Funnel Cloud in Florida, May 13, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
733 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures warm to above normal conditions Friday through
  early next week.

- Severe to extreme drought conditions continue for most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Mainly VFR conditions continue this evening with multiple cloud
layers from decaying afternoon convection and post frontal
stratus. Models are hinting at some areas of MVFR cigs as low
level moisture becomes trapped under inversion for low stratus on
light NW flow off the E Gulf thru 12Z. W flow increases THU
mixing out low clouds by around 15Z Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Frontal boundary across the region will move south of the area
tonight and Thursday with a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm continuing across the region into this evening. Winds
shift to more northerly during tonight and just ahead of this
shift we could see a few more light showers/sprinkles. For
Thursday and Friday, high pressure will build in from the north
with mostly sunny and less humid conditions. The overall flow will
be light enough that we'll see a decent west coast sea breeze
develop both afternoons keeping coastal areas in the 80s while
inland locations climb into the lower 90s.

Over the weekend and into early next week, the surface high will
move out into the western Atlantic Ocean but continue to ridge
west into the southeast U.S. setting up an east to southeast flow
across the peninsula. Moisture will gradually return with rain
chances slowly increasing each day, starting out 20 to 50 percent
across inland areas Saturday then increasing to 30 to 70 percent
from north to south early next week with the best chances along
the coastal counties where the sea breeze collision occurs during
the late afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be a few
degrees above normal during this time, but not expecting any new
records.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A stalled frontal boundary over the waters will slowly drift south
tonight and Thursday, with isolated showers and thunderstorms
possible early tonight, then drier conditions return for Thursday
and Friday. High pressure will settle in northeast of the waters
this weekend into early next week, with afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms possibly moving west into the coastal
each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

A stalled frontal boundary over the region will shift south
tonight and Thursday with drier air spreading south Thursday and
Friday. Relative humidity values are forecast to remain above
critical levels Thursday, but could drop to 30 to 34 percent
across inland parts of the Nature Coast on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  72  86  69  90 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  73  91  71  93 /  10   0   0  20
GIF  69  88  67  90 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  72  87  70  90 /  20   0   0   0
BKV  66  87  61  91 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  74  88  72  90 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Wynn
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Wynn

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
332 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 AM     Waterspout       4 NW Captiva            26.56N 82.23W
05/13/2026                   GMZ856             FL   Broadcast Media

            Media video report of waterspout west of
            North Captiva.

&&

TBW