Hail in Colorado, June 3, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
203 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorm chances will continue today with an isolated severe
  storm or two over the plains with damaging winds the primary
  threat.

- Trending warmer and drier for Thursday and Friday with only a
  slight chance of thunderstorms.

- Afternoon high temps to reach the mid 90s across the plains this
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION /Through Wednesday/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over far southeast
Colorado with plenty of high level moisture. This is helping to
produce high level cirrus clouds across the I-25 corridor and
eastern plains. Temperatures are lagging the hourly forecast
temperatures by 1-3 F and instability may end up being slightly
lower than modeled especially from Denver International Airport
and eastward and southward. Water vapor also shows a shortwave
trough over far northwest Colorado which is approaching the
northwestern side of our CWA. This is providing some forcing to
help develop storms over the mountains of Colorado. Storms in
Larimer and Weld Counties may grow strong this afternoon with
strong wind gusts around 55 mph possible. A severe wind gust of 60
mph or two could be reported but this is not a day with an
organized severe threat due to limited wind shear. Another area of
storms may form on a boundary currently in Elbert and eastern
Adams and Arapahoe Counties. Later this evening, a cluster of
storms will eventually work its way through Morgan and Logan
Counties before largely dissipating before it reaches further
eastward.

The shortwaves will move east of Colorado on Thursday with slight
ridging building in aloft. There will be some morning low clouds
or fog in Lincoln and Elbert Counties but the impacts from that
will be minimal. The slight ridging aloft will help turn 700 mb
winds to the west across the plains with warmer temperatures than
today. These conditions will allow the majority of the moisture to
mix out across the I-25 corridor and plains tomorrow leading to
warm temperatures in the upper 80s and drier conditions. Isolated
showers and storms may still develop late tomorrow
afternoon/evening but most of these will have more wind than rain
within them.

Models have decent agreement that storms in Wyoming and Nebraska
will produce an outflow boundary Thursday night that will move
through northeast Colorado Friday morning. This will keep
conditions very slightly cooler on Friday in our forecast area and
will increase moisture. There will be healthy instability across
the plains although it will largely be capped. While there is not
much support from model guidance to show there will be scattered
thunderstorms, it seems more likely than not, strong to
potentially severe storms will develop in Elbert and Lincoln
Counties Friday afternoon.

Flow aloft over the western US will become much more amplified
this weekend. A trough will move onshore over the West Coast and a
ridge will strengthen and expand over the central US. Colorado
will be under the western edge of this ridge which will lead to
compressional heating. High temperatures will soar into the mid
90s in the urban corridor this weekend. The high could get close
to setting a record in Denver with the current forecast of 94
being 1 degree shy of the daily record of 95. A record high likely
won't be set on Sunday as the daily record high is 98.

Monday will likely be cooler with scattered storms around. There
will be a severe threat on Monday but it is too early to tell the
areas that will be most impacted and the strength of the storms.

A mini early season heat wave is possible across northeast
Colorado Tuesday through Thursday of next week. The 75th
percentile on the ECMWF ensembles has a high of 100 F in Denver
for Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday/...
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Isolated
thunderstorms have been occurring in the foothills this morning
with GOES satellite imagery showing increasing cloud cover for all
three sites. By this afternoon, thunderstorms are possible moving
from west to east across the three terminals starting around 20z
and ending around 24z. Any thunderstorms could produce gusty winds
above 30 kts and briefly lowering clouds to around 8000 feet AGL.
Tonight, drainage winds are expected and should be below 10 kts.

Tomorrow will feature increasing high level clouds once again by
midday with winds generally northerly. For tomorrow afternoon,
model soundings show dry lower levels and DCAPE of around 1000
J/kg. Therefore, have introduced a prob30 for some virga showers
that could produce gusty outflow winds to around 30 kts.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Danielson
AVIATION...MV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
1258 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

COZ033-035-031945-
South and East Jackson/Larimer/North and Northeast
Grand/Northwest Boulder Counties Above 9000 Feet CO-Larimer and
Boulder Counties Between 6000 and 9000 Feet CO-
1258 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN LARIMER COUNTY
UNTIL 145 PM MDT...

At 1258 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Glen Haven, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Estes Park, Stove Prairie, Pennock Pass, Glen Haven, Buckhorn
  Mountain and Horsetooth Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rain is occurring with this storm and may lead to flooding. Do
not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4045 10565 4074 10548 4054 10517 4053 10517
      4053 10519 4052 10520 4053 10520 4055 10522
      4054 10523 4054 10522 4051 10521 4053 10525
      4053 10526 4052 10527 4048 10524 4035 10553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1858Z 225DEG 13KT 4045 10552

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MAI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
203 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

COZ037-032045-
Central and Southeast Park County CO-
203 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PARK
COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM MDT...

At 203 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms near Lake George, moving northeast at 8 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Hail may accumulate on roadways causing hazardous
         travel.

Locations impacted include...
  Lake George, Elevenmile Canyon Reservoir and Guffey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Heavy rain is occurring with this storm and may lead to flooding. Do
not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10560 3901 10550 3900 10533 3870 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 237DEG 12KT 3892 10536

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MAI

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Denver CO
254 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

COZ037-032130-
Central and Southeast Park County CO-
254 PM MDT Wed Jun 3 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN PARK COUNTY UNTIL
330 PM MDT...

At 254 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Guffey, moving northeast at 8 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible. Hail may accumulate on roadways causing hazardous
         travel.

Locations impacted include...
  Mainly rural areas of Southeastern Park County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Heavy rain is occurring with this storm and may lead to flooding. Do
not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10543 3891 10537 3891 10533 3870 10533
TIME...MOT...LOC 2054Z 225DEG 13KT 3876 10533

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

MAI