Damaging Winds in Florida, May 17, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
239 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

- There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today along
  the I-75 corridor west to the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers.
  Main concerns are strong to damaging winds (40-60 mph), small
  hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

- Hot temperatures are expected through mid week. There is a high
  chance of highs at or above 90 across the area with the Florida
  Big Bend having a low chance of highs at or above 95. The heat
  may affect those who are sensitive, especially without
  cooling/hydration.

- Isolated afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms
  will return mid to late week. Gusty winds and locally heavy
  rainfall are the main concerns with any stronger storms that
  develop.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Showers and thunderstorms are about to get underway across the
Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor as the Apalachee Bay sea breeze
moves inland and will later collide with the East Coast sea breeze
late this afternoon. There is plenty of instability to work with as
temperatures climb into the 90s with dew points in the upper 60s to
near 70. Additionally there is ample DCAPE this afternoon around
1000 J/kg. Thus, some thunderstorms this afternoon will be capable
of strong downbursts, frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and maybe
some hail. The Storm Prediction Center has the I-75 corridor and
Suwannee Valley outlined in a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level
1 of 5). Elsewhere, it will just be a warm and humid day. Showers
and storms will gradually fade during the evening, though we may
see an outflow boundary develop from the these storms that moves
westward late evening, producing a brief period of easterly gusts
around 15-25 mph and a few showers. Late tonight into Monday
morning, some patchy fog may develop in areas where winds go light
to calm overnight. Lows will be quite warm in the mid 60s to low
70s.

For Monday, some drier air begins to move in from the east, which
will shove our rain chances more toward the Florida Panhandle and
southeast Alabama along the Emerald Coast seabreeze. There will yet
again be ample instability and DCAPE for gusty winds with
thunderstorms. Otherwise, it will be another hot day with highs in
the upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Anomalously strong ridging builds over the eastern US, and some
drier air moves over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. This will lead
to lower rain chances again with hotter temperatures. Tuesday
through Thursday will be the hottest days of the week with
widespread 90s. The FL Big Bend has a low (10-30%) chance of highs
at or above 95 Tuesday and Wednesday. Across the FL counties, where
it will be more humid, heat index values could approach 100 in
isolated spots. This level of heat could affect those who are
sensitive to heat and those who do not have access to adequate
cooling or hydration.

The ridge begins to flatten somewhat next week as troughing over the
western US tries to move eastward. Moisture will also begin to
increase again late in the week into the holiday weekend. The summer-
like forecast resumes again with it being hot and humid with
increasing chances of afternoon pop-up storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 125 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail outside brief MVFR/IFR conditions in
any thunderstorm activity that develops today. Most TSRA should
affect VLD/ABY but some low probabilities exist at TLH/ECP. Any
activity that develops will likely be from 19z to 00z. Light
easterly winds move in overnight for most TAF sites with VFR
conditions likely prevailing overnight, but patchy fog can't be
ruled out. However, confidence was too low at any site to warrant
mention in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Gentle east to southeast breezes will prevail through the next
several days. Easterly nocturnal surges are possible each night
through mid-week, with the strongest surges possible tonight and
Monday night where winds could briefly reach cautionary levels,
especially if outflow boundaries from storms on land move over the
waters.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

High dispersions are expected on Monday across the Suwannee Valley
and I-75 corridor as mixing heights climb to near 7,000 feet with
easterly transport winds around 10 mph. Elsewhere, winds will be
more southerly to southeasterly, but mixing heights will be lower,
yielding good dispersions. Scattered showers and storms are
possible Monday afternoon in the Florida Panhandle and southeast
Alabama. Lighter transport winds out of the east to southeast are
expected Tuesday, then more variable Wednesday. Dispersions both
days will be good area wide. Isolated showers and storms will be
possible both afternoons as the sea breeze advances inland.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

Isolated to scattered storms will be possible each day through the
next week. These could produce locally heavy downpours, which may
lead to some nuisance flooding, mainly in urban or poor drainage
areas. However, widespread flooding concerns are not expected.

Extreme to exceptional drought continues across the area. While
the rain is beneficial, significant improvement in drought
conditions is not expected. For more information on local drought
impacts, please visit
www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   91  70  91  70 /  10  10   0   0
Panama City   85  71  86  70 /   0   0  10   0
Dothan        89  66  88  67 /  10  10  20   0
Albany        91  67  89  66 /  50  30   0   0
Valdosta      92  66  91  66 /  70  50   0   0
Cross City    93  68  94  68 /  50  30   0   0
Apalachicola  83  74  82  73 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Young
LONG TERM....Young
AVIATION...Dobbs
MARINE...Young
FIRE WEATHER...Young
HYDROLOGY...Young

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
254 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ148-161-171930-
Berrien GA-Lanier GA-
254 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BERRIEN AND
NORTHEASTERN LANIER COUNTIES THROUGH 330 PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Lakeland, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Alapaha, Weber, Glory, Gladys, and Bannockburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3112 8306 3138 8326 3148 8326 3147 8315
      3140 8314 3139 8312 3136 8311 3133 8306
      3130 8306 3128 8304 3123 8305 3119 8305
      3118 8298 3112 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 128DEG 6KT 3117 8301

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
315 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

FLZ018-019-028-029-034-128-134-GAZ158-159-172000-
Coastal Dixie FL-Inland Taylor FL-Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-
Inland Dixie FL-Coastal Taylor FL-Lafayette FL-Brooks GA-Thomas GA-
315 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT LAFAYETTE...DIXIE...JEFFERSON...
TAYLOR...MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN THOMAS AND SOUTHERN BROOKS COUNTIES
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 315 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 13 miles south of Quitman to near Fowlers
Bluff. Movement was west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Mayo, Perry, Madison, Cross City, Quitman, Boston,
Greenville, Lee, Alma, Pinland, Shamrock, Old Town, Everett, Pinetta,
Drifton, Lovett, Empress, Brooks Co A/p, and Foley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2938 8305 2951 8322 3032 8396 3052 8404
      3052 8398 3067 8401 3080 8390 3084 8374
      3082 8344 3082 8345 3075 8348 3070 8345
      3063 8329 3041 8320 3025 8325 3011 8323
      3008 8308 2978 8294 2958 8295 2959 8294
TIME...MOT...LOC 1915Z 106DEG 11KT 3060 8363 2941 8298

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
330 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ130-131-148-172015-
Berrien GA-Irwin GA-Ben Hill GA-
330 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT IRWIN...NORTHEASTERN BERRIEN AND
SOUTHEASTERN BEN HILL COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 330 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms near Alapaha, or 7 miles northwest of Willacoochee,
moving northwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fitzgerald, Ocilla, Enigma, Alapaha, Mystic, Gladys, Osierfield,
Glory, Pinetta, Ashton, Bannockburn, Fitzgerald Municipal A/P, Weber,
and Wray.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Locally heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3164 8301 3161 8306 3155 8306 3149 8310
      3146 8315 3144 8314 3140 8314 3133 8306
      3130 8306 3128 8304 3122 8305 3120 8319
      3146 8336 3148 8334 3148 8338 3155 8342
      3175 8334 3175 8319 3168 8300
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 138DEG 14KT 3141 8315

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
400 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

FLZ018-019-028-029-GAZ158-159-172045-
Inland Taylor FL-Inland Jefferson FL-Madison FL-Lafayette FL-
Brooks GA-Thomas GA-
400 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAFAYETTE...
NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...NORTHEASTERN TAYLOR...MADISON...SOUTHEASTERN
THOMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BROOKS COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles south of Boston to
7 miles east of Perry. Movement was northwest at 20 mph. A
Greenville Weatherstem site recently reported a 39 mph gust.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Madison, Perry, Quitman, Boston, Greenville, Dills, Grooverville,
Ebb, Everett, Hamburg, Eridu, Lovett, Empress, Sirmans, Shady Grove,
Dixie, Iddo, Moseley Hall, Secotan, and Boyd.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3003 8344 3018 8374 3080 8391 3084 8374
      3076 8353 3019 8325 3018 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 156DEG 18KT 3066 8375 3014 8345

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
412 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ160-161-172100-
Lanier GA-Lowndes GA-
412 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LANIER AND EAST
CENTRAL LOWNDES COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Du Pont, or 12 miles southeast of Lakeland, moving northwest at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Lakeland, Naylor, Hansell, Greenwood, and Stockton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3087 8298 3086 8299 3086 8300 3085 8301
      3085 8310 3103 8307 3103 8297 3087 8297
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 133DEG 7KT 3091 8292

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

IG3

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
423 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

GAZ130-131-172115-
Irwin GA-Ben Hill GA-
423 PM EDT Sun May 17 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL IRWIN AND SOUTHWESTERN
BEN HILL COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 423 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ocilla, moving northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fitzgerald, Ocilla, Mystic, Irwinville, Fitzgerald Municipal A/P,
Pinetta, and Abba.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8316 3150 8319 3152 8338 3162 8344
      3176 8340 3176 8319
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 119DEG 9KT 3157 8329

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

IG3