Avalanche and Heavy Snow in California, February 15 to 18, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
114 PM PST Sun Feb 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* One more mild and breezy day today before a major winter storm
  arrives in the Sierra. Complete any travel across the Sierra by
  early this afternoon.

* Snow reaches the Sierra this evening, with the highest snowfall
  rates overnight through Monday evening, then again Tuesday
  afternoon-evening. Multiple feet of snow expected across the
  Sierra.

* Snow impacts could reach western NV foothills as soon as Monday,
  with snow most likely down to valley floors Tuesday afternoon
  and evening. Cold weather and lingering snow impacts continue
  through much of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A significant winter storm is still on track to bring periods of
heavy snowfall to the region starting later tonight through
Wednesday. There are still two parts to this system, with the
first part impacting the area later tonight into Monday evening.
The second half of this system is still expected to be stronger
and colder, and will start late Tuesday morning through Wednesday
morning. Although there is a break in the action Monday night
into Tuesday morning, upslope flow will likely keep persistent
snow showers in the Sierra during this period of time.

----------------------------------------------------

EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA:

Changes: There are no significant changes to the latest forecast
for the eastern Sierra and NE CA. Snow amounts, timing, and
intensity remain similar to the prior overnight forecast thinking.

Confidence: There is currently moderate to high confidence in the
current forecast for the eastern Sierra and northeast CA.

Details:

* Timing: The timing for the two separate periods of heavy
  snowfall are still on track. This first period of snow will
  begin later tonight and will continue into Monday evening. This
  is followed by light upslope snow showers Monday night into
  Tuesday morning. By late Tuesday morning, the next round of
  heavy snow will move into the eastern Sierra and will continue
  into Wednesday morning.

* Snow Rates & Levels: For the first half of this system tonight
  into Monday evening, snowfall rates will likely (>70%) be
  greater than 1" per hour, with at times up to 2" per hour. The
  heaviest snowfall is from Monday morning into Monday evening.
  Snow levels tonight start around 6,000 feet, and will then drop
  as low as 5,000 feet by Monday evening. For the second part of
  this system, snowfall rates may reach 2-3" per hour, with the
  heaviest snow between Tuesday afternoon and evening. Snow levels
  during this part of the system will be below 5,000 feet.

* Snow Amounts & Ratios: During this first stage of this system
  tonight into Monday, the higher elevations around Tahoe
  southward to Mono County crests could see 1-2 feet of snow, with
  5-10" down to lake level. Up to 12" of snow is expected for Mono
  County communities west of US-395 (Mammoth/June Lakes). By the
  end of Wednesday, snowfall totals for the entire system could
  reach 3-5 feet above 7000 feet in the Sierra, and 2-3 feet for
  the Tahoe Basin and Mono County communities west of US-395.
  Areas west of US-395 in Lassen County could see around 6-12
  inches, with up to 2 feet in higher passes. Higher density SLRs
  of 8-11:1 at the storm's onset through Monday morning, then a
  slow transition to a lesser density of 10-13:1 later Monday,
  eventually to a more powdery 14-16:1 as the colder air arrives
  from Tuesday morning onward.

* Winds: South winds increase tonight into Monday with gusts
  upwards of 50-65 mph on the ridgetops. Stronger winds arrive
  Monday evening and continue through Tuesday night. During this
  time frame, gusts of 50-60 mph are likely (>60%) along wind
  prone areas in Mono County, with other areas in the Sierra
  gusting as high as 40-50 mph. Otherwise, ridgetop gusts will
  likely top 100 mph.

----------------------------------------------------

WESTERN NEVADA:

Changes: The main change to the forecast for western NV is the
issuance of a Winter Storm Watch for the greater Reno-Carson
City-Minden area and a Winter Weather Advisory for Mineral, Lyon,
Churchill, and Pershing counties from Tuesday morning into
Wednesday morning.

Confidence: There is currently moderate confidence in the forecast
for western NV.

Details:

* Timing: For the first half of this storm system on Monday,
  precipitation becomes likely (>70%) for much of western NV by
  around 4-6am through around 8-10pm. We then a break in the
  action overnight Monday through around 6-8am Tuesday morning.
  Precipitation is then likely across much of western NV on
  Tuesday through Wednesday morning, with the heaviest
  precipitation late Tuesday morning through the evening.

* Rates & Snow levels: Snow rates on Monday will likely (60%) be
  around 0.25-0.50" per hour, with the heaviest of snow bands in
  the foothills up to 1" per hour. By Tuesday, snow rates will
  increase, with a likely (>60%) chance for at least 1" per hour
  in the foothills and 0.5-1" per hour in the valleys. By far the
  highest uncertainty with this incoming system will be snow
  levels. At this time, snow levels early Monday will start around
  5,500 feet. Levels then drop to around 4,500 feet by the early
  evening. Snow levels on Tuesday are below all western NV
  elevations, and the primary precipitation type will be snow.

* Amounts & Ratios: Snow amounts for Monday will vary between 0-2"
  for the valley floors in far western NV. The foothill locations
  above 5,500 feet may see upwards of 2-4" on Monday. For Tuesday,
  higher snow amounts are likely, with between 8-16" for the
  foothills, 4-8" for western NV valleys, and 3-6" in the inner-
  basins. Snow ratios on Monday are between 5-8:1, and increase to
  10-12:1 for Tuesday onward.

* Winds: Winds will be the strongest Monday night into early
  Tuesday. During this time, southwest wind gusts up to 45 mph are
  likely (>70%), with higher gusts in wind-prone areas.

----------------------------------------------------

THURSDAY ONWARD:

A cold northwest flow will setup over the region as we head into
the later half of the week. This will allow for additional periods
of light snow on Thursday. A drier pattern then emerges by Friday
into next week, but longer range guidance hints at an active
pattern to end February. -McKellar

&&

.AVIATION...

* VFR conditions prevail across the region with a brief clearing
  through early this afternoon. Cloud cover increases later today
  ahead of a major winter storm.

* Lingering FL100 wind gusts up to 50 kt through this morning will
  produce areas of turbulence and LLWS mainly near the Sierra
  terminals. Surface wind gusts up to 20-25 kt this afternoon at
  all terminals before the main storm arrives tonight.

* A major winter storm moves into the Sierra tonight through
  midweek. Widespread aviation impacts for all terminals, with a
  likely (>80%) chance for 2 feet of runway accumulations Monday
  through Wednesday morning. Also expect periods of whiteout
  conditions from blowing snow, especially Tuesday when rates
  increase to 2-3" per hour.

* Western Nevada terminals could see a mix of rain and snow on
  Monday, but less than 10% chance for 1" of snow accumulation.
  Winds and LLWS increase Monday night-Tuesday, with gusts 30-40
  kt at times. A rain-snow mix returns Tuesday morning before
  quickly becoming all snow. Best potential for runway snow
  accumulations Tuesday afternoon and evening, with a 30-50%
  chance for at least 4". -McKellar

&&

.AVALANCHE...

A major multi-day winter storm impacts all avalanche center
terrain starting tonight, with the most widespread and heaviest
snow projected from Monday-Tuesday night.

* CHANGES: There are no significant changes to the avalanche
  forecast since prior guidance last night. Forecast confidence
  remains high.

* Timing/snowfall rates: Snow pushes into SACs terrain by late
  this evening, then reaches BAC/ESAC areas by early Monday
  morning. Snow becomes mainly continuous for all areas, with
  rates of 1-2"/hour at times through Monday afternoon, increasing
  to potentially 2-3"/hour for portions of Tuesday-Tuesday night.

* SWE/Snowfall totals: SWE of 2-4", locally higher up to 5" across
  all avalanche center terrain. Storm total snowfall from tonight-
  Wednesday morning projected to range from 2-4 feet, with
  pockets of 5 or more feet for higher peaks.

* Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR): Higher density SLRs of 8-11:1 at the
  storm's onset through Monday morning, then a slow transition to
  a lesser density of 10-13:1 later Monday, eventually to a more
  powdery 14-16:1 as the colder air arrives from Tuesday morning
  onward.

* Ridge Top Winds: South winds increase tonight and Monday with
  gusts 50-65 mph. The main push of winds arrives Monday evening
  and continues through Tuesday night, with periods of peak gusts
  100+ mph mainly from the southwest. -MJD/McKellar

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Wednesday
     NVZ001-005.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
     Wednesday NVZ002.

     Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night NVZ003.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 4 AM PST Wednesday
     NVZ004.

CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Wednesday
     CAZ070.

     Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
     Wednesday CAZ071>073.

&&