Damaging Winds in Arkansas, May 19, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

 - Numerous showers and storms Tuesday morning into NE OK
   spreading southward through early afternoon. Severe weather
   possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

 - Cooler temperatures Wednesday-Friday with continued low to
   medium rain chances through the remainder of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A line of strong and severe thunderstorms has formed across
southeast KS, along a southeast-advancing cold front that is
currently on the doorstep of the forecast area. The line of
convection has produced a distinct outflow boundary that has
pushed well ahead of the squall line. As long as this stays true,
it will keep any tornado threat just about at zero. Main severe
hazard with this line of storms will be damaging wind gusts, with
isolated large hail embedded. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in
effect for Pawnee, Osage, Washington (OK), Nowata, Craig, and
Ottawa counties until 7 AM. The line is forecast to reach the
I-44 corridor right around sunrise Tuesday, give/take an hour.
Latest consensus in CAMs show some weakening of the line as it
moves southeast of I-44, though pockets of strong and severe
storms will still be possible as the line becomes more diffused.
As it moves into southeast OK late in the morning and into the
afternoon, the combination of daytime heating and existing outflow
boundaries may cause re-intensification in the line; damaging
winds would be the main threat if anything severe develops. The
severe threat will shift south and east of the area by mid-
afternoon, with lingering light to moderate stratiform rain
lingering mainly across southeast OK and northwest AR through the
remainder of the afternoon. Overall, rainfall amounts will vary
from half an inch to around an inch. A few locations may have
amounts closer to two inches with pockets of intense cores
embedded in the line.

Southwest flow aloft with maintain itself through the daytime and
evening on Tuesday. Additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms are anticipated to develop along the 925-850mb
frontal boundary late Tuesday afternoon and evening, mainly across
northeast OK and northwest AR. Severe thunderstorms are not
expected, but an additional rainfall amount up to half an inch
will be possible. Precipitation chances will continue through the
end of the short- term period.

Substantially cooler temperatures will follow the cold front
overnight tonight and during the day Tuesday, with temperatures
falling into the 60s and lower 70s immediately behind the front.
Temperatures across southeast OK and northwest AR could reach the
lower 80s in the afternoon prior to the frontal passage. The front
will exit the forecast area sometime around sunset. Cloud
coverage should stay thick through Tuesday night and should keep
temperatures from plummeting overnight. Regardless, overnight lows
will drop into the 50s and 60s by sunrise Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Consensus in model guidance continues to show a series of passing
mid/upper-level waves through the remainder of the week, through
this upcoming weekend, and even into early next week. As such,
there will be daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through
the long-term period. At this time, flow aloft is expected to be
fairly light and not very supportive of severe weather through at
least Thursday and much of Friday. However, PWATs are expected to
remain abnormally high through the period and the upper-level
waves will likely produce periods of moderate to heavy rainfall at
times. One possible instance of heavy rainfall will occur
Thursday afternoon/evening and into Thursday night as a couple of
shortwaves combine over the area. Another instance of heavy rain
is forecast to occur Friday night into Saturday morning as a more
potent trough passes to the north of the area. Instability and
shear will become a little more defined and a limited severe
threat may develop Friday evening/night as storms are expected to
initiate off a dryline in western OK Friday afternoon and push
eastward into the region later. Better details on timing and
severity will come in later days. An active pattern will persist
Sunday and Monday, with isolated to scattered precipitation
chances each day. Northerly winds and cloud cover (with
precipitation chances) will keep temperatures below average
through Thursday. Temperatures climb back near seasonal average by
Friday before climbing above average by late in the weekend or
early next week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A couple hour period of thunderstorm impacts will affect all
terminals except BVO during the first 6 hours or so of the valid
TAF period, with IFR/MVFR ceilings and gusty northerly winds
behind a cold front. Reduced visibilities should develop this
evening and continue overnight, with a low chance of locally IFR
visibilities that will not be mentioned for now. CAMs continue to
show isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms after 06-08Z,
which will be covered by PROB30 groups at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  57  71  61 /  70  70  20  60
FSM   79  66  80  65 /  90  50  70  50
MLC   77  62  77  65 /  80  50  40  40
BVO   66  52  69  55 /  40  70  10  60
FYV   77  62  75  61 /  80  60  50  40
BYV   77  60  70  59 /  90  70  40  20
MKO   75  59  74  62 /  90  60  30  50
MIO   72  55  68  58 /  80  80  30  50
F10   75  57  73  61 /  80  60  20  50
HHW   78  65  79  65 /  90  50  40  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
423 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229-OKZ049-053-055>071-
073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376-200930-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Northern Crawford-
Northern Franklin-North and Central Sebastian-Southern Crawford-
Central and Southern Franklin-Southern Sebastian-Pushmataha-
Choctaw-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-Tulsa-Rogers-
Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-Cherokee-Adair-
Muskogee-McIntosh-Pittsburg-Haskell-Latimer-Western Osage-
Northern Sequoyah-Northern Le Flore-Northeast Osage-
Central and Southern Sequoyah-Central Le Flore-Southeast Osage-
Southern Le Flore-
423 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...Elevated.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...Limited.
	AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Western Arkansas.
	ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
A line of strong thunderstorms along a cold front moving southward
through the area is located across parts of northeast Oklahoma
early this morning. Thunderstorms will continue to move to the
south and east through the morning and into the afternoon hours,
with potential for both severe weather and heavy rainfall.
Damaging winds will be the main severe weather threat, with
locally large hail possible. The severe weather potential should
diminish by late afternoon as colder air moves in behind the
front.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm and Heavy Rain Potential.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
An active weather pattern will continue through the weekend and
into early next week, with multiple opportunities for additional
showers and thunderstorms. Thursday night and into Friday appears
to feature the best chance for heavy rains as a disturbance moves
through the region and deep layer moisture remains high. Overall
the potential for severe weather is very low for much of the
period, except for possibly Friday night.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
654 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKZ067-068-070-191245-
Muskogee OK-Cherokee OK-Wagoner OK-
654 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN WAGONER...
SOUTHWESTERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 745 AM
CDT...

At 654 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northeast of Porter to 4 miles south of
Tullahassee to 2 miles west of Oktaha. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Muskogee...                       Wagoner...
Fort Gibson...                    Okay...
Hulbert...                        Porter...
Oktaha...                         Braggs...
Taft...                           Tullahassee...
Greenleaf State Park...           Pumpkin Center...
Sequoyah State Park...            Keefeton...
Wainwright...                     Summit...
Redbird...                        Lost City...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3601 9513 3585 9506 3558 9517 3555 9551
      3555 9563 3576 9558 3602 9559
TIME...MOT...LOC 1154Z 256DEG 25KT 3593 9549 3578 9545 3559 9553

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
720 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKZ070-071-074-172-272-191245-
Haskell OK-Northern Sequoyah OK-Central and Southern Sequoyah OK-
Muskogee OK-McIntosh OK-
720 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HASKELL...NORTHEASTERN
MCINTOSH...NORTHWESTERN SEQUOYAH AND SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES
THROUGH 745 AM CDT...

At 720 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 2 miles southeast of Keefeton to 4 miles south of
Warner to near Lake Eufaula State Park. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Eufaula...                        Stigler...
Checotah...                       Warner...
Vian...                           Gore...
Porum...                          Webbers Falls...
Whitefield...                     Oktaha...
Tamaha...                         Rentiesville...
Stidham...                        Briartown...
Greenleaf State Park...           Lake Eufaula State Park...
Lake Tenkiller State Park...      Keefeton...
Kanima...                         Box...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 257 and
297.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9546 3564 9495 3527 9495 3523 9543
      3524 9545 3530 9545 3530 9550 3528 9552
      3527 9551 3526 9553 3534 9578
TIME...MOT...LOC 1220Z 292DEG 35KT 3556 9530 3543 9531 3538 9563

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
723 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

ARZ001-OKZ058-063-191300-
Benton AR-Delaware OK-Ottawa OK-
723 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BENTON...NORTHERN
DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTIES THROUGH 800 AM CDT...

At 723 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 5 miles
northwest of Jay, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime to penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bella Vista...                    Jay...
Grove...                          Gravette...
Bernice...                        Maysville...
Honey Creek State Park...         Bernice State Park...
Dodge...                          Cayuga...
Zena...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3650 9462 3650 9431 3646 9429 3633 9494
      3667 9494 3673 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1223Z 257DEG 41KT 3649 9486

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
727 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

ARZ001-010-OKZ062-063-068-069-191300-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-Mayes OK-
727 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN BENTON...WEST CENTRAL
WASHINGTON...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...SOUTHEASTERN MAYES...NORTHERN ADAIR
AND NORTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTIES THROUGH 800 AM CDT...

At 727 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 3 miles northeast of Leach to Tahlequah. Movement
was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and dime to penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Bella Vista...                    Tahlequah...
Siloam Springs...                 Gentry...
Gravette...                       Decatur...
Westville...                      West Siloam Springs...
Colcord...                        Kansas...
Hulbert...                        Watts...
Oaks...                           Springtown...
Christie...                       Peggs...
Rose...                           Cincinnati...
Hiwasse...                        Leach...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 9429 3584 9453 3588 9518 3631 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 1227Z 265DEG 37KT 3624 9486 3590 9497

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
744 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

OKZ068>071-073-074-172-176-272-191330-
Haskell OK-Northern Sequoyah OK-Central and Southern Sequoyah OK-
Adair OK-Pittsburg OK-Muskogee OK-Northern Le Flore OK-Cherokee OK-
McIntosh OK-
744 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HASKELL...EASTERN MCINTOSH...
SEQUOYAH...SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR...SOUTHERN CHEROKEE...NORTHEASTERN
PITTSBURG AND EASTERN MUSKOGEE COUNTIES THROUGH 830 AM CDT...

At 744 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northwest of Cherokee Landing State Park
to 4 miles northwest of Tamaha to 4 miles southeast of Eufaula.
Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects.

Locations in or near the path include...
Tahlequah...                      Sallisaw...
Stilwell...                       Eufaula...
Stigler...                        Fort Gibson...
Muldrow...                        Warner...
Vian...                           Gore...
Porum...                          Webbers Falls...
Keota...                          Whitefield...
Gans...                           Kinta...
Marble City...                    Braggs...
Tamaha...                         Adair State Park...

This includes Interstate 40 in Oklahoma between mile markers 268 and
317.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 9463 3512 9522 3523 9572 3550 9541
      3588 9520 3584 9455
TIME...MOT...LOC 1244Z 281DEG 28KT 3581 9496 3543 9504 3524 9553

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
758 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

ARZ001-010-OKZ063-068-069-191345-
Benton AR-Washington AR-Adair OK-Cherokee OK-Delaware OK-
758 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT BENTON...WESTERN WASHINGTON...
SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE...NORTHERN ADAIR AND NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE
COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM CDT...

At 758 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 4 miles northwest of Hiwasse to 4 miles south of
Eldon. Movement was east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down small tree limbs and blow
         around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation
         is possible.

Locations in or near the path include...
Fayetteville...                   Springdale...
Rogers...                         Bentonville...
Bella Vista...                    Tahlequah...
Siloam Springs...                 Stilwell...
Jay...                            Lowell...
Farmington...                     Pea Ridge...
Prairie Grove...                  Gentry...
Tontitown...                      Gravette...
Lincoln...                        Cave Springs...
Decatur...                        Westville...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 54 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3639 9387 3639 9388 3638 9389 3637 9388
      3580 9430 3586 9505 3652 9477 3652 9462
      3650 9462 3650 9387
TIME...MOT...LOC 1258Z 272DEG 34KT 3647 9440 3587 9482

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH