Tornado in Florida, June 28, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
300 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily maximum heat index values of 100-107 degrees continue
  this week.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day mainly
  during the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Ridging continues over the area at the surface and aloft over the
area this afternoon supporting another round of sea breeze
convection through this evening. Showers and storms again likely
to focus over areas from SWFL through W FL along sea breeze and
outflow boundary collisions, with highest chances likely from
around the I-4 corridor southward later this afternoon as the
WC/ECFL sea breeze converge. This morning's TBW sounding
continued to indicate near-average PWATs and relatively light
winds throughout the column, and along with regional ACARS
soundings indicate an increased easterly component in the SFC-3km
layer winds. Therefore, while storm motions will continue to be
rather slow today, the overall axis of highest PoPs may shift
slightly westward over SW/WCFL compared to yesterday. Stronger
convection will continue to pose an isolated hail or damaging wind
gust threat but overall severe threat remains limited. Highs in
the upper 80s/lower 90s coastal and lower/mid 90s inland.

Pattern aloft over the U.S. continues to amplify, with strong
high pressure becoming established over the E U.S. centered north
of the local area and persisting through the week. The surface
ridge shifts south across the area as a frontal boundary sinks
south across the E U.S. and stalls over the Srn E Seaboard/N Gulf
coast into mid week. Boundary layer flow gradually shifts to W/NW
on Monday then gradually veers to E/NE through Wednesday, with
daily scattered to numerous showers and storms locally. Highest
rain chances shift from northern/central areas on Mon-Tue to
central and southern areas from Wednesday onward as light and
generally easterly deep layer flow becomes established over the
area. Afternoon highs continue to range from the upper 80s to mid
90s, with max heat indices in the lower/mid 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Developing afternoon SH/TSRA will persist into the evening with
brief MVFR/LCL IFR impacts possible. Activity looks to diminish
across northern coastal terminals early evening while lingering
perhaps another hour or two for SWFL terminals as outflow pushes
convection back toward the coast. Winds become light and variable
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Generally favorable marine conditions with winds around 10 knots
or less and seas 2 feet or less. Showers and storms producing
locally higher winds and seas will be the primary hazard through
the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Ample moisture will maintain RHs above critical levels through
the period with winds remaining below 15 mph. Daily showers and
storms may produce locally erratic and gusty winds, otherwise no
significant fire concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  80  94  81  93 /  10  40  20  70
FMY  77  96  78  96 /  10  20  20  60
GIF  76  96  77  95 /  10  50  30  80
SRQ  78  94  79  95 /  10  30  10  60
BKV  75  97  76  95 /  10  30  30  80
SPG  81  94  81  94 /  10  30  20  60

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 2
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 2

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

Hurt