What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 27, 12:16 PM EST, 3 hours 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- 1) Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur into the early evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. 2) An extended period of dry weather will occur from Thursday into at least the early next week with temperatures generally within a few degrees of normal.
Area forecast discussion, May 27, 12:16 PM EST, 3 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
116 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Dropped the Flood Watch across our northern areas.
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur into the
early evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.
2) An extended period of dry weather will occur from Thursday into at
least the early next week with temperatures generally within a few
degrees of normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Mid level circulation evident on radar moving slowly east across
southern Illinois/Indiana attm while a warm front is extending east
from it across southern Ohio.
A fair amount of sun in the warm sector to the south of the front
has allowed for our southern areas to destabilize this afternoon with
ML Capes running in the 1000-1500 J/KG range. Most of the stronger activity
is currently right along the frontal boundary. Expect the
shower/thunderstorm activity to continue to work its way east-
southeast through early evening with some additional scattered
development possible in the warm sector this afternoon. Locally
heavy rainfall will remain the main threat, although a lower end
severe risk will be possible across southern portions of our area
into early evening. The main threat will be damaging winds. However,
a few rotating storms will also be possible, leading to a low end
tornado threat. The best chance for this would be across our
southeast.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
High pressure will remain in place across the region through the
weekend, providing for dry and seasonable conditions.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to sag slowly east-
southeast across the region through early evening. Any thunder
chances should remain south of the I-70 TAF sites, mainly affecting
the southern TAF sites. MVFR to occasional IFR cigs and vsbys will
be possible into early evening before clouds begin to scatter out.
High pressure will build into the region tonight into Thursday. With
mostly clear skies and light winds some MVFR to locally IFR br will
be possible later tonight into early Thursday.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100.
IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.
&&
DISCUSSION...JGL
AVIATION...JGL
Hazardous weather outlook, May 27, 1:00 PM EST, 2 hours 18 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
200 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
OHZ026-034-035-281000-
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-
200 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Ohio.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-
088-281000-
Wayne-Fayette-Union-Franklin-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Switzerland-
Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-
Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Pickaway-Fairfield-
Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-
Adams-Pike-Scioto-
200 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Indiana,
southeast Indiana, northeast Kentucky, northern Kentucky, central
Ohio, south central Ohio, southwest Ohio and west central Ohio.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
OHZ042>046-051>056-281000-
Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin-Licking-
200 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Ohio and west central
Ohio.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Lingering high water issues from the earlier heavy rainfall will
persist into this evening.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
In the hours before
Local storm report, May 27, 1:18 PM EST, 2 hours before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
218 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1100 AM Flood 3 E Choctaw Lake 39.96N 83.43W
05/27/2026 Madison OH 911 Call Center
38 between 29 and 40 closed due to high
water. Road open at 2 PM.
&&Local storm report, May 27, 1:45 PM EST, 1 hour 33 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
245 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0243 PM Flood 6 NW South Charleston 39.88N 83.71W
05/27/2026 Clark OH Emergency Mngr
High water has trapped residents in homes
along South Charleston Pike. Water rescue in
progress.
&&Local storm report, May 27, 2:02 PM EST, 1 hour 16 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
302 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0250 PM Flood 5 WNW Ross 39.33N 84.75W
05/27/2026 Butler OH Trained Spotter
Water running across New London Rd. near
Race Lane.
&&Local storm report, May 27, 2:25 PM EST, 53 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
325 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0248 PM Flood 3 W Ross 39.32N 84.70W
05/27/2026 Butler OH Trained Spotter
Water crossing Morgan-Ross at
Cincinnati-Brookville. Driveway washed out.
&&
JFSpecial weather statement, May 27, 2:46 PM EST, 32 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
346 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
OHZ070-071-077-078-272015-
Hamilton OH-Clermont OH-Warren OH-Butler OH-
346 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
HAMILTON...SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER...NORTHWESTERN CLERMONT AND
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...
At 346 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Springdale,
moving east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning
is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Hamilton, Fairfield, Mason, Norwood, Forest Park,
Sharonville, Blue Ash, Loveland, Springdale, Reading, Montgomery,
North College Hill, Madeira, Wyoming, Milford, Mount Healthy, Deer
Park, Finneytown, and West Chester.
This includes the following Interstates...
I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 8 and 25.
I-75 in Ohio between mile markers 8 and 23.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.
Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3922 8463 3938 8451 3934 8413 3908 8422
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 285DEG 15KT 3928 8446
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
FranksSpecial weather statement, May 27, 3:12 PM EST, 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
412 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
OHZ077-078-272045-
Hamilton OH-Clermont OH-
412 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN HAMILTON AND
NORTHERN CLERMONT COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...
At 412 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Camp Dennison,
moving southeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 45 mph and very heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Visibility will be poor and hydroplaning
is possible.
Locations impacted include...
Cincinnati, Norwood, Sharonville, Blue Ash, Loveland, Reading,
Montgomery, Madeira, Milford, Deer Park, Forestville, Amelia,
Mariemont, Terrace Park, Batavia, Camp Dennison, Remington,
Plainville, Concorde Hills, and Withamsville.
This includes the following Interstates...
I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 5 and 17.
I-75 in Ohio near mile marker 8.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a sturdy building.
Motorists should slow down and use extra caution.
To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.
&&
LAT...LON 3916 8451 3928 8437 3920 8400 3913 8401
3896 8418
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 294DEG 18KT 3921 8431
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
Franks