Flood in Florida, March 13, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
702 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 701 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

    - Rain chances will remain elevated through the end of the
      upcoming weekend as a stalled frontal boundary and upper
      level disturbance will result in periods of scattered
      shower and storm activity.

    - During the afternoon and evening hours of today through
      Sunday, a few storms could become severe and produce
      frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, hail, and localized
      urban flooding.

    - Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

The latest satellite and radar imagery shows the decaying frontal
boundary with some scattered shower activity making its way
southwards tonight. This boundary will stall over South Florida and
allow for deeper moisture to pool across the area today and into
this weekend. PWATs are expected to rise to a range of 1.4-1.8" on
most short range mesoscale models (including the HRRR, RRFS, AIFS).
This deeper moisture along with a stalled frontal boundary will
provide instability for the local atmosphere. Additionally, the
longwave trough pattern covering much of the Eastern Seaboard will
swing through the Florida Peninsula, providing a forcing mechanism
for ascent via positive vorticity advection along with diurnal
heating and the sea breeze circulations. The troughing pattern will
flatten out some on Saturday, but South Florida will be downstream
from another shortwave forming in the Gulf, keeping the instability
ongoing.

With this moisture pooling and the decaying frontal boundary likely
hanging around through Saturday, scattered showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop both today and Saturday while also becoming
pretty widespread. Furthermore, there is a growing risk for some
storms to reach severe criteria as cold air aloft settles in above
the warmer near-surface air. 500mb temperatures are projected to
fall to -10 to -11 deg C today and fall even further as low as -12
to -13 deg C on Saturday. This would be near the coldest observed
500mb temperatures recorded. This profile with the cold air aloft
will result in steep low level lapse rates and a lower than normal
freezing level which can result in some robust updrafts and hail
growth. Model soundings also highlight an inverted-V setup both
today and tomorrow, which will create potential for microbursts
as rain cooled air can collapse to the surface.

Overall, the depicted atmospheric profiles and current local
conditions will pose threats for small to large hail, strong wind
gusts of 60+ mph, frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy
downpours. Can never entirely rule out a brief spin up either due to
sea breeze interactions with the main flow. General QPF for both
today and Saturday does not exceed more than 0.5-1 inch with a
reasonable worst case scenario of around 2 inches of rain. However,
latest HREF LPMM guidance does hint at localized potential for 4-6"
in a quick 2-3 hour time span. If these pockets happen to occur over
metro or downtown city areas, there could be quick flooding concerns
but with the flow pattern switching to the east/northeast, the
heaviest rain should occur over interior locations where sea breeze
convergence occurs and additional outflow boundaries collide.

High temperatures both today and Saturday will mostly be in the mid
80s with a few interior locations possibly reaching the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

An active weather pattern will continue for Sunday and into next
week as another trough forms over the Gulf and advects across the
Florida Peninsula through early next week. At the same time, a
powerful trough anchored by near-meriodional flow on the immediate
edges of it over the central U.S. will be advecting towards the
eastern U.S. towards mid-week. Because of how deep this trough is
anticipated to be, the resulting cold front it produces along the
leading edge is expected to make a push into South Florida and
perhaps through the region this time. Prior to the front arriving,
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop each day through Monday with severe thunderstorms continuing
to be possible as cold temperatures remain in the mid-levels of the
atmosphere and enhanced lift occurs from the troughing pattern.
Hail, strong wind gusts and periods of heavy rain can accompany
storms each day.

As the front passes on Tuesday, the overall atmospheric profile will
cool although deep moisture will not fully escape as PWATs remain
elevated and the atmospheric column becomes nearly saturated.
Thus, muggy conditions and slight chances for showers will
continue through the middle of next week and perhaps into late
week but it will not be anywhere near as active and chaotic as
this weekend is expected to be.

Temperatures are forecast to fall from the mid to upper 80s on
Monday to the low to mid 70s for most areas on Tuesday as the front
moves through and then a slow rebound into the late week period.
Overnight lows could fall back into the 40s and 50s for much of
South Florida on Wednesday morning post front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Light easterly winds today, with an afternoon Gulf breeze at APF.
Scattered showers this morning, with thunderstorms possible this
afternoon into early evening which may result in brief flight
restrictions and erratic winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Gentle to moderate easterly flow returns today across the local
waters and will become southeasterly over the weekend. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop each day
through this weekend and into early next week. Periods of heavy
rain, frequent lightning, hail, and gusty winds can accompany storms
and locally chaotic seas may occur. Seas are expected to rise to 5-7
feet in the Atlantic today for a brief period before decreasing
tonight into Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 134 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

A high risk for rip currents exists for the Palm Beaches today as
flow shifts back to a northeasterly direction. A moderate risk is in
place for the Broward beaches. Heading into the weekend, the risk
for rip currents is expected to increase for the rest of the
Atlantic coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            83  70  83  72 /  60  30  70  30
West Kendall     85  67  85  68 /  60  30  60  30
Opa-Locka        84  69  85  71 /  60  40  70  40
Homestead        84  70  85  72 /  50  30  60  30
Fort Lauderdale  81  69  82  72 /  60  40  70  40
N Ft Lauderdale  81  70  82  72 /  60  40  70  40
Pembroke Pines   84  70  85  72 /  60  40  70  40
West Palm Beach  80  69  83  70 /  60  40  70  40
Boca Raton       80  69  83  71 /  60  40  70  40
Naples           85  69  84  69 /  30  30  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk from 11 AM EDT this morning through late
     tonight for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF