Wildfire in Georgia, March 29 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
716 AM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https:/www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

- Hazardous Marine and Surf Conditions Continue through Monday. High
Rip Current Risk & High Surf Advisory Today at All Area Beaches.
Small Craft Advisories throughout Our Local Atlantic Waters through
Tonight

- Isolated Afternoon TStorms Possible Mon through Sat, Mainly Inland

- Patchy to Areas of Locally Dense Fog at Inland Locations Possible
Each

- Morning from Tuesday through Friday

- Extreme to Exceptional Drought Conditions Continue Area-Wide

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Main Highlights through Sunday Night:

- Hazardous Marine and Coastal Conditions Prevail. A High Rip
Current Risk and High Surf Advisories Will Continue at All Area
Beaches.

Early morning surface analysis depicts strong high pressure (1035
millibars) centered near the Chesapeake Bay, with this feature
wedging down the southeastern seaboard. Meanwhile, the strong cold
front that passed southward through our region on Saturday morning
was slowing its forward progress across south FL. Otherwise, coastal
troughing remains positioned over the near shore waters adjacent to
northeast FL, where this feature was generating widely scattered
light showers and sprinkles that were occasionally moving onshore
along the northeast FL coastal counties. Aloft...troughing was
shifting eastward off the Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts,
allowing ridging positioned over Texas and the western Gulf to
expand east-southeastward across the central and southeastern Gulf.
Latest GOES-East derived Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates
that a much drier air mass remains situated north of the Okefenokee
Swamp in southeast GA, where PWAT values were generally in the 0.5 -
0.75 inch range. Values elsewhere remain in the 1 - 1.25 inch range.
Isentropic lift / overrunning ongoing to the north of the stalling
frontal boundary over south FL was creating a wide swath of stratus
and marine stratocumulus cloud cover that blankets areas south of
Alma, GA. Fair skies prevail within the drier air mass for locations
near the Altamaha and Ocmulgee Rivers in interior southeast GA.
Temperatures across southeast GA and northern portions of the
Suwannee Valley at 07Z were in the 50s, with dewpoints in the low to
mid 40s for inland locations. Temperatures elsewhere were generally
in the lower 60s, with dewpoints mostly in the 50s.

Strong high pressure situated near the Chesapeake Bay will gradually
shift eastward today, with this feature continuing to wedge down the
southeastern seaboard and keeping a tight local pressure gradient in
place across our area through early this evening. Windy conditions
will continue at coastal locations, where speeds should remain just
below Wind Advisory criteria, as winds sustained at 15-20 mph
occasionally gust to 30-35 mph through the mid-afternoon hours.
Breezy conditions will prevail at inland locations through late this
afternoon, with occasional gusts of 25-30 mph forecast today.
Meanwhile, coastal troughing will remain in place over the northeast
FL waters. This feature will continue to generate widely scattered
showers over the northeast FL Atlantic waters. A few showers or
sprinkles will be possible today for coastal St. Johns and Flagler
Counties.

Onshore winds and isentropic lift / overrunning ongoing to the north
of the stalled frontal boundary over south FL will tend to keep
widespread marine stratocumulus as well as some pockets of lower
stratus cloud cover in place through the early to mid-afternon hours
today, with breaks in this cloud cover developing during the mid to
late afternoon hours at inland locations. Otherwise, ridging aloft
building southeastward across the Gulf will allow heights to rise
slowly today, and breaks in the afternoon cloud cover inland should
allow highs to climb to the 70-75 degree range for areas west of I-
95. Strong onshore winds and mostly cloudy skies will likely keep
highs in the upper 60s to near 70 today for locations along and east
of I-95.

Cloud cover will continue to diminish overnight for inland locations
as winds gradually diminish, while a slowly diminishing onshore
breeze keeps a stream of marine stratocumulus in place overnight
along the I-95 corridor. Veering low level flow may shove the
coastal trough closer to the northeast FL coast towards sunrise on
Monday, possibly generating scattered coastal showers for locations
along and east of I-95. Lows will fall to the low to mid 50s for
inland southeast GA, ranging to the lower 60s for coastal locations
and inland north central FL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Rough Surf and Rip currents Persist into Monday

- Isolated Showers across SE GA and Scattered Showers across NE FL
Monday and Tuesday Afternoons.

- Isolated T'storm potential Monday and Tuesday Afternoon.

Monday, a west to west northwest flow pattern in the mid to upper
levels will be in place over the southeast states and into northern
FL as ridging develops over the eastern Gulf/southern FL south into
Cuba. However, low level ridging shifting east off the southeast US
coast will bring weak south to southeasterly flow and enough low
level moisture that diurnal heating along with veering winds in the
low levels will develop widely scattered showers in the afternoon
hours. While some drier air will be present in the mid levels, an
isolated T'storm is possible as the Atlantic seabreeze moves inland
towards I-75 in FL and US221/US441 in SE GA. More numerous showers
expected south of Gainesville as more moisture pools over north
central and central FL. Highs will be warmest across inland NE FL
and north central FL with low 80s along and west of I-75 while SE GA
areas and eastern NE FL areas rise to the upper 70s to low 70s at
the immediate coast from easterly onshore flow. Winds will be 10-15
from the east and gusting to 25 mph at the coast after seabreeze
passage.

Tuesday, low level ridging will press east southeastward and center
closer to Bermuda with a surface ridge axis extending across the
area. Surface winds will become southeasterly Monday night into
Tuesday peaking 10-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph at the coast as
the Atlantic seabreeze moves onshore and pushes well inland towards
western zones. Similar to Monday, low level moisture, diurnal
heating and low level veering winds will develop widely scattered
showers with an isolated T'storm potential in the afternoon more
so towards I-75 where stronger heating and Gulf/Atlantic
seabreeze interactions could spur stronger updrafts. Highs will
be a few degrees warmer with mid 80s along and west of I-75, low
80s east to I-95 and then cooler in the upper 70s at the
immediate coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Main Highlights This Period:

- Mainly dry weather to continue Midweek, with above normal
temperatures into next weekend.
- Patchy Nightly Fog, locally Dense inland Wednesday night
- Slight Chance of Inland Thunderstorms Friday and this weekend

Only widely isolated showers and T'storms expected to begin the
period Wednesday mostly focused inland along and north of I-10 as
weak instability develops in southwesterly flow in the mid levels,
but otherwise Bermuda high pressure ridging persists with an axis
extending over the area. A cold front will approach the region, but
stall to the northwest on Friday with slightly more moisture and
instability allowing for widely scattered showers and isolated
T'storms each afternoon into the weekend. Light southeast winds each
day will favor the Atlantic seabreeze moving well inland each
afternoon to I-75 where best focus for isolated T'storm potential
will be Wednesday and again Friday into Saturday with drier air from
the Atlantic on Thursday limiting chances for any showers. The high
pressure pattern and mostly clear skies on Wednesday night will
allow for patchy fog developing into early Thursday morning, which
may be locally dense.

Highs will be above normal during the period with mid 80s inland and
upper 70s at the coast warming further to the upper 80s inland, mid
80s along I-95, and around 80 at the coast Friday into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
A few lingering MVFR CIGS at GNV/VQQ but ceilings elsewhere should
lift to VFR before 14Z as ceilings lifr to the 3,500 - 6,000 foot
range. The bigger impact will continue to be strong and gusty
northeasterly surface winds, with inland speeds remaining sustained
at 10-15 knots and gusty, while speeds at the coastal terminals
remain in the 15-20 knot range, with frequent 25-30 knot gusts.
Surface winds will shift slightly to east-northeasterly after 14Z,
with speeds increasing to 15-20 knots and gusty at the inland
terminals and 20-25 knots at the coastal terminals, where frequent
gusts around 30 knots will be possible through around 22Z. Surface
winds will then shift back to northeasterly with diminishing speeds
both inland and at the coast towards 00Z Monday. Winds will decrease
to around 5 knots after sunset tonight inland and 8-10 knots for the
Atlantic coastal terminals.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure centered near the Chesapeake Bay will continue
to wedge down the southeastern seaboard today, with this feature
then shifting eastward over the western Atlantic waters tonight and
Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will prevail through tonight
throughout our local waters, with elevated seas keeping Small Craft
Advisory conditions in place on Monday across the northeast Florida
waters. Meanwhile, coastal troughing will remain situated over the
northeast Florida waters through Tuesday, generating occasional
showers through Tuesday, with isolated embedded thunderstorms
possible on Monday and Tuesday. Atlantic high pressure positioned
near Bermuda will continue to extend its axis westward across the
southeastern states during the middle to late portions of this week,
maintaining breezy southeasterly winds across our local waters, with
elevated seas persisting offshore.

Rip Currents / High Surf:

Life threatening surf conditions will continue through Monday as
strong onshore winds persist today and only gradually subside on
Sunday night and Monday. A High Surf Advisory will remain in effect
through today at all area beaches, with breakers of 8-10 feet
continuing at the northeast FL beaches, with heights of 5-7 feet
expected at the southeast GA beaches. Dangerous rip currents will be
present, and there will be a significant risk for anyone who
ventures into the surf zone through Monday. Surf will only gradually
diminish on Tuesday as breezy onshore winds prevail, and a high risk
may continue at the northeast FL beaches as breezy southeasterly
winds combine with an easterly ocean swell. A moderate risk is
expected from Tuesday through at least Friday at the southeast GA
beaches.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Today
- Areas Of High Daytime Dispersions Wednesday Through Friday

Strong high pressure will build to the northeast today with breezy
easterly winds 10-15 mph gusting to 25 mph inland and 15-20 mph and
gusting 30 mph at the coast and combined with breezy transport winds
aloft and higher mixing heights will lead high dispersion values this
afternoon. As the high moves away to east towards Bermuda early this
week, onshore east to southeast winds will decrease with chances for
showers and an isolated T'storm Monday and Tuesday afternoons. The
high will remain near Bermuda through the end of the week with light
south to southeast winds and daily afternoon seabreeze circulations
favoring a more dominant Atlantic seabreeze pushing inland to I-75
before merging with the Gulf seabreeze leading to isolated T'storm
potential across western zones. Increasing mixing heights and highs
warming into the mid/upper 80s will help create high dispersion
values Wednesday through Friday.

FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS: No fog expected until Monday night
with patchy fog potential each morning through late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  71  53  79  59 /   0  10  20  10
SSI  66  61  73  62 /  10  20  20  10
JAX  70  58  79  61 /  10  30  40  10
SGJ  68  63  76  63 /  10  40  50  10
GNV  73  60  82  61 /  10  30  50  10
OCF  75  61  83  62 /  10  20  60  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for FLZ124-125-
     138-233-333.
     High Surf Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for FLZ124-125-138-
     233-333.
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents through Monday evening for GAZ154-166.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-166.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ450.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for AMZ452-454.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ470.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ472-474.

&&