Ice Storm in Georgia, January 24 to 25, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
730 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Very light precip is occurring over the area but onset of
accumulating wintry precipitation has been pushed slightly later
this evening.

Confidence has increased that the impending ice storm will come
in two phases, with relatively steady ice and sleet accumulations
tonight and early Sunday, with types changing to freezing rain or
rain late Sunday morning through the afternoon, and a final period
of heavy rain possible Sunday afternoon and early evening. Revised
ice and snow/sleet totals through the event accounting for latest
changes to precip type trends. More ice in some areas and less
ice in others, but no significant changes in expected impacts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A major ice storm is expected tonight through Sunday evening
across the forecast area, with an Ice Storm Warning remaining in
effect for the entire CWA. Impacts will be crippling across at
least a part of the forecast area, especially where ice accretion
approaches or exceeds 0.75". Widespread power outages and extremely
difficult to impossible travel conditions are expected to linger
through at least the early part of the work week.
2. Dangerously cold wind chills may develop Monday night into
Tuesday morning, which could result in hypothermia or frostbite
if precautions are not taken.
3. A reinforcing cold front is expected later next week with
another chance for dangerously cold wind chills Wednesday night
and again Thursday night, which could result in hypothermia or
frostbite if precautions are not taken.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: A major ice storm is expected tonight through Sunday
evening across the forecast area, with an Ice Storm Warning
remaining in effect for the entire CWA. Impacts will be crippling
across at least a part of the forecast area, especially where ice
accretion approaches or exceeds 0.75". Widespread power outages and
extremely difficult to impossible travel conditions are expected
to linger through at least the early part of the work week.

Conditions remain favorable for a major winter storm with arctic
high pressure building south into the area and low pressure moving
east along the Gulf coast. Moisture and weak forcing are slowly
spreading over the area resulting in spotty light wintry mixed
precip moving through. The heavier precip will hold off until late
afternoon or early evening when the deeper moisture and stronger
forcing move in from the west.

The main questions early on with this storm are the QPF, strength of
the warm nose, and depth of the surface cold layer. Precip should
initially start as snow or a snow/sleet mix across the mountains,
snow/sleet over the foothills and possibly Piedmont of NC and
more of a sleet/freezing rain mix for NE GA and the Upstate. That
said, some snow is possible at the start for all locations but no
significant snow accums are expected. Once the warm nose kicks in,
precip should be mainly sleet for NC and mainly freezing rain for
NE GA and the Upstate. The sleet mix will diminish and eventually
end from SW to NE across the area as the warm nose strengthens,
eventually increasing to as much as 10 degrees C. The surface
layer is forecast to be quite cold, but it would be hard to get
significant refreezing into sleet with a warm nose of this strength.

The main exception to this will be for Graham, Swain, northern
Jackson, northern Macon, and the higher elevations of Haywood
Counties. Here, the valleys may never get quite cold enough,
or stronger warming takes place as they will be outside of the
influence of the CAD. These higher elevations could completely be
inside the warm nose as well. These locations could end up with
less than warning criteria wintry precip, but it's too uncertain
to remove them from the warning at this time as cold air should
be strong enough initially for significant wintry precip.

Elsewhere, significant wintry precip is still expected. The guidance
has come in a little lower with overall QPF values and some are
hinting at any heavier precip rates outside of the mountains to be
delayed until after midnight then continuing into Sunday morning.
The mountains would initially see the heavier rates during the
evening and continuing into Sunday morning with strong warming
taking place in those previously mentioned mountain counties along
the TN border. Still expecting the main wintry accums from freezing
rain given the strength of the warm nose, with very high ice
accretion likely, but some significant sleet is possible, especially
along the I-40 corridor where the warm nose strengthens later.

The event enters a second phase of sorts Sunday afternoon, as CAD
wedge erosion processes continue and as a convective band of precip
subsequently shifts over the area from west to east. Parent high
will weaken and shift toward the Canadian Maritimes throughout
Sunday afternoon as anomalously deep upper trough shifts across
the MS Valley, and associated cold front moves across eastern TN
toward the Appalachians.

The main swath of isentropic lift over the wedge does still look to
shift northward as a Miller B-type evolution occurs, the baroclinic
zone following the surface lows on the periphery of the damming
high and shifting north. PoPs decline for a time in the middle of
the day as a result, with (initially) southeasterly 925-850mb flow
weakening, though it is hard to see precip completely tapering off
as a shallow cold pool, the wedge, will linger over most of the
forecast area.  Warm nose over the CWA looks strong enough by 18z to
include FZRA mention wherever sfc wet-bulbs remain below freezing at
that time, though some sleet still may be mixing in in the northern
NC foothills/Piedmont.  The flow in the 925-850mb layer however
will back to S to SW and reamplify in advance of the cold front,
further reducing the warm nose and probably eliminating possibility
of sleet in the northern zones over the course of the afternoon.

The 850mb flow rises to 50+ kt over much of the area in the
afternoon; strong flow will reamplify WAA over the wedge, perhaps
strongly enough it will allow the wedge to erode as parent high
becomes increasingly less of a factor. Still reluctant to advertise
as much warming as is depicted on some of the global model guidance,
which would bring temps above freezing and thus lead FZRA to change
to RA. Some of the CAMs, namely the 06z and 12z HRRR, appear
cold outliers even given the strong wedge in place early in the
event. The traditionally respectable (for CAD) NAM is closer to
freezing and seems more reasonable, but even it does depict temps
rising above freezing near our GA and SC CWA borders by sunset. The
same warm nose responsible for the freezing rain is pronounced
enough to allow some spotty 100+ J/kg MUCAPE. The wedge looks very
unlikely to erode enough for any SBCAPE, so no perceived threat of
high-shear low-CAPE severe wx. However, with the strong prefrontal
LLJ providing ample moisture advection and sharp frontogenetic
forcing aided by dynamic lift from jet streak to our north, most
guidance continues to show a signal for the elevated instability to
be realized as a convective line which looks to reach the mountains
approx. 21z Sun, progress across the CWA and exit 00-02z Mon. Model
consensus for precip out of this convective line generally falls
in the 0.30" to 0.50" range. With the tricky temperature trends
ahead of and along the line, whether that precip accumulates as
rain or ice is potentially the difference between an impactful ice
event for some of our Piedmont, and one that could be described as
crippling. The global models tend to depict the convection leading
to rain whereas most CAMs are colder at the surface and therefore
lead to a quick additional shot of ice accretion. Favoring the
colder temp trends, the greatest 6-hour ice accumulation still
occurs after 18z Sunday except where temps have already warmed above
freezing by that time.  If the convective line doesn't materialize,
total ice would trend appreciably lower. Rapid liquid-equivalent
rates are typically associated with less ice accretion, however,
but this was taken into account in our forecast and we still have
much of the CWA outside of the mountains getting 0.1" to 0.4"
of ice just in that phase of the event.

There remains some potential for still higher precip rates outside
the wedge, which by Sun aftn would include the mountain valleys
of SW NC below the Smokies/Balsams. 1 to 2 inches of QPF, with
isolated higher amounts along southwest facing ridges, looks
to fall as liquid during the day Sunday in that area, and those
could trend higher if convection appears still more likely. WPC
has that area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rain on Day 2 and
that currently looks reasonable.

Key message 2: Dangerously cold wind chills may develop Monday night
into Tuesday morning, which could result in hypothermia or frostbite
if precautions are not taken.

Temperatures may continue to warm for a time Sunday evening as
wedge erodes, but cold front should stall and then reverse any
warming from NW to SE overnight. Wind gusts will pick up Monday
morning in the wake of the front. High elevations will see temps
cool through late Monday morning, and combined with the wind, wind
chills dip below -5F in some spots. Will consider Cold Weather
Advisory in subsequent forecast shifts, given messaging is still
most focused on the ice storm. Gusts themselves approach but
don't quite reach Wind Advisory crtieria on their own during the
day Monday. Temperatures have trended a little warmer Monday with
increasingly less guidance depicting snow/sleet accumulation on the
ground, rising a few degrees above freezing in much of the Piedmont.

Temps trend much colder Monday night as continental high centers
just west of the region. Temps have trended slightly warmer then
too, but still in the single digits over the mountains and part
of the NC Piedmont, and lower teens along/south of I-85. With
some wind continuing over the mountains and resultant wind chill,
still looks like higher elevations could reach Extreme Cold Warning
criteria, with most other mountain areas in Cold Weather Advisory
range. With wind chill falling into the single digits over most
non-mountain areas, whether we objectively meet crtieria will
depend on the climatology-based thresholds, but can't rule out
impact based adjustments to criteria given that a very large
proportion of the area could be without power.

Cold temps much of the coming week will exacerbate threats of
hypothermia for anyone traveling or still without power. Make
sure to check up on vulnerable loved ones and neighbors, pets,
and have plenty of blankets and warm clothing. Remember to avoid
burning fuels like propane or kerosene indoors as this increases
fire risk and carbon monoxide poisoning.

Key message 3: A reinforcing cold front is expected later next week
with another chance for dangerously cold wind chills Wednesday
night and again Thursday night, which could result in hypothermia
or frostbite if precautions are not taken.

Still expecting another shortwave to round an upper low north of
the Great Lakes Wednesday and blow across the Appalachians early
Thursday with another cold front. Moisture along the front is
minimal, but a brief round of light NW flow snow showers appears
possible and is reflected in small PoPs along the TN border Wed
night.  While temps may remain a bit above freezing in most areas
Wednesday, the passage of the front will bring min temps back into
the single digits Thu morning near the TN border along with subzero
wind chills w hich could prompt another Cold Wx Advisory or even
high elevation Extreme Cold Warning. Mainly teens elsewhere with
wind chill above criteria unless an exception is made for power
outages as noted previously.  Thursday night looks likely to trend
a few degrees colder yet again, with wind chills falling into the
same categories. High temp Friday could be below freezing in much
of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Wintry precip has been moving over our
fcst area for the past couple of hours, but has only impacted
KAVL and KHKY so far this evening. Still expect low-end VFR cigs
at most terminals thru the evening with MVFR cigs in any bands
of precip moving thru...shown with the PROB30s. KAVL is the ex-
ception, with prevailing MVFR cigs and prevailing -FZRAPL begin-
ning now. I still can't rule out some brief snow flurries over
the next few hrs, but the bulk of the precip should fall as sleet
and/or freezing rain tonight/overnight. Based on the latest model
profiles, it's looking like a sleet/freezing rain mix will now
prevail thru most of Sunday morning with freezing rain not expec-
ted to become the predominate p-type until late Sunday morning.
Still expect MVFR visby and cigs to settle in over the next few
hrs, with IFR cigs spreading over the fcst area overnight. I de-
layed the onset of IFR vsby with LIFR cigs by a few hrs, and now
have it prevailing at most terminals by roughly noon on Sunday.
Sleet chances taper off at most locations Sunday afternoon with
the potential for a transition to rain only. This changeover re-
mains uncertain and is only advertised at KAVL and KAND as they
are most likely to be above freezing towards the end of the 00z
taf period. Otherwise, winds will remain NELY with low-end gusts
at KGSP, KGMU, and KAND thru the overnight. Occasional gusts are
possible at the other taf sites, but my confidence wasn't high
enough to include at this time. At KAVL, winds will remain S/SE
with speeds between 5 and 10 kts.

Outlook: Prolonged flight restrictions are expected into Monday
even after precipitation ends Sunday evening. VFR conditions should
return on Tuesday and continue thru mid-week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 01-27

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      80 1999     17 1940     54 1916      2 1986
   KCLT      75 1890     24 1940     58 1890      6 1940
   KGSP      73 1954     29 1940     57 1949      8 1940

RECORDS FOR 01-28

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      75 1914      7 1897     52 1916     -2 1986
                                                    1897
   KCLT      79 1944     20 1897     59 1916      5 1986
   KGSP      77 1944     29 1986     55 1957      5 1986

RECORDS FOR 01-29

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 2002     25 1977     52 1917     -1 1897
                            1897
   KCLT      79 2002     29 2014     59 1957      8 1897
   KGSP      78 2002     27 1897     57 1957      6 1897
                                        1916

RECORDS FOR 01-30

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      76 2002     11 1966     55 1950     -7 1966
                                        1914
   KCLT      78 2002     19 1966     59 1914      4 1966
   KGSP      76 1975     20 1966     53 2002     -6 1966

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Ice Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for GAZ010-017-018-026-
     028-029.
NC...Ice Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for NCZ033-035>037-
     048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Ice Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for SCZ008>014-019-
     101>109.

&&

JCW/JPT/RWH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
230 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-250730-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
230 AM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

...ICE STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM
EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Ice Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Ice Storm Warning.

Following the end of wintry precipitation early Monday, temperatures
will remain very cold through much of next week. Dangerous wind
chills are expected Monday night through Tuesday morning and Cold
Weather Advisories may be necessary. A reinforcing cold front will
bring the threat of very low wind chills again on Wednesday night and
Thursday night. This prolonged period of cold temperatures will be
especially dangerous due to the possibility of extended power outages
resulting from this weekend's storm. Roads likely will remain icy
and treacherous through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

ARK

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
842 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     Freezing Rain    Troutman                35.71N 80.89W
01/24/2026  E0.05 Inch       Iredell            NC   Public

            Social Media post.

&&

CSH

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
922 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     Freezing Rain    Etowah                  35.31N 82.60W
01/24/2026  E0.01 Inch       Henderson          NC   Public

            Social media post.

&&

TDP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
923 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     Freezing Rain    Waynesville             35.49N 83.00W
01/24/2026  E0.01 Inch       Haywood            NC   Public

            Social media post.

&&

TDP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
946 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     Freezing Rain    Mooresville             35.58N 80.81W
01/24/2026  E0.01 Inch       Iredell            NC   Public

            Social media post.

&&

TDP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
959 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0958 PM     Freezing Rain    2 SSE Skyland           35.46N 82.51W
01/24/2026  E0.01 Inch       Buncombe           NC   Public

            Social media post.

&&

TDP

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1001 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1001 PM     Sleet            1 N Lenoir              35.92N 81.53W
01/24/2026  E0.3 Inch        Caldwell           NC   Amateur Radio

&&

TDP