A strong Pacific jet brought unseasonably warm conditions ahead of a cold front that caused gusty gradient winds the night of the 17th. Isolated wind gusts between 37-47 mph briefly occurred into the early morning hours of the 18th before diminishing.
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The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
A strong Pacific jet brought unseasonably warm conditions ahead of a cold front that caused gusty gradient winds the night of the 17th. Isolated wind gusts between 37-47 mph briefly occurred into the early morning hours of the 18th before diminishing. Large tree limbs were brought down locally.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 17, 5:07 PM CST, 1 hour 53 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 507 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - There is a 15-25% chance of light rain showers tonight mainly north of the Ohio River. - Unsettled weather is expected on Thursday with a 40-70% chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. The risk of severe weather is a level 2/5, particularly in the Evansville Tri-State Region where damaging winds, isolated tornadoes, and possibly some hail will all be possible. - Temperatures trend much cooler this weekend with a 35-45% chance of light rain on Saturday that may mix with or end as a light wet snow Saturday evening, followed by below normal temperatures Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 102 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 A highly amplified synoptic pattern with a 160 kt Pacific jet will persist into the latter half of the week, allowing for an influx of unseasonably warm and moist air. 850 mb WAA advection ramps up tonight, and may provide enough isentropic lift to squeeze out an isolated sprinkle or light rain shower. The probability of measurable precipitation is only 15-25% with most of the FA likely only experiencing more of a mist from the low status that will be in place. Winds will also be breezy out of the southwest with gusts between 20-30 mph as the pressure gradient tightens. Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will be unseasonably warm with highs ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s. By 12z Thursday, an elongated 500 mb trough will be located over the western CONUS while sfc low pressure in the central Plains will begin to lift northeast towards the Great Lakes region with a cold front. Inside the warm sector, dewpoints across the FA rise into the upper 50s to near 60 degrees, translating to about 500 J/kg of MLCAPE during the afternoon and evening hours. Combined with robust sfc-6km shear of 70-80 kts, the parameters support the potential for a few strong to severe storms. The greatest concern is north of the Ohio River from the Wabash Valley into the Evansville Tri-State region. There still remains some uncertainty in the storm mode, but the overall consensus is for discrete supercells to quickly grow upscale into linear line segments that will pose the risk of damaging winds and isolated tornados with sfc-1 km shear of 20-25 kts. Given mid-level lapse rates around 7.0 C/km and a low WBZ around 750-725 mb, some hail cannot be ruled as well. The ECMWF EFI for CAPE-Shear ranges from 0.7 to 0.9 which typically translates to increasing confidence in an anomalous event that is supported by the aformentioned unseasonably warm temperatures. Overall, some severe weather remains a concern for Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening, but spatial coverage for the PAH CWA may be confined more to the northeast counties where SPC maintains a slight risk in their D3 convective outlook. Temperatures cool back down into the 50s behind the cold front on Friday, with below normal values returning by Sunday as a 500 mb trough digs into the eastern CONUS. 850 mb temps plummet 20 degrees over the weekend with values around -10C by Sunday and Monday translating to highs back in the upper 30s to lower 40s with lows in the 20s. In the wake of a secondary cold front Saturday, there is a 35-45% chance of light rain that may end as some light snow on the backside. However, mean NBM probabilities of snow are only around 20%. Even if snow does occur, impacts from accumulation are unlikely due to poor SLRs Saturday evening. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 503 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 MVFR cigs remain in place through tomorrow morning, though CGI, PAH, and MVN may dip down to IFR. Tomorrow the stratus deck will start to erode from the northwest towards the southeast. Winds will be elevated out of the south and southwest overnight with gusts to around 20-25 kts. Winds will then decrease through the day tomorrow. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && DISCUSSION...DW AVIATION...HICKFORD
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 104 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-181915- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 104 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026 /204 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast Thursday afternoon and evening. Some of these storms may become severe, with tornadoes and damaging winds being the main threats. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Thursday afternoon and evening. DW
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Large tree limb down.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2026Every state in 2026This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, February 2026
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1316439, 1316440.