Drought in Illinois, April 1 to 7, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening ahead
  of a strong cold front with falling temps behind the front.

- Possible very windy Thursday with southerly winds gusting
  40-45 mph.

- Possible strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a cold front
  Thursday afternoon/evening.

- An active pattern will continue through Saturday with periods
  of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The cold front has moved into far northern IL and will continue
moving south across the area through this evening. Winds will
shift northerly behind the front, more northeasterly near Lake
Michigan, with temperatures falling into the 40s, and likely
into the 30s near Lake Michigan.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage as the cold front moves across the area. There remains
quite a bit of uncertainty for the potential for additional
severe thunderstorms and the most favored area appears to be
along and south of I-80 through early/mid evening. While a line
of showers and thunderstorms behind the front across southern WI
is expected to move across the area, this activity is not
expected to be severe. Latest model trends would suggest that
the precipitation well end completely for areas north of I-80
tonight with perhaps scattered activity continuing overnight
across the southern half or third of the area. This
precipitation may continue into Wednesday morning, again for
areas south of I-80 but overall, the northern half or so of the
area is looking dry through midday Wednesday with precipitation
chances increasing Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as
the cold front lifts back north as a warm front. Confidence
remains low for timing and coverage of activity Wednesday night
into Thursday morning. Blended pops are generally in the 70-100%
range and while this is plausible, the timing/duration will
likely be considerably shorter and later forecasts will be able
to narrow down these chances

Precipitation should end sometime Thursday morning as the warm
front lifts north of the area. Strong southerly winds are
expected to develop with gusts into the 40-45 mph range
possible, which would be approaching wind advisory criteria if
these winds do materialize. High temperatures are likely to warm
well into the 70s on Thursday.

A cold front will move through the area late Thursday afternoon
into Thursday evening with showers and thunderstorms expected
along/ahead of this front. Day 3 outlook has level 2 for severe
storms across the southeast two thirds of the area and this
looks on track. Thursday night into Friday appears to be a short
break in the precipitation with another period of showers and
thunderstorms Friday night into Saturday ahead of another strong
cold front that is expected to move across the area Saturday.
Colder air will spread across the area for Sunday/Monday and the
models are now showing another clipper like system and possible
precipitation Monday night. cms

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Forecast concerns for the terminals...

- Period of VFR conditions early before ceilings lower back to
  MVFR late tonight/early Wednesday morning.

- 20-30% chance for some light rain/drizzle Wednesday afternoon
  at the Chicago area terminals.

- Widespread showers return Wednesday evening as a warm front
  lifts through the area.

- Breezy northeast winds around 20-25 kts through the TAF
  period.

The main frontal zone has stalled across I-70 in central IL and
IN this evening. However, a weak shortwave is traversing across
northern MO which has continued to spawn scattered showers and
thunderstorms across MO, southern IA, and north central IL/IN.
While these showers/storms are expected to remain well south of
the terminals tonight, there is a cluster of showers in
southwest IA that could brush areas near I-80 towards daybreak
if they hold together. Since it is low confidence as to whether
or not these showers will make it have opted to maintain dry
TAFs through tonight.

Ceilings this evening have scattered out to VFR and based on
upstream observations over Lake Michigan it appears they should
stay that way until after 09z when the MVFR clouds over Lower MI
ooze back in. The exception however, will be at RFD where a
plume of IFR-lower MVFR ceilings will be moving through for the
next 1-2 hours before conditions return VFR. Once the MVFR
ceilings return later they are expected to prevail through the
remainder of the forecast period.

Wednesday looks to overall be a dry day for us, but there is
still a 20-30% chance for some light rain showers/drizzle to
develop during the afternoon and move across the Chicago area
terminals and points south. Given the moisture depths on recent
forecast soundings continue to look marginal have opted to
maintain the PROB30s for this potential for now. Regardless, a
better coverage of rain showers is expected lift over the
terminals Wednesday evening as the aforementioned frontal zone
to our south moves back through the area as a warm front.
Therefore, a long duration period of rain is forecast for
Wednesday night resulting in reduced visibilities and lower
MVFR ceilings with a chance for a period of more convective
showers late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
Confidence on the coverage of these more convective showers is
still a bit low but there was a sufficient signal in latest
guidance to warrant the introduction of a TEMPO for IFR
visibilities and ceilings at the 30-hour sites.

Aside from all the low clouds and rain, breezy northeast winds
are expected to prevail through the period with gusts around
20-25 kts.

Yack

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the IL
     and IN nearshore waters.

&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL
755 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

ILZ003>006-008-010>013-019>021-023-032-033-039-103>108-INZ001-002-
010-011-019-020100-
Winnebago-Boone-McHenry-Lake IL-Ogle-Lee-De Kalb-Kane-DuPage-
La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Kankakee-Livingston-Iroquois-Ford-
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-Northern Will-
Southern Will-Eastern Will-Lake IN-Porter-Newton-Jasper-Benton-
755 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026 /855 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated Thunderstorm Risk...south of I-80 and east of
   I-57 this evening.
  Limited Flooding Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to affect areas south and
southeast of the Chicago area this evening. Some of these storms
may produce small hail and isolated wind gusts to 40 mph. Brief
heavy downpours are also likely with these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
  Limited Flooding Risk.
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Thursday...
  Limited Flooding Risk.
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Level 2 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
  Elevated Non Thunderstorm Wind Risk.
Friday...
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Saturday...
  Limited Flooding Risk.
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible at times Wednesday night
through the end of the week along with periods of heavy rain and
localized flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be necessary through tonight.

GENERAL STORM MOTION OF THE DAY:

  Moving toward the east at around 35 mph.

LMZ740>745-020100-
Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL-
Wilmette Harbor to Northerly Island IL-
Northerly Island to Calumet Harbor IL-
Calumet Harbor IL to Gary IN-Gary to Burns Harbor IN-
Burns Harbor to Michigan City IN-
755 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Illinois
nearshore waters of Lake Michigan and the Indiana nearshore
waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Hazardous conditions for small craft.
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk along the Indiana shore this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Wednesday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Thursday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk...with an associated:
     Level 2 of 5 Severe Thunderstorm Risk.
Friday and Saturday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.
  Limited Thunderstorm Risk.
Sunday and Monday...
  Hazardous conditions for small craft are likely.

Ratzer

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