Flooding and Damaging Wind in Illinois, June 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
611 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated Severe Storms through Thursday: Scattered
  thunderstorms late this afternoon through Thursday evening
  bring a threat of isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail.
  These hazards shift from central Illinois today to areas
  south of Interstate 70 on Thursday.

- Heavy Rainfall and Flooding: Multiple rounds of storms bring a
  heavy rainfall and flood threat from Thursday night through
  Friday night. There is a 75% chance that rainfall totals will
  exceed 2 inches for locations south of Interstate 72.

- Dangerous Heat Next Week: A prolonged period of oppressive
  heat and humidity builds into the region Sunday through
  Wednesday. High confidence exists that daily heat index values
  will consistently exceed 100 degrees across the entire area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

     Through Tonight: Marginal Severe Risk & Convective Trends...

Water vapor imagery this afternoon captures a compact mid-level
shortwave trough pivoting across the upper Mississippi Valley,
forcing an associated cold front into central Wisconsin. Further
south, several subtle shortwave impulses embedded within broad
meridional flow are tracking southeastward toward northern
Illinois and eastern Iowa. This combined forcing will generate
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the local area from
late this afternoon through the evening hours.

The overall outlook for severe weather remains Marginal (Level
1 of 5) due to a few thermodynamic limiting factors.

Thermodynamics & Instability: Boundary layer instability will
peak late this afternoon as surface temperatures climb into the
lower 80s over mid-60s dewpoints. This will yield MLCAPE values
of 15002000 J/kg, extending as far east as the Interstate 55
corridor.

Kinematics: Deep-layer shear will see a modest increase to
around 40 knots (06 km bulk shear) as a 500-mb jet core skirts
the region.

Capping & Lapse Rates: Updraft acceleration will face headwinds
from weak mid-level lapse rates (6C/km) and a notable warm
layer below 500 mb sampled by the 12z ILX sounding.

While the primary synoptic ascent and highest storm coverage
will remain focused to our north and west in closer proximity to
the cold front, there is sufficient mesoscale support for a few
strong to severe cells late today. Elongated and somewhat wavy
hodographs suggest multi-cell structures with isolated damaging
wind gusts and large hail as the primary threats, while the
tornado threat remains negligible. Vigorous multi-cell clusters
should be monitored through mid-evening as far south as the
Interstate 72/Danville corridor before nocturnal stabilization
sets in.

     Thursday: Frontal Progression Shifts Hazards South...

Overnight and into Thursday, the surface cold front is
projected to sag slowly southward through the forecast area.
This spatial progression will compress the severe weather threat
further south, restricting afternoon shower and thunderstorm
potential primarily to areas along and south of the Interstate
70 corridor.

Because boundary layer conditions near this slow- moving
frontal zone are expected to mirror today's environment,
isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will remain possible.
Close monitoring will be required for any robust cells capable
of producing localized damaging wind gusts and large hail.

     Thursday Night through Friday Night: Rainfall & Flooding
Threat...

By Thursday night, the surface front is anticipated to stall
out between the Interstate 70 and Interstate 72 corridors as the
primary upper-level forcing shifts toward the eastern Great
Lakes. The forecast focus will quickly transition to a
heavy rainfall and hydrologic threat along this stationary
boundary. A train of multiple upper-level shortwaves and weak
surface low-pressure systems will traverse the stalled front
from Thursday night through Friday night, interacting with a
deeply saturated tropical airmass.

Precipitation Totals: Latest NBM guidance indicates an
impressive 75% chance of rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches by
Saturday morning along a corridor extending from Pittsfield to
Lawrenceville.

Hydrologic Context: Saturated antecedent soil conditions from
recent active weather will maximize runoff potential, elevating
flash flood and river flooding concerns.

Headlines: Given the high confidence in multi-round convective
rainfall over vulnerable basins, a Flood Watch has been issued
for areas south of I-72 from Thursday afternoon to Saturday
afternoon.

     Saturday through Next Week: Building Heat Dome & Oppressive
Humidity...

Precipitation chances will diminish significantly by Saturday
afternoon as the synoptic pattern undergoes major amplification.
A persistent and highly anomalous upper-level trough digging
over western North America will trigger robust downstream rising
heights, establishing a formidable heat dome directly across
the Midwest.

Temperatures: Daily maximum temperatures will routinely reach
the lower 90s starting Sunday.

Heat Indices: Combined with high ambient humidity and pooling
boundary layer moisture, latest NBM guidance indicates that heat
index values may consistently exceed 100F from Sunday through
Wednesday of next week.

Headlines: This prolonged period of oppressive heat will likely
necessitate a series of Excessive Heat Advisories or Warnings
for the entire region heading into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 611 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

A weak cold front currently draped from south central WI into
southeastern Iowa will slowly advance into central Illinois
overnight. A few isolated to widely scattered storms will be
possible along and ahead of this front this evening into tonight.
Southwest winds currently in place ahead of the front will become
light and variable in the frontal trough, which stalls over the
area and continues to weaken. Outside of the influence of any
showers or storms, VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Thursday afternoon through Saturday afternoon
for ILZ052-054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.

&&

KEY MESSAGES...MJA
DISCUSSION...MJA
AVIATION...Deubelbeiss

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
348 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

ILZ027>031-036>038-040-041-252100-
Knox-Stark-Peoria-Marshall-Woodford-Fulton-Tazewell-McLean-Schuyler-
Mason-
348 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois and west
central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight.
The probability of severe storms is low.

Minor to moderate flooding continues on the Illinois River.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Occasional scattered thunderstorms are possible Thursday through
Saturday. The probability of severe storms is low.

Hot and humid conditions will arrive Sunday and persist into next
week. Minor to moderate heat risk is likely, and these conditions
may lead to heat-related illness in sensitive individuals or those
without access to effective cooling.

Minor to moderate flooding will continue on the Illinois River the
next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

ILZ042>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-252100-
Logan-De Witt-Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Cass-Menard-Scott-Morgan-
Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie-Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-
Cumberland-Clark-Effingham-Jasper-Crawford-Clay-Richland-Lawrence-
348 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Illinois, east
central Illinois, southeast Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through tonight.
The probability of severe storms is low.

Flooding continues along several rivers throughout the area owing to
recent heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Heavy rain and a few severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday
night, and may result in localized flooding. Additional periods of
heavy rainfall and severe storms cannot be ruled out Friday and
Saturday as well.

Hot and humid conditions will arrive Sunday and persist into next
week. Minor to moderate heat risk is likely, and these conditions
may lead to heat-related illness in sensitive individuals or those
without access to effective cooling.

Minor to moderate flooding will continue on several rivers
throughout the area over the next several days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

Deubelbeiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
413 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

ILZ051-052-242200-
Sangamon-Christian-
413 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL CHRISTIAN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL SANGAMON COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 412 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pawnee, or 10 miles northeast of Virden, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pawnee, Kincaid, Edinburg, Tovey, Bulpitt, Sangchris Lake State Park,
and Glenarm.

This includes Interstate 55 between mile markers 81 and 86.

This also includes Sangchris Lake State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3948 8954 3952 8953 3953 8959 3960 8967
      3968 8964 3969 8938 3943 8948
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 287DEG 15KT 3960 8961

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Deubelbeiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
438 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

ILZ052-242215-
Christian-
438 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN CHRISTIAN COUNTY
THROUGH 515 PM CDT...

At 438 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jeisyville, or 8 miles west of Taylorville, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Taylorville, Kincaid, Owaneco, Jeisyville, Palmer, Bulpitt, Willeys,
Sharpsburg, Taylorville Municipal Airport, and Langleyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3949 8947 3963 8942 3962 8911 3937 8927
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 293DEG 19KT 3953 8944

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Deubelbeiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
502 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

ILZ031-242245-
Woodford-
502 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WOODFORD AND
NORTHWESTERN MCLEAN COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 502 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Secor, or near Eureka, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
El Paso, Secor, Kappa, and Panola.

This includes Interstate 39 between mile markers 10 and 19.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4075 8893 4075 8899 4067 8898 4066 8900
      4066 8904 4064 8905 4069 8922 4079 8922
      4081 8893
TIME...MOT...LOC 2202Z 276DEG 16KT 4072 8917

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Deubelbeiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
554 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

ILZ027>029-242330-
Peoria-Knox-Stark-
554 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN STARK...EASTERN
KNOX AND NORTH CENTRAL PEORIA COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 554 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Fayette, or 7 miles southwest of Toulon, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wyoming, Toulon, La Fayette, West Jersey, Duncan, and Monica.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4102 9005 4112 9003 4114 8974 4088 8979
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 287DEG 21KT 4105 8999

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Deubelbeiss

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
656 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

ILZ029>031-037-250045-
Tazewell-Marshall-Peoria-Woodford-
656 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MARSHALL...
NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD...NORTHEASTERN TAZEWELL AND NORTHEASTERN PEORIA
COUNTIES THROUGH 745 PM CDT...

At 656 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Rome, or near Chillicothe, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Peoria, Chillicothe, Washington, Metamora, Germantown Hills, Rome,
Dunlap, Spring Bay, Cazenovia, Bay View Gardens, Mossville, Alta, and
Low Point.

This also includes Marshall State Fish and Wildlife Area, Rock Island
Trail State Park, and Woodford State Fish and Wildlife Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 8974 4096 8944 4086 8917 4066 8940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 299DEG 20KT 4086 8953

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Deubelbeiss

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
720 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     2 W Metamora            40.79N 89.40W
06/24/2026  E55 MPH          Woodford           IL   Emergency Mngr

&&

BMD