Drought in Florida, May 1 to 31, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
755 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 747 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

- There is a Marginal Risk of severe weather (level 1 of 5) for
  both Friday night and Saturday as our next frontal system pushes
  through the region. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail are all
  possible.

- There is a medium to high chance for much of our area to
  receive an inch or more of rainfall this weekend.

- A High Risk of Rip Currents is expected this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
(This Evening through next Wednesday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Latest SPC Day 2 and 3 Outlooks maintain a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4)
of severe thunderstorms, mainly in the FL counties into the Southern
tier of GA counties, centered on Friday night into Saturday. Shortwave
aloft in the lower MS Valley takes low pressure with a northward lifting
warm front through the region Friday night, followed by a cold passage
on Saturday. Ample deep layer shear (0-6 km) of 70 kts with a Southwest
low-level jet around 40 kts. Veering wind profile in the lower 1 km
leading to ample low-level SRH. There should be at least low CAPE on
Friday night with instability expected to increase further on Saturday.

The question will be the northward extent of surface-based instability
and thus storms rooted at the surface. On Friday night, the main concerns
are isolated damaging winds and large hail, with the tornado threat more
conditional. The focus would be more in the Eastern FL Panhandle on
Friday night. For Saturday, the focus shifts further east into the FL
Big Bend and Southern-tier of GA counties. Cannot rule out severe threat
further north in the GA counties as well. Main concerns again damaging
winds and large hail. Tornado threat may be greater in the morning as
low-level shear tends to decrease during the afternoon.

See the Hydrology section for details on the rainfall associated with
this system. A high risk of rip currents is also likely this weekend
along the Gulf Beaches. In particular Sunday, with nice beach weather,
which makes the water look more inviting despite dangerous rip currents.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 747 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

An area of showers and isolated storms is currently moving
through southern MS into southwest AL. What instability there is
resides offshore thus an overall weakening trend should occur with
eastward movement. Though a few bands of showers may move through
the area overnight with overall light rainfall, VFR conds should
prevail. The higher probs for SHRA and TSRA arrive later Friday
morning into the afternoon hours. Higher uncertainty this far out
maintains a PROB30 for TSRA at most locations as well as
intermittent MVFR in/around convection. Winds will generally be
from the northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

A stationary frontal boundary draped over the coastal waters will
move northward as a warm front Friday night and then through the
coastal waters as a cold front by Saturday night. Winds increase
possibly to advisory-levels for small craft by Saturday through
at least early Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms Friday night and
Saturday may lead to locally higher winds and seas, including
waterspouts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Increased wetting rain changes through Saturday as our next area
of low pressure approaches the area. The main concern will be
erratic and gusty wind potential with any thunderstorms,
especially Friday night into Saturday with a Marginal Risk of
severe storms across much of the districts. Otherwise, the main
fire weather concern is low dispersions persisting through Friday
afternoon mainly northwest of the FL Big Bend. On Sunday, with
the cold front southeast of the region, a much drier air mass
will be in place with minimum afternoon RH in the mid-20s to
mid-30s and northwest winds around 10 to 15 mph.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Around 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is forecast, mainly in the Friday
night through Saturday time frame, associated with a stationary
boundary turned northward lifting warm front and eventual cold
frontal passage. Locally higher amounts around 3 inches possible,
especially northwest of the FL Big Bend. This will be helpful
in terms of mitigating worsening drought with the potential for
generally minor poor drainage flooding due to quick runoff.

For more local drought info & statements, visit these websites:
weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought
weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   66  83  62  69 /  40  60  70 100
Panama City   66  79  61  69 /  50  60  90 100
Dothan        61  74  56  65 /  40  60  90  90
Albany        60  75  56  66 /  40  70  90 100
Valdosta      64  82  62  71 /  40  60  60 100
Cross City    65  87  66  81 /  10  30  20  90
Apalachicola  68  78  66  74 /  30  50  60 100

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...LF
LONG TERM....LF
AVIATION...Scholl
MARINE...LF
FIRE WEATHER...LF
HYDROLOGY...LF