Drought in Florida, May 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
804 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 802 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

    - Smoke from the Hwy 41 wildfire could result in reduced air
      quality & visibilities across portions of the Miami Metro
      today. Patches to areas of dense fog will be possible across
      southwestern Florida through daybreak this morning.

    - Dry conditions will prevail with unseasonable heat possible
      each afternoon through Saturday. The odds of major (level 3
      of 4) heat risk across the east coast metro on Saturday
      continues to increase.

    - Rain chances increase during the second half of the upcoming
      weekend. While uncertainty remains high, there is
      increasing potential of storms & heavy rainfall across our
      region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Surface high pressure over South Florida will continue to dominate
the weather pattern over the next few days, leading to dry and
stable conditions across the region. Ridging aloft actually flattens
a little bit today as a shortwave trough crosses through the Great
Lakes, bringing a stalling cold front over north Florida. The 18z
MFL sounding shows a pretty similar environment to yesterday, with
mid-level dry air and subsidence contributing to a pretty stout cap
at 750 mb. As a result, no rain is expected across the region,
despite PWATs of 1.3 to 1.4 inches. High pressure will also allow
for light and variable winds and mostly clear skies overnight,
resulting in effective radiational cooling. There is still some
uncertainty among guidance, but there is a signal for patchy fog to
develop along the Everglades and southwest Florida during the early
morning hours on Friday. For now, there is low confidence for any
significant visibility impacts, but the main ares that would get
affected would be the western parts of Tamiami Trail and Alligator
Alley.

The mid-level ridge axis that is currently over the Gulf, will shift
eastward towards the Caribbean and the Strait of Florida. This will
allow for 500 mb heights to raise slightly over the region, up to
around the 75th percentile for this time of year. Dry mid level air
and surface high pressure will continue to control the pattern over
South Florida on Friday, leading to another sunny afternoon. High
temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s across the region.
As a result, there is a moderate Heat Risk (level 2 of 4) across
interior portions of South Florida and eastern metro areas.
Sensitive individuals will be most at risk without proper hydration
or prolonged outdoor exposure. Overall, winds will be 5 to 10 kts
and out of the southwest, keeping the Atlantic sea breeze pinned to
the eastern coastlines.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 431 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

The synoptic pattern across the eastern CONUS begins to change as
deep longwave troughing digs into the Deep South. Lobes of vorticity
associated with this wave will swing down from the Midwest and south
towards the Gulf. This, along with the subtropical jet rounding the
base of the trough, will promote favorable ascent for frontogenesis.
As a result, a cold front will swing south through north Florida
on Saturday. Ensemble cluster analysis still indicates that there
are some key timing difference among solutions resolving the speed
and strength of the front as it makes its way into central
Florida. Most of these difference have to do with the evolution of
the parent upper low over Quebec and how it ejects east. However,
guidance is starting to zero in on the main window for when the
front starts to enter South Florida to be late Saturday night
through Sunday afternoon. The one outlier seems to be the NAM
deterministic model, showing the front moving through on late
Sunday.

But before getting into the nitty-gritty details regarding the
frontal induced weather for the end of the weekend, the more
pertinent concern for Saturday is actually the heat. As the front
slides southward, pressure gradients will increase across the
region, inducing a stronger southerly flow over the area. Warm
and moist advection from southerly to southwesterly winds will
increase dewpoints and temperatures throughout SoFlo. Surface
high pressure will stay strong ahead of the front in southwest
Florida, keeping dry and stable air aloft for another day of
mostly sunny skies. This will allow for efficient daytime heating,
creating heat indices in the upper 90s and lower 100s. Widespread
moderate Heat Risk (level 2 of 4) will be present across most of
South Florida. East coast metro areas within the urban heat island
may see high temperatures climb to near record for this time of
year, close to the mid 90s. The NWS Prototype Probabilistic Heat
Risk, shows up to an 80% chance for localized Major Heat Risk
(level 3 of 4) in northern metro Dade county and southern metro
Broward. Inadequate hydration or proper cooling may lead to heat
illness for anyone outside for long periods of time.

By late Saturday night into Sunday, winds will begin to shift
westerly and then northerly as the front begins to swing through the
region. The bottom line up front: widespread rainfall is expected
across the region for Sunday afternoon through Monday. Exact
placement of heaviest rainfall amounts is still uncertain, but
ensemble QPF clusters have trended upward for rainfall amounts. Many
areas could see 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with localized heavier
amounts of 2 to 4 inches. A faster propagating solution, as
described by some of the clusters, would lead to a 'drier' and
quicker system with less rainfall. But a slower system could allow
for prolonged moisture convergence and heavier rainfall. Some
reasonable worst case scenarios indicate that widespread amounts
of 3 inches may be possible. As a result, there is a Marginal Risk
of Excessive Rainfall for parts for South Florida on Sunday.
Pooling water in low lying areas and localized urban flooding will
be the main concerns. While more favorable farther north, a few
severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Better dynamics from the
right entrance region of the subtropical jet in north Florida and
increased shear could be enough to allow for storms to grow
stronger. Strong winds would be the main concern, but with 500 mb
temperatures near -11 C closer to the Lake counties, hail may also
be a possibility.

The front looks to stall in the vicinity of our region through the
early part of the week, keeping a deeply moist airmass over the
area. With PWATs near 1.8 inches, low to moderate chances for
showers should remain through at least Tuesday. However, less
favorable forcing and dynamics should keep the threat of heavy
flooding rainfall at little to none for Tuesday. After that, high
pressure ridging looks to once again begin building over the Gulf,
lowering chances of rain and increasing temperatures areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 802 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Light and variable winds overnight will veer to an onshore
component along both coasts tomorrow afternoon with dry and VFR
conditions prevailing at all terminals throughout the end of the
TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Winds will veer to a southwesterly direction across the Gulf waters
and out of a southerly direction across the nearshore Atlantic
waters today where an afternoon wind surge could result in a brief
duration of small craft exercise caution conditions (SCEC) across
the northern Atlantic waters. A similar wind flow regime will play
out on Friday before winds enhance further in strength, remaining
out of a southerly to southwesterly direction during the upcoming
weekend. Seas across the Atlantic waters will generally range from 2
to 4 feet through the rest of the week while seas across the Gulf
waters remain at 2 feet or less. The arrival of a frontal boundary
in the vicinity of South Florida during the second half of the
weekend into next week could result in scattered to numerous showers
and storms across the local waters which could bring locally
hazardous winds and waves during that time frame.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Due to a lingering northeasterly swell, a high risk of rip currents
will persist across the Palm Beaches through the rest of the week. A
moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the rest
of the Atlantic Coast beaches during this time frame.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A nocturnal inversion present across the majority of inland South
Florida at daybreak will erode over the remainder of the morning
hours as winds gradually enhance out of southwesterly direction.
While wind speeds will remain relatively light, enhanced fire
behavior remains possible this afternoon as a combination of dry
fuels (Fire Potential Forecast of 4) and relative humidity values
(mid 30s to low 40s) near critical thresholds is forecast for inland
locations once again. A similar evolution is forecast on Friday,
with an additional window of enhanced fire behavior during the
afternoon hours. Closer to the coast, onshore winds will moderate
the airmass slightly precluding lower relative humidity values.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 207 AM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Today's Forecasted High Temperature Values:
Miami (KMIA): 88
Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 87
West Palm Beach (KPBI): 89

Today's 90th Percentile High Temperature Values:
(1 in 10 Chance)
Miami (KMIA): 92
Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 89
West Palm Beach (KPBI): 91

Today's Record Maximum High Temperature Values:
Miami (KMIA): 96
Fort Lauderdale (KFLL): 97
West Palm Beach (KPBI): 99

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            70  89  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     66  92  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        70  91  74  93 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        69  89  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  70  88  74  91 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  70  88  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
Pembroke Pines   71  92  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  69  89  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
Boca Raton       70  88  74  91 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           70  87  71  88 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...NMP
LONG TERM....NMP
AVIATION...Hadi