Damaging Winds in Illinois, April 23, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
628 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...Updated for 00z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a Slight (level 2 out of 5) risk for severe weather
  late this afternoon/evening west of a line from Dubuque to
  Keokuk. Damaging wind will be the primary threat, with a few
  stripes of heavy rainfall.

- Dry weekend, with a return of active weather early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A breezy mild day continues over eastern Iowa, Missouri and
Illinois this afternoon, with dry weather lasting into early
afternoon so far. There is a mid level thete-e advection axis
just west of our CWA, which has been associated with a few
flare-ups of showers and weak thunderstorms since this morning
over central Iowa. This is the feature we will follow for
afternoon development as it slowly works into our western CWA.
While our atmosphere remains weakly capped over the east 1/2 per
our 18Z sounding, farther west, this weak capping is expected
to give way to scattered storms this afternoon, with coverage
remaining low, but in general the highest probability in our
western 1/3 of the CWA. CAPE values of 1200 to 2000 are found
over eastern Iowa, with 0-3km shear values under 20kts, mid
level lapse rates around 7C/km, and PWATs of 1 to 1.25" this
afternoon in Iowa. This combination will allow for some
scattered strong, to lower end severe storms at times through
early evening.

To our west, the front is located near the Missouri river, with the
main low pressure found near southern Manitoba, and secondary low
pressure along the front found near southwest Kansas. Thunderstorms,
some severe, have formed from near Omaha NE northward to southwest
Minnesota as of 130 PM.  This frontal zone to our west is expected
to become the primary convection focus through 8 PM to our west, but
after that time, both the front's progression east and cold pool
mergers to our west (becoming a line of storms), will help spread
storms east  into eastern Iowa and northeast Missouri between 8 PM
and 10 PM. From 10 PM to 6 AM, this line is expected to move through
our entire area, with a weakening in intensity both due to a loss of
CAPE,  and increasing speed of the line, resulting in tilting of
updrafts to the cool side of the boundary, that nearly always causes
the line to begin to bubble/fester east rather than remain solid.

As this line arrives later tonight, wind gusts are the primary
threat, with a lower end severe weather threat supported by the
mature line, but weakening instability, combined with a stabilizing
boundary layer. SPC's outlook generally supports this transition as
well.

Rainfall this afternoon through tonight, will be heavy, but
rather spotty in nature, with some stripes of 1"+ in our west,
and mainly amounts under 0.5" in the east 1/2.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

An upper level low over south-central Canada will bring seasonable
conditions and additional precipitation chances through next
week before moving to the east.

Some showers and thunderstorms will linger through Friday
morning as the cold front continues to move through the region.
Following the frontal passage, Friday afternoon and Saturday
will be clear and dry due to subsidence associated with the
500mb jet around the upper level trough. Highs are expected to
remain a few degrees above normal at around 70 degrees.

The next chances for precipitation will come Sunday into Monday as
an embedded shortwave translates through the upper level flow.
At this point, the greatest uncertainty lies in the track of the
associated surface low. Current ensemble mean forecasts place
the surface low over eastern Iowa, though some members have it
as far west as the IA-NE border. Where this low tracks will
determine the precipitation footprint and instability. The
eastern low scenario, such as seen in the deterministic GFS, has
a plume of IVT up to 500 kg m-1 s-1 advecting into northeast
MO/west-central IL while the axis of greatest IVT remains
southwest along the IL-KY border. This results in lower QPF
totals across the region. In a western low scenario, such as
seen in the deterministic ECMWF, QPF increases across the area.
While the spread in QPF is still quite large with these
scenarios, ensemble means suggest that at least 0.5 inches of
rain will be likely (70% chance) area-wide. Similar to QPF,
instability will depend on the track of the low. With an eastern
low, the axis of greatest MUCAPE is pushed east of the area,
while a western low allows for MUCAPE to peak along the MO-IA
border into eastern Iowa. Together, these give two potential
scenarios: an eastern low that has reduced QPF and thunderstorm
chances and a western low with enhanced QPF and thunderstorm
chances.

After this embedded shortwave passes through Monday night, zonal
flow will return along the southern edge of the upper low. The 500mb
jet will remain to the north, leading to broad synoptic
subsidence Tuesday and Wednesday. This will allow for another
dry and clear period, with temperatures remaining seasonable for
late April.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 620 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Predominantly VFR to MVFR through the period, with a chance of
some IFR in storms (visibility) and low clouds with a cold
front.

Initially through 03z we will continue to see scattered showers
and a few storms across the area, which has been handled with
PROB30 mention. A line of storms approaching I-35 in central
Iowa will move eastward and across the terminals roughly in the
03z-07z timeframe. This line will be gradually weakening, but could
produce sporadic damaging gusts to 50 kt with this potential
being highest near to west of KCID. Wind gusts elsewhere with
the line of storms may be in the range of 30-45kt from a
westerly direction. Prior to the arrival of this line, winds
will be occasionally gusty from the south to 25-30+ kt. After
the line passes, rain with some thunder may persist for 2+ hours
before waning. Lower clouds with mainly lower MVFR ceilings will
develop along and after a cold frontal passage 07z-12z with a
low chance for IFR. This will be accompanied by a wind shift to
the northwest with gusts to 20 kt. Eventually this will usher in
drier air and a return of VFR conditions by mid morning through
early afternoon on Friday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Record High Temperatures:

April 23:
KBRL: 84/1960

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ellingworth
AVIATION...McClure
CLIMATE...Gross

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
207 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-241915-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
207 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

There is a Slight, or a level 2 out of 5 risk for severe weather
tonight along and west of a line from Cascade Iowa, to Muscatine,
to Donnellson Iowa. The primary hazards will be damaging wind and
isolated tornadoes.

Scattered thunderstorms, some possibly strong are expected this
afternoon in eastern Iowa and far northeast Missouri. Later this
evening, a widespread round of thunderstorms is expected to arrive
from central Iowa and move across the entire area. This line of
storms may bring severe wind gusts, lightning, and heavy rain. As
the storms move east of the Mississippi River around midnight,
they are expected to weaken.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening.

ERVIN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
753 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

IAZ051-063-240130-
Iowa IA-Benton IA-
753 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Iowa and
southwestern Benton Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 752 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Millersburg, or 13 miles southwest of Marengo, moving north at 45
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could break small tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Marengo, Williamsburg, Victor, Blairstown, Norway, Ladora,
Millersburg, Luzerne, Conroy, South Amana, West Amana, Lake Iowa
Park, Upper South Amana, Genoa Bluff, Hannen Lake Park, Watkins,
Koszta, Iowa County Fairgrounds, and High Amana.

This includes Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 205 and 220.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4174 9230 4196 9222 4189 9188 4151 9211
      4156 9230
TIME...MOT...LOC 0052Z 200DEG 39KT 4164 9221

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Uttech

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
755 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

IAZ051-052-240130-
Linn IA-Benton IA-
755 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...An area of heavy rain will impact portions of western Linn and
southeastern Benton Counties through 830 PM CDT...

At 754 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking heavy rain over Hiawatha,
or near Cedar Rapids, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could break small tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Rapids, Marion, Hiawatha, Robins, Center Point, Fairfax,
Atkins, Central City, Palo, Shellsburg, Walker, Alburnett, Coggon,
Toddville, Troy Mills, Paris, Buffalo Creek Park, Pleasant Creek
State Recreation Area, Linn  County Fairgrounds, and Pinicon Ridge
Park.

This includes Interstate 380 between mile markers 22 and 40.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4230 9182 4229 9141 4189 9176 4193 9193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0054Z 200DEG 39KT 4204 9174

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Uttech

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
816 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

IAZ063-064-076-077-240145-
Keokuk IA-Iowa IA-Washington IA-Johnson IA-
816 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Keokuk,
southeastern Iowa, northwestern Washington and west central Johnson
Counties through 845 PM CDT...

At 816 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Harper, or 8 miles east of Sigourney, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could break small tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wellman, North English, South English, Parnell, Harper, Kinross,
Keota, Frytown, Amish, Holbrook, Lancaster, and Talleyrand.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4121 9194 4129 9219 4165 9202 4160 9171
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 200DEG 39KT 4134 9204

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Uttech

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
837 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

IAZ040-041-052-053-240215-
Linn IA-Buchanan IA-Delaware IA-Jones IA-
837 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Linn,
southeastern Buchanan, Delaware and northwestern Jones Counties
through 915 PM CDT...

At 836 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Masonville to near Marion. Movement was
north at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Minor flooding from heavy rainfall.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Slowing or redirecting of traffic due to ponding or flowing
         water.

Locations impacted include...
Cedar Rapids, Manchester, Marion, Hiawatha, Dyersville, Robins,
Central City, Palo, Earlville, Alburnett, Coggon, Hopkinton, Delhi,
Ryan, Greeley, Prairieburg, Delaware, Toddville, Troy Mills, and
Waubeek.

This includes Interstate 380 between mile markers 19 and 34.

Rainfall amounts of 0.50 to 1.50 inches have fallen and up to an
additional inch is possible.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4247 9113 4193 9161 4205 9183 4258 9151
      4262 9113
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 198DEG 36KT 4243 9158 4207 9157

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Uttech

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
846 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

IAZ076-077-240215-
Keokuk IA-Washington IA-
846 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Keokuk
and western Washington Counties through 915 PM CDT...

At 846 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brighton, or 10 miles southwest of Washington, moving north at 40
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could break small tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Kalona, Wellman, Riverside, Brighton, Richland, Richmond,
Keota, West Chester, Lake Darling State Park, Talleyrand, Washington
County Fairgrounds, and Rubio.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4151 9191 4151 9155 4116 9179 4116 9204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0146Z 198DEG 36KT 4123 9187

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Uttech

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
905 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

IAZ064-077-240230-
Washington IA-Johnson IA-
905 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Washington
and central Johnson Counties through 930 PM CDT...

At 905 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Richmond, or 9 miles north of Washington, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Strong winds could break small tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Iowa City, Coralville, North Liberty, Kalona, Tiffin, Wellman,
University Heights, Riverside, Hills, Oakdale, Richmond, Iowa City
Municipal Airport, Frytown, Windham, Johnson County Fairgrounds,
Hills Access, Cosgrove, Amish, F.W. Kent  Park, and University Of
Iowa.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 234 and 253.
 Interstate 380 between mile markers 1 and 3.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
southeastern and east central Iowa.

&&

LAT...LON 4177 9173 4169 9137 4159 9137 4129 9158
      4137 9186
TIME...MOT...LOC 0205Z 209DEG 39KT 4143 9169

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Uttech