Damaging Wind in Arizona, May 24, 2026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1200 PM MST Sun May 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...There will be a chance of weak showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon through Monday. Dry conditions
return by the middle of the week into next weekend. High
temperatures will remain within a couple of degrees of normal.
Expect breezy winds to the east of Tucson Monday and Tuesday,
with breezy to windy conditions across much of Southeast Arizona
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper pattern impacting Southeast Arizona early
this afternoon is defined by a 500-mb upper-low moving into
Southern California and a subsequent 700-mb trough axis aligned
along the Northern Baja. The latest Advected Layer Precipitable
Water (ALPW) imagery indicated modest mid-level SSE winds along
the eastern periphery of the mid-level trough axis is advecting
a deeper plume of mid-level moisture currently residing in
northern Sonora Mexico up into south-central Arizona today. The
combination of this mid-level moisture and the upper-level
diffluent flow with the advancing upper trough will provide
enough support for the development of weak showers and
thunderstorms across our neck of the woods this afternoon into
this evening. This is supported by the latest 24/17Z HRRR which
indicates storms developing across Santa Cruz and far SE Pima
between 1-3 pm MST then expanding across SW Cochsie/ERN Pima and
SE Pinal counties late this afternoon into the evening.

Surface dewpoints across the area range from the mid to upper
40s from Tucson west to the upper 30s east of Tucson. Dry, but
not super dry. In any event, we will likely see strong
evaporation occur within downdrafts today resulting in the
possibility of wetting rains (albeit light) along with some
frisky outflow wind gusts to 40+ mph. The 24/12Z HREF indicated
a neighborhood (within 25 miles) probability of 50 percent for
wind gusts in excess of 30+ kts near thunderstorm between 4-8
pm today. I did modify inherited NBM forecast wind grids to
include some gusts/outflow boundaries as well as include the
mention of patchy blowing dust. I don't anticipate any major
organized dust boundaries to develop, but I do expect localized
reduced visibility near the stronger storms that develop.

Chances of storms will be limited to the eastern forecast zones
near the Arizona/New Mexico state line Monday with the best
lift out ahead of the upper-low moving into New Mexico. The
upper feature itself ejects NE into the Four Corners Monday
night as a stronger upper-low dives SSE along the Pacific
Northwest coastline. Expect dry but breezy/windy conditions
across Southeast Arizona Wednesday and Thursday of next week as
this upper low expands across the Great Basin. This pattern
setup may result in some fire weather concerns for us. In fact,
the SPC indicated a 40 percent probability of critical fire
weather conditions both Wednesday and Thursday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/00Z. SCT clouds at 10k-13k ft AGL
with locally BKN 8k-10k ft AGL with a 10-30% chance of -SHRA/-TSRA
mainly KTUS and east through the forecast period. The storm
motion of the -SHRA/-TSRA will be from the south to the north.
There is a 30-50% chance for erratic and gusty outflows of 30
kts or greater from storms wilt localized VSBY 1-3SM in BLDU.
SFC wind SLY-SWLY 10-14 kts through 15/03Z, then light terrain
driven wind less than 10 kts overnight becoming SWLY 10-14 kts
Monday after 25/18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weak weather system will bring a 10-30% for
thunderstorms and light rain showers from Tucson south, and
then chances shifting and expanding east and northeast of Tucson
this evening into tomorrow with lingering chances along the New
Mexico state line into early Tuesday. Most of this activity
will be a light shower to virga, although there will be the
potential for isolated 'dry' thunderstorms and the threat of
gusty outflow winds and lightning. Rainfall amounts will be
light, generally only trace amounts to less than a tenth, with
the highest precipitation totals forecasted in the White
Mountains at 0.10"-0.30".

High temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of normal
through all of next week. Min RH values will be in the 7-18
percent range in the valleys and in the 14-20 percent range in
the mountains through next week, except on Monday in the eastern
mountains when RH values will be in the 20-40 percent range.
20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less today, with some
afternoon/early evening gusts to around 25 mph. Elevated 20-foot
southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts around 30 mph are
expected Monday and Tuesday across eastern Santa Cruz, Cochise,
Graham and Greenlee counties. Breezy to windy southwest to west
winds then spread across much of southeast Arizona on Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

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