Blizzard in Alaska, February 27 to 28, 2026

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
518 AM AKST Fri Feb 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Near record cold temperatures continue in Northern Alaska with
widespread 30s and 40s below zero. A few spots in the Interior may
briefly reach 50 below zero Friday, Saturday and Sunday morning as
deep cold air remains over the area. The core of the coldest air
should move east heading into next week and this should lead to a
gradual warm up around midweek. The West Coast and Western
Interior will also well below normal through the weekend with a
chance to moderate early to mid next week. On the North Slope, a
front is dropping south bringing blizzard conditions from Friday
morning through Saturday morning along the Eastern Arctic Coast.
Another resurgence of wind and blizzard conditions arrives
Saturday night and continues through at least Monday morning.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Anomalous and deep cold continues in the Interior with lows in
  the Valleys dropping well into the 30s and 40s below zero for
  the next few mornings. Some of the coldest spots, including
  Fairbanks may reach 50 below zero! This is 30 to 40+ degrees
  below normal!

- Light winds less than 10 mph have been present in some valley
  locations which is making for brief wind chill values around 60F
  below zero or colder.

- Afternoon high temperatures rebound each day to about the teens
  to near 20F below zero.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Anomalous and deep cold for late February/early March continues
  into the weekend. Low will reach the 20s to 30s below along the
  coast, 30s and 40s below zero in Interior Valleys and 15F to 30F
  below above 1500ft.

- High temperatures rebound in the afternoons to single digits
  below zero along the coast and around 10F to 20F below zero in
  the Interior.

- Cold air will begin to be eroded away this weekend but
  temperatures will remain around 20 to 30 degrees below normal.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Blizzard Warnings are in effect for the Beaufort Sea Coast from
  Friday morning through Monday morning. Expect wind gusts up to
  50 mph in Nuiqsut and Deadhorse, and 65 mph in Point Thomson and
  Kaktovik.

- Winds increase in the Brooks Range this weekend with
  north/northwest gusts to 45 mph from Friday night through at
  least Monday morning. Expect wind chills to 65 below zero.

- Temperatures remain 15F to 30F below normal into next week.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...

A deep Arctic airmass remains in place over the state, reinforced
by a large upper level trough over the central/eastern Interior
and a 1036 dam surface high pressure. Despite daytime heating and
increasing sun angles, daily diurnal cycles will only be able to
support high temperatures in the teens to 20s below across the
Interior, and single digits to teens below for the West Coast. 850
mb temperatures will remain around 30 below through the weekend,
allowing for overnight lows to fall rapidly into the 30s and 40s
below across the Interior. Interior Valleys may reach as cold as
50 below, with wind chills around 60 below possible.

Alternatively, widespread blizzard conditions are expected to
begin Friday morning/afternoon across the NE Arctic Coast as a
strong upper level low sitting in the Beaufort Sea pushes multiple
rounds of fronts across the Arctic Coast. This system will allow
for a strong pressure gradient to set up over Kaktovik, producing
wind gusts as high as 65 mph. Strong winds and falling snow will
support an extended period of blizzard conditions as far west as
Nuiqsut through the weekend and into next week. Blizzard Warnings
were issued and remain in effect beginning this morning through
Monday morning. As the upper level trough pushes farther south,
the pressure gradient to the north of the Brooks Range is expected
to tighten, especially through the passes. Cold Weather
Advisories were issued for Anaktuvuk and Atigun Pass early
Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for wind chills as cold
as 60 below possible.

Heading into next week, temperatures are expected to improve
slightly with the arrival of some much needed cloud cover, however
confidence is low when it comes to how thick the cloud deck will
be. Either way, models are in agreement with temperatures
remaining largely below seasonable averages through at least
midweek. The West Coast will likely see some relief from these vey
cold temperatures first as an upper level ridge over Siberia
pushes southeast. This ridge will keep temperatures milder across
the West Coast beginning Saturday, and continuing through the
weekend. We will be keeping an eye on strong northerly winds
developing through the Bering Strait as that upper level ridge
quickly tightens up the pressure gradient over the West Coast
early into next week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
The North Slope will continue to see blowing snow, mainly east of
Utqiagvik through the early part of next week as front rotate
around a strong upper trough over the Canadian Archipelago.

Well below normal temperatures persist in the long term, but
there are signs for a warming trend towards the middle and end of
the week. It is a tricky forecast because there are a lot of
moving parts including an arctic trough which will be splitting
over Northern Alaska and Canada. Deterministic models have been a
bit inconsistent in how this breaks down, they all show a piece of
energy breaking off of the main low in Canada, retrograding
across the state from north to south and forming into an upper
low. The question is...where and how does this occur? The ECMWF
develops the low over the Eastern Bering while the GFS is over the
Interior and the CMC is over South Central. This plays serious
dividends in the end as an ECMWF solution would bring warmer
temperatures over the Interior and West Coast and even chances for
snow towards next weekend, while the GFS/CMC would lock us into
well below temperatures through the end of the week. Given how
anomalously cold this is, the models may not be handling it too
well and are trying to nudge it out too quickly. However, one
thing to consider is the potential for a strong (590+ dam) ridge
developing just northeast of Hawaii by midweek. This develops a
bit more quickly on the ECMWF and forces 500mb vorticity
northward. The GFS has the ridge a little weaker and thus
everything is farther south/east with its development. Needless to
say, there is a decent amount of uncertainty but cold weather
should be expected through midweek across much of the state.

Looking further at ensembles, the aforementioned ridge developing
in the Pacific does appear to eventually win out and it has the
potential to bring warmer weather with chances for snow by the
weekend.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ837-848>851.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ804.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ809-810.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Gale Warning for PKZ814.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ859.
     Gale Warning for PKZ860.
&&

Bianco
Santiago - Forecast Analysis and Discussion