combination is not
as favorable this period for severe weather.

The main period for potential severe weather impacting the area
continues to be focused on Saturday night. Models remain in fairly
good agreement showing low level moist upslope regime becoming
established over western Nebraska/northwest Kansas on Saturday. In
this setup, storms would likely initiate Saturday afternoon
over western Nebraska/northwest Kansas, then grow upscale as
upslope regime becomes enriched with higher precipitable water
and more unstable. Increasing low level jet/moisture transport
looks to feed/lead a forward propagating MCS diving into the
higher instability axis. This scenario would steer the MCS
cluster southeast across much of our CWA Saturday night. Main
hazards at night would transition to damaging winds and heavy
rainfall as the MCS matures and gains strength. This could toss
a wrench into Sunday's forecast especially if the MCS becomes a
large complex that pushes a pronounced outflow boundary well
south of Kansas on Saturday night. Therefore, confidence is low
for Sunday's forecast. Heading into early next week longer
range models are showing a signal that favors more of a quiet
weather pattern versus a stormy weather pattern.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 536 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected to develop
across southern Kansas early this morning. This activity will
linger into the afternoon hours before shifting southward into
Oklahoma. A few of the storms could become strong or severe with
large hail as the main hazard. Winds will remain on the lighter
side from the northeast then switch to a southeast direction
tonight.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...CDJ
AVIATION...CDJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
322 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-190830-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
322 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Kansas,
east central Kansas, south central Kansas and southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible today, mainly for
locations along and south of a line extending from Great Bend to
McPherson to Emporia. Some of these storms could produce dime to
half-dollar size hail, heavy rainfall, and localized flooding
concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms could develop over the area again late Friday
afternoon and night, however The better chances for more widespread
thunderstorms to impact the region are on Saturday night. The
potential for severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and heavy
rainfall is increasing for this Saturday night period. The
thunderstorms could linger into the morning hours on Sunday. Please
continue to watch for updates as we refine the forecast.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=ict