Rip Current in Florida, May 7, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
523 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 518 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

- A marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather is forecast
  for Friday afternoon across much of the Florida Panhandle and
  Big Bend. Some severe potential is possible across southeast
  Alabama and southwest Georgia.

- Beneficial rain is on the way the next several days. Chances of
  1.0" or more of rain are highest (60% to 80%) north and west of
  a line from Panama City, FL to Tifton, GA and taper off to less
  than 1% in the Southeast Florida Big Bend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Much of the severe threat for today is diminishing as instability
wanes across the forecast area and the forcing for severe weather
lifts off to the northeast. A weak front will limp into the
forecast area this evening and into the overnight hours and
gradually stall somewhere across our Florida counties and/or
across the northern Gulf. In the upper levels, elevated westerlies
and several embedded impulses will move across the stationary
boundary into tomorrow afternoon. These impulses, combined with
another round of afternoon heating should drive additional shower
and thunderstorm chances along and north of the frontal boundary.
The elevated mid-level flow will contribute to elevated deep-layer
shear across the forecast area so a few areas of strong, possibly
severe, storms can't be ruled out again for Friday afternoon but
the coverage and intensity is likely to be less than what we saw
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

A fairly active and progressive pattern continues into the weekend
and early next week with rain chances remaining above normal the
next few days. The stationary front from Friday will likely lift
north in advance of a stronger upper level impulse and this should
help drive another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday, especially across our Alabama and Georgia counties.
Like Friday, a strong storm or two can't be ruled out for Saturday.

Moving into the rest of the weekend and early next week, an active
pattern will remain in place and additional rounds of showers and
storms are possible on Sunday and Monday before the final trough
passage late Monday into Tuesday brings quieter and drier conditions
to the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail this evening but as a weak frontal
boundary pushes through, more widespread MVFR/IFR conditions will
develop, especially at southern terminals of ECP/TLH/VLD. Another
round of showers and storms is likely tomorrow, especially at
southern terminals of ECP/TLH/VLD.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Winds turn northerly tonight behind a front, especially across
nearshore waters but southerly to southwesterly breezes return over
the weekend as the stalled front lifts north as a warm front.
Showers and storms are forecast more often than not through the
weekend. Seas will generally run between 1 to 3 feet through the
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Fire concerns will generally decrease through the next few days as a
moist pattern with widespread showers and storms develops.
Main concerns on Friday will be low dispersions due to lighter
winds. Friday will bring the lowest humidities of the next few days
with high chances of wetting rains expected from Friday afternoon
onwards into Monday. Rainfall totals will vary from around 1 to 3
inches across our southeast AL counties and southwest GA counties to
around 0.5 to 1.0 inches across the southeast Florida Big Bend by
the time Tuesday rolls around. From Tuesday onwards, drier
conditions will take over through at least the end of next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Rainfall totals will vary from 1 to 3 inches across southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia to around 0.5 to 1 inches across the
southeast Florida Big Bend from now into Monday evening. These
amounts will be very beneficial for the ongoing drought, but not
likely enough to make much of a dent.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and/or damage by calling the
office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   68  84  66  82 /  20  30  30  80
Panama City   68  82  69  80 /  10  30  50  90
Dothan        61  75  61  77 /  10  10  50  90
Albany        60  76  61  77 /  10   0  50  80
Valdosta      66  82  65  82 /  20  10  30  80
Cross City    71  90  69  87 /  30  20  10  40
Apalachicola  71  80  71  79 /  20  20  30  80

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ Friday for
     FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs
HYDROLOGY...Dobbs

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
221 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 S Lake Jackson        30.50N 84.33W
05/07/2026                   Leon               FL   Emergency Mngr

            Trees reported down on Old Bainbridge road
            near Danesborogh Drive and Fred George Road.

&&

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
225 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 ENE Governors Square  30.44N 84.24W
05/07/2026                   Leon               FL   Emergency Mngr

            Tree reported down on E Park Ave near
            Victory Garden.

&&

rh

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
228 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 SW Killearn Estates   30.51N 84.23W
05/07/2026                   Leon               FL   Emergency Mngr

            Electrical lines reported down on Olson Road
            and Raymond Diehl Road.

&&

rh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

FLZ028-029-071945-
Inland Taylor FL-Lafayette FL-
252 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE AND
NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 252 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles northeast of Perry, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Townsend, Buckville, Day, Chancey, and Mayo Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3008 8327 3022 8360 3029 8353 3028 8347
      3026 8347 3026 8325 3025 8325 3025 8324
      3024 8325 3023 8324 3018 8325 3017 8323
      3015 8324 3014 8323 3011 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1852Z 293DEG 26KT 3024 8350

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

02-MONTGOMERY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
254 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0157 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     1 WNW Paxton            30.98N 86.32W
05/07/2026                   Walton             FL   Park/Forest Srvc

            Trees reported down west of Paxton.

&&

rh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
Issued by National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
513 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

FLZ012>014-112-326-426-072145-
Coastal Bay FL-Southern Liberty FL-Inland Bay FL-Calhoun FL-
Northern Liberty FL-Inland Gulf FL-
513 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN GULF...EAST CENTRAL
BAY...SOUTHERN CALHOUN COUNTIES IN THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA AND
SOUTHWESTERN LIBERTY COUNTIES IN BIG BEND FLORIDA THROUGH 545 PM
EDT/445 PM CDT/...

At 513 PM EDT/413 PM CDT/, Doppler radar was tracking a strong
thunderstorm 8 miles northeast of Callaway, moving east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Panama City, Lynn Haven, Callaway, Springfield, Stonemill Creek,
Tyndall Air Force Base, Orange, Parker, Wewahitchka, Vilas, Chipola
Cutoff, Jensen Place, College Station, Bayou George, Central City,
Red Hill, Clio, Scotts Ferry, Estiffanulga, and Kern.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3009 8562 3028 8563 3039 8482 3010 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 259DEG 33KT 3021 8545

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

DD